Offday Offerings – Not this odd season

There is one less team in the west for the Denver Nuggets to worry about.  Manu Ginobil is out for the season.  I guess all those years of flopping have taken their toll.  How sweet would a second round series against  Manu-less Spurs team be?  I guess this is not their odd season.

No pressure, just play your game…or not

I am writing this at halftime of the national championship game and Michigan State is down 21.

How can Michigan State play this poorly? The entire state of Michigan is in the toilet. They are playing in front of 50,000 fans whose lives completely suck and need them to win more than they need Toyota and Honda to fold. Didn’t they hear all the talk about how big of a game this is for people in Michigan? Even Michigan grads are cheering for them. They only talked about it for two whole days. Don’t they understand how big of a deal this is? The whole state needs them to win so badly. Come one, put the weight of the entire state on your young shoulders.  What is wrong with you guys?

Updated Holicky Projection (pre Manu injury announcement)

The Nuggets are the hottest team in the L over the last 10.  If they go 3-1 over the last 4, they clinch 2nd.  The worst they can now finish is 6th.  If they go 2 and 2 they clinch home court and 3rd (barring something very bizarre.)  In fact, they can lose the next three and then beat Portland in the last game and they get 3rd.

Denver              52-26    4 games remaining.

San Antonio      49-27    Magic Number = 3.

Houston            49-28    Magic Number = 3.

Portland            48-28    Magic Number = 2.

NO                    47-29    Magic Number = 1.

Utah                 47-30    Magic Number = 0.

Dallas               46-31    Magic Number = 0

Suns                 42-35    Magic Number = 0

 

Final standings (see below)

LA 60+ wins

SA 55 wins

Denver 54 wins

Houston 53 wins

Portland 52 wins

Jazz 51 wins

NO 49 wins

Dallas  48 wins

Suns 46 wins

Thoughts

·         If Denver and anyone finish tied for the three seed, and Denver wins the division, Denver wins the tie breaker.

·         Because Denver wins the tiebreaker with Portland and they play the last game of the season, if Denver wins that game they almost certainly finish ahead of them. 

·         If the Nuggets go 3-1 the rest of the way they clinch 2nd. 

·         Utah wins any potential tiebreaker with New Orleans, so first round matchup would be Nuggets/Utah.

·         Sun wins the tiebreaker with the Mavs, so if they end up tied, it goes to the Suns.

 

——————————————-

Denver has 52 wins

Ok City  W

Lakers L

Sacra W

@Portland L

Denver finishes with 54 wins

 

Utah has 47 wins

@ Mavs W

@ Spurs L

Warriors W

Clippers W

@ Lakers W (will the Lakers be shut down?)

Utah finishes with 51 wins

 

Houston has 49 wins

Magic L

@ Kings W

@ Warriors W

Hornets W

@ Mavs W

Houston finishes with 53 wins

 

Dallas has 46 wins

Jazz L

NO W

@ NO L

Timberwolves W

Rockets L

Dallas finishes with 48 wins

 

Suns have 42 wins

@ NO L

@ Grizzlies W

@ Wolves W

Grizzlies W

Warriors W

Phoenix finishes with 46 wins

 

Hornets have 47 wins

@ Heat L

Suns W

@ Mavs L

Mavs W

@ Houston L

@ Spurs L

Hornets finish with 49 wins

 

Portland has 48 wins

@ Griz W

@ Spurs L

Lakers L

@ Clippers W

Thunder W

Nuggets W

Portland finishes with 52 wins

 

San Antonio has 49 wins

@ Thunder W

Portland W

Jazz W

@ Kings W

@ Warriors W

Hornets W

San Antonio finishes with 55 wins. 

Thanks again to Mr. Holicky for putting all of that together for us.

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  • Frontrange

    Last night I went from pulling against SA to pulling for them. I would rather play against them w/o home court in the second round, than play against Houston w/home court.

    Who has the tiebreaker between SA and Houston?

  • Stumbleweed

    No way SA wins out… without Manu and with a gimpy (and possibly resting) Duncan, they’d be lucky to go .500 over the last 6 games. They lost to the Thunder at home with Manu and Duncan playing.. I would love to get them in a 2nd round matchup.

  • CCH

    Don’t look now, were finally getting some love from the national media.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090407

  • rbnugg

    To complement the analysis:
    1 W by Nuggs + 1 L by Blazers = clinchs NW and homecourt.
    2 W by Nuggs + 1 L by Spurs = clinchs 2nd seed.

  • king_couttsy

    Sorry, mate – I just can’t have that. Spurs winning 6 straight with Duncan on one leg, and Ginobili out?? Can’t see it happening.

    I can see the Nuggs splitting their remaining 4 games, but just can’t see the Spurs getting that streak going. They’ll lose tonight against the Thunder (trust me) and can’t see them getting the win against Portland either…

    Lock up that # 2 seed now – I want home court to the Western Conference finals…

  • rbnugg

    OOppsss!!!
    If the Spurs L 1 they can lose SW to Houston, and Houston then would win the tie breaker against the Nuggets and securing the 2nd seed.

    So must be:
    2 W by Nuggs + 1 L by Spurs + 1 L by Rockets = clinchs 2nd seed

  • shampoo

    Literally every team we needed to win tonight lost. Houston beating Orlando and New Orleans beating Miami just made the Nuggets job so hard. So basically we have to root for every long shot underdog against Houston and San Antonio and for the Nuggets to win out from here on. Jeremy any ideas on what the end of the season looks like now?

  • runningdonut

    Still in a good position to win the division, and the important thing is to end up on the favorable 2-3-6-7 side of the playoff bracket.

    I really hope we beat the lakers on thursday :)

  • shampoo

    Oh man, me too donut. Considering how the Nuggets had the Jazz game circled weeks in advance there’s a good possibility they’ve been preparing for this game for awhile. The problem is it is a back to back so beating OKC needs to look like our last match up and not the first two nail biters. Anyways, LETS GO NUGGETS! The Lakers aren’t immortal and we can show them were serious!

  • Josh Hopp

    We didn’t get much help around the league yesterday. The damn Blazers came storming back from a 16 point deficit to beat the Grizz in the final minute, the Rockets won and so did the Spurs. Amazing how a single day can screw with the standings and my confidence. A win today would be huge.

  • rbnugg

    The question for tonight is: Portland or SA? For me it will be better if SA wins. The reason is that we won the tiebreaker against SA, but not against Houston, if houston wins SW. And with Portland losing and the Denver beating OKC we would clinch NW tonight.

  • snafuthai

    Well it took all of 2 days to render these predictions completely and totally false.