2009 Western Conference Finals Game 3: Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers Game Thread

May 23, 2009
by Jeremy

How long can the Denver Nuggets continue their home court dominance?  They have won 16 straight games in the Pepsi Center and so far in the 2009 NBA Playoffs the Nuggets have won each of their six home games by at least 12 points.

Of course the Los Angeles Lakers are not the New Orleans Hornets nor are they the Dallas Mavericks.  As Kobe Brant has enjoyed pointing out after game two the Lakers had the best road record in the NBA at 29-12.  To put that in perspective there were 20 teams who failed to win as many as 29 games at home.

To expect another home blowout might be presumptuous.  Of course, after the four conference finals games that have been played the Nuggets three point win in game two has proven to be the largest margin of victory.  One of these games has to be over before the final possession, right?  If not health care facilities in Denver, Los Angeles, Cleveland and Orlando better stock up on defibrillators. 

After two games I do not know that any of us have a better grip on what to expect.  Was the resurgence of Linas Kleiza for real or was it a one night only special event?  Are Anthony Carter and Dahntay Jones both going to be restricted to spot duty?  Will George Karl trot out the big lineup again?  Will either of these teams run?  Can the Nuggets keep the battle on the boards even or will the Lakers size slowly wear them down?  Is this all we can expect out of J.R. Smith?  Is this all we can expect from Lamar Odom?  Is this all we can expect from Andrew Bynum?  Will Nene be the guy who scored 14 points in the first half of game one or will he be the guy who scored six points in the three halves since then?  How long can Kobe carry this team on both ends of the floor?  Will Phil Jackson demote Derek Fisher from potential game two hero to watching Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown from the padded folding chairs?  Who will blink first Kobe or Carmelo?

Pretty much all we do know at this point is both of these teams seem to be very evenly matched and you do not want to build up a double digit first half lead and end up scoring 103 points.  That has not worked yet.

I believe at this point in the series both teams feel just as confident as they did when the series began.  They are both laying in their beds right now thinking to themselves that they should be up 2-0.  Neither team has landed a blow that has rattled the other.  The only way I see that happening is if one team wins both of the games in Denver. 

As good as the Lakers are on the road, they do not play better there than they do at Staples Center.  On the other hand we can expect the Nuggets to play better than they did in those first two games when they were on the road.  While both teams are confident it is clear that the Nuggets have the advantage until the Lakers knock them off in Denver.  That might happen tomorrow or it may not happen at all. Plus if there was any doubt in the Nuggets’ heads before game one, they have been obliterated.

I am pumped because tomorrow I will be attending my first playoff game since the 2005 series against the Spurs.  If you want to say, “hi” or “you suck, quit blogging” or “go Nuggets” I will be planted in section 342, row 4, seat 1 and I will have my baby blue Nuggets shirt on.  I would love to get a chance to meet some of my loyal readers so if you have a minute stop on by.  I have a good bladder and no desire to pay what it costs for a hotdog and a Sprite Pepsi so I will be there all game long.

Denver Nuggets Game Notes

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Take this with you:  Some numbers for your consideration:

  • Denver is 5-0 in the 2009 playoffs when Chauncey scores 25 or more points and they are 3-4 when he scores 24 or less. 
  • After only averaging three fouls a game over the Nuggets first seven playoff games, Nene is averaging five over his last five games. 
  • Carmelo has five straight 30 point playoff games setting a new Nuggets record.  Over the past 25 years only three players have had longer streaks and they are Shaquille O’Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Michael Jordan all with streaks of six. 
  • Kobe has five technical fouls in the 2009 postseason and if he hits seven he has to sit a game.
Posted on May 23, 2009 at 12:17 am | filed in Game Preview | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — 13 Comments

2009 Western Conference Finals Game 2 Additional Nuggets

May 22, 2009
by Jeremy

And now your additional nuggets from game two of the 2009 Western Conference Finals:

 

  • The one thing I kept thinking in the second quarter when the Lakers were pushing their lead up to 14 was where is Chauncey?  Even after Melo got it going to keep the Lakers from blowing the game open the Nuggets were still down 13 late in the second quarter.  Aside from Kleiza, no one else was stepping up to help Carmelo.  After scoring the Nuggets’ first bucket of the game Chauncey only tallied one more point over the next 17:52 he was on the floor. 

    Just like that, Billups exploded.  Chauncey scored seven points over the final 1:11 of the second quarter, including his brilliant self inbounds pass off Kobe’s back.  Even with Melo and Kleiza hitting shots Denver did not get all the way back in the game until Billups went off.

  • The most impressive aspect of Billups self inbounds play to me was not the pass off Kobe’s back but finishing at the rim with Gasol hovering over his shoulder. 
  • A good friend of mine, who happens to be a big Cincinnati Bearcat fan and I think has a picture of Bob Huggins hanging above his bed, mentioned how I was a little too hard on Kenon after the first game.  He did lead the team in rebounding and I thought when he was guarding either Pau or Bynum that he did a good job of holding his ground and not allowing them to get deep in the post, especially when they had the ball and were trying to back him down. 

    Game two was another matter.  Kenyon did provide the bulk of the Nuggets’ offense early on, but defensively he was just watching the game.  At 8:28 of the first quarter Carmelo missed a fast break three point attempt and Dahntay missed a tip attempt.  The Lakers grabbed the rebound and started down the floor.  Both Kenyon and Nene stayed back never crossing half court on the quasi fast break by Denver.  Fisher brought the ball up and Kenyon met him at the three point line on the right wing.  Chauncey came over to help, but never was able to get in position.  Kenyon slid off of Fisher anyway opening up a lane to the rim. Even though he left Fisher he had inside position on Gasol.  Fisher drove on to the rim where Nene challenged his shot and caused a miss.  For some reason as Fisher drove by Kenyon actually drifted away from the lane sacrificing his position on Gasol and as the shot came off the rim Pau was there to tip the ball in.

    Time and again in the early part of the game Kenyon was just watching the action.  Martin played every second of the first 14:41 and did not have a single rebound to show for it.  Kenyon would play another 2:29 after returning in the second quarter before collecting his first, and only defensive rebound of the game. 

  • One of the segments that was cut from my season preview film room post was how the Lakers usually do a great job of taking advantage of mismatches.  So far this series when Pau has Melo or someone even smaller on him Los Angeles has not done a very good job of getting him the ball.  It is not like them to not go into the post in situations like that.  Look for L.A. to try to take better advantage of the Nuggets switching in the games in Denver.
  • Dahntay Jones almost singlehandedly allowed the Lakers into the bonus committing four fouls in 1:24 early in the game.  Jones defense on Kobe has been less than inspiring and I think Karl has to at least toy with the idea of starting J.R. and bringing Jones in for spot duty on players like Farmar and Shannon Brown.  Brown scares me a little and I think Jones could make things hard on him.
  • Chris Andersen has played decently, but we have not yet seen Birdzilla in this series.  No matter how pumped up he gets at the Pepsi Center for games three and four he is going to have to play better post defense on Pau Gasol in order to earn more minutes.  He can do so by putting his entire forearm in Gasol’s back when he is in the post instead of just a hand.  When you use your hand it is almost impossible to stop a decent spin move (see the 1:41 mark of the first quarter for evidence). 

    Try it with a friend, family member or coworker right now.  Get behind them, put your hand on their back while you are both pushing on each other.  Then have them spin one way or the other.  Next do the same thing with your forearm.  Which one do you think is more effective as a defender?  If you still doubt that I know what I am talking about I can put you in contact with people who can vouch for me in this area.

  • Sandy Clough on 104.3 the Fan in Denver asserted that Anthony Carter was the Nuggets best bench player in game one.  I really respect Sandy and he is typically the most well reasoned and informed Nuggets analyst in the entire world.  If I had been drinking something when I heard him say that, it would have ended up outside the boundaries of my mouth very quickly.  On the other end of the spectrum Nate at Pickaxe and Roll in his game two preview called for Carter to play only the minutes that Chauncey needs to rest. I thought that was a little too far to the other side of the Anthony Carter argument, but George Karl sided with Nate over Sandy. 

    Carter played only six minutes.  It was the fewest minutes he was on the floor all season behind a nine minute outing against Toronto on December 2, 2008 (fondly remembered in Canada as the game that ended Sam Mitchell’s coaching career).  Kleiza definitely ate into Carter’s minutes, but if LK can keep hitting his threes, do not forget he was 7-14 from behind the arc against the Hornets in round one, Carter will not have much of a role in this series.  Plus with Denver possibly going big with Melo and Kleiza as the swingmen instead of AC and J.R. as we have seen in the small lineup that had success against Dallas it will relegate AC to strictly the few minutes of backing up Chauncey he received in game two.

  • There has been some discussion in the comments of the game two recap regarding how biased Jeff Van Gundy has been in favor of the Lakers.  My two cents is that I try to come up with insights that were not discussed during the game because anyone who watched the game, which is most of you, already knows it.  During game two I lost track of how many times I thought I need to write X only to have Mark Jackson or Jeff Van Gundy go on to mention that very X I wanted to comment on seconds later.  I think they are doing a very good job. 

    While I appreciate Scott Hastings, I think he gets a little too consumed with the officiating.  I wish we had the option of watching the game on Altitude, but as far as national commentators go Van Gundy and Jackson are doing a good job of pointing out important details during the game. 

    I did not realize that Van Gundy had picked the Lakers in five, but in his defense, when you come out and say something, and you know a lot of people are going to hear/read it, you want to be right.  If you follow fantasy football and read the work of Matthew Berry on ESPN.com you will know that he would rather be right on a prediction than be wrong and as a result have one of his fantasy teams win that week.  There is a high premium on accuracy whether it be in post game analysis or in making future projections.  Of course, everyone who prognosticates in public will be proven wrong at some point, but we do not have to like it.

  • It is not always the announcers that point out aspects of the game I intended to mention, sometimes readers do it too.  Jakester pointed out that the Lakers had three shot clock violations in the third quarter so I guess now I do not have to.
  • I have heard quite a bit of consternation about how the game was called last night.  Of course, fans on both sides felt their team was treated unfairly.  All I will say is I thought there was a lot of inconsistency.  The game would be called tightly for a few minutes, and then they would let them go at it for a while and I thought it was like that all night long.  However, I do not think the officials played a role in the outcome of the game whatsoever.
  • It is obvious that most fans are not pleased with how games are officiated so let’s make a change.  The NBA added a third referee in the 1988-89 season why not add a fourth and try to cut down on the responsibilities that each man or woman has?  Could it hurt?  It would at least show that the league is trying to address the issue.  What do they have to lose?  The extra money they spend in salaries and travel expenses would be well worth it if it could improve the quality of officiating.
  • By the way, I did a search for the term NBA switches to three referees and the second link that came up was my recap for game three against Dallas.  That was not what I intended that post to be about.

Mindboggling Game Stats

Pace Factor:  91.3 – Not much running with 15 combined fast break points.

Defensive Efficiency:  112.8 – Getting a little high, but not too bad.

Offensive Efficiency:  116.1 – Very solid performance.

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Make sure to check out the firsthand account posted by Jezru at Pickaxe and Roll!  Good stuff.

 

Posted on May 22, 2009 at 5:12 pm | filed in Analysis, Game Recap | Tags: , , , , , , , , , — 1 Comment

2009 Western Conference Finals Game 2: Denver Nuggets 106 – Los Angeles Lakers 103

May 22, 2009
by Jeremy

Box Score | Highlights

I wrote after game one there should be no question the Denver Nuggets are a capable opponent for the Los Angeles Lakers.  If there were still any doubters the Nuggets’ 106-103 game two victory has permanently closed debate although at this point the only people who needed convincing of the Nuggets’ prowess were the most hardcore Lakers fans.

It cannot be overstated how much the Nuggets are playing in the playoffs.  They never played this well for this long during the regular season.  With there being so much pressure, both internally and externally, to get out of the first round I believe this team was really chomping at the bit for the playoffs to start from the time they acquired Chauncey.  George Karl said on multiple occasions that he thought Denver would explode once they made it past the first round.  Well, he was absolutely right.  The early success against the New Orleans Hornets has fired this team to an entirely different level of confidence.  I lost track of how many times I heard analysts talk about how the Nuggets were a team comprised of knuckleheads.  If you let knuckleheads taste success they become very dangerous just like in Bad News Bears. 

Both teams were a little sluggish to start the game.  After a relatively uninspiring first six minutes the Lakers slowly began to take control thanks to some seriously lazy play by Denver.  Time after time Denver was beaten back in transition or standing and watching as a Laker player retrieved a missed shot and placed it snuggly in the basket.  Things looked bleak as we were witnessing all the worst aspects of game one with an extra lack of interest thrown in for good measure. 

Things slowly began to turn around in the middle of the second quarter.  The catalyst was Carmelo Anthony.  Melo started the game 1-6, but somehow willed himself into the zone (at least inside the three point arc).  With the Nuggets down 14 Melo came out of a timeout and proceeded to pour in the Nuggets next 14 points in order to ensure they did not fall further behind.  I think it was an incredibly significant moment in Carmelo’s career and you can read more about it here (#3). 

While Melo kept Denver close with his scoring it may have been his recommendation that George Karl reinsert Linas Kleiza into the game with just under four minutes left in the second quarter that actually turned the tide.  Karl complied and for the first time I can remember Denver went big. 

The Nuggets had a lineup of Nene, Kenyon, Kleiza and Carmelo all on the floor with Chauncey.  The Lakers did not get another offensive rebound for the rest of the quarter and Denver closed the half out on a 14-2 run.

There are a lot of Nuggets fans out there who have a strong dislike for Kleiza. He definitely regressed this season and he is typically a complete liability if his three point shot is not falling, which it has not been for months.  I myself have been considering him nothing more than an asset to be traded in the offseason.  Kleiza likes playing against the Lakers and he had a nice series against them last season.  With J.R. clearly limited the Nuggets need someone off the bench to score.  Kleiza might end up becoming a difference maker in this series.  Kevin Arnovitz of ClipperBlog and TrueHoop fame has a nice segment on Kleiza in the Daily Dime (#8). 

Love him or hate him you have to admit without Kleiza the Nuggets are down 0-2 in this series.  What I loved about Kleiza’s play, I have definitely not written that in a very long while, was he knew Denver needed to keep the Lakers off the offensive glass and he was in the lane right at the rim on every shot attempt.  His effort bore fruit as he pulled down eight big first half rebounds.  His example was able to convince his teammates how important it is to swarm the paint.  The Nuggets actually collected more offensive rebounds than the Lakers did, 14 to 13, and the total rebound battle was a virtual tie as well with L.A. claiming one more rebound than Denver, 43-32.

The Nuggets also remedied their free throw shooting although things were ugly early on again.  Denver actually made 17 straight free throws and 18 of their final 19.  The one miss sent hearts racing as it gave the Lakers the chance to tie the game up with a final desperation heave by Derek Fisher.  Nene did a great job of fighting through an arm tackle by Paul Gasol and challenging the shot.  He forced Fisher’s typically high arcing shot to a slightly higher trajectory than intended and the shot fell a foot or two shy of the mark. 

It was a great win and I just cannot get enough of Carmelo right now.  There is still room for improvement. He attempted a ridiculous number of threes, six, that left me begging for him to stop chucking them up.  Those six three point attempts unduly drove his shooting percentage down.  Carmelo ended up converting 12 of 23 two point attempts, which is very impressive.  Melo also had a couple of very bad turnovers coming down the stretch.  One was a pass directly into the teeth of the defense with no obvious recipient in the vicinity.  The other he over dribbled moving at a snail’s pace on the perimeter coming off a screen and allowed Ariza to swoop in from behind and take the ball. 

Even so the will and determination Carmelo is displaying is a new side we have not seen in the past.  We all know Melo is competitive, you have to be in order to play at the highest level.  What he has added is that will to succeed and to win and it is reflected in everything he does.  Last season in the first round series against the Lakers if Melo found himself on Kobe, you could see him looking to switch off at the earliest possible moment.  He has done a complete 180 as he now welcomes the challenge and is doing a pretty darn good job. 

There was some consternation at the end of the game as there was a controversial jump ball resulting in a Laker turnover. 

I watched the jump ball at the end of the game in super slow motion multiple times and the lane violation that the officials supposedly missed on J.R. was not nearly as clear cut of a call as the announcers and pundits would have you believe.  J.R.’s first step was actually outside the circle and by the time his second step touched the ground inside the circle Gasol had already swiped at the ball, although he did miss it.  yes, J.R. was in the circle before the ball was touched, but if you are going to stick to the letter of the law, the player who first set foot inside the circle was Lamar Odom who had his foot over the line before J.R. touched down inside the area in question. 

The Lakers wanted Carmelo to be called for a foul after Ariza had gained possession.  What happened, once again thanks to super slow mo technology, was Ariza’s left foot landed on Odom’s left foot and when Odom took a step it caused Ariza to lose his balance.  Melo did not push Ariza.  It was a very good no call.

There is much more to discuss, but I must get at least some sleep tonight.  It is a shame I did not get to talk about Chauncey at all yet, but look for additional bullets sometime on Friday.

With tonight’s win game three just became much more exciting.

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Posted on May 22, 2009 at 2:59 am | filed in Game Recap | Tags: , , , , , , , , , — 20 Comments

2009 Western Conference Finals Game 2: Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers Game Thread

May 21, 2009
by Jeremy

ESPN 360 Links:  NBA Shootaround | Game 2 Live

A few more game one thoughts as we prepare for game two:

  • How nice was it to have a physical game played where neither coach was complaining about how the game was called in his postgame press conference.  Yes, that is directed at you Byron Scott and Rick Carlisle.
  • I have read in several places, including the Denver Post (although the article was by Anthony Cotton, not Hochman or Dempsey) that the Nuggets’ front line of Nene, Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen won the battle against their Lakers counterparts because they outscored them 37-26.  I am not sure why Josh Powell’s four points do not count when adding up the scoring by the Lakers’ bigs, but whatever helps make your case.  If that was winning the battle, I do not want to see what will happen if the Nuggets loose that matchup.  Nene did not score a point in the second half, not that his 14 first half points did not count, and he pulled down only four defensive rebounds.  To put that in perspective Pau Gasol had six offensive boards.  The Nuggets’ bigs held their ground well, but to say they outplayed the Lakers’ big men is just wrong.
  • Chauncey Billups said that he wished he could have received the inbounds pass when Denver inbounded the ball with 5.8 seconds left in the game.  His direct quote was:

    “They did a good job. I couldn’t get it.”

    Following Chauncey’s second three pointer with 6.0 seconds remaining Carmelo was all over Kobe trying to deny him the ball, but Kobe ran directly to the inbounder to make sure he received the pass.  On the play Chauncey was recounting the Lakers did not defend him any more vigorously than Melo did Kobe.  The difference was Chauncey ran parallel to the baseline about ten feet away instead of running to the passer to make sure he could receive the ball. 

  • In the same quote he goes on to say that he wished he had either had the ball or told J.R. to shoot when it appeared the Lakers were going to foul him to get three free throws.  It sounds nice, but nearly every referee in the world is going to call that foul on the floor no matter how quickly you get your shot up after they grab you.  If you go into your shot too early, then they can layoff and just watch as you chuck a running 40 footer.  The Lakers were not going to make the same mistake Antoine Wright made by fouling too early or too lightly.
  • When you have to bring the ball up the floor in that situation and the other team has decided to foul, there is not much you can do.
  • That brings me to another point.  Denver ran out of timeouts at the end of the game.  With 7:33 left in the fourth Carmelo was trapped along the sideline and instead of bouncing a pass between the defenders to Nene he held the ball and called a timeout.  At the time my wife asked if that was a good idea and my response was that it was fine as long as they did not run out of timeouts at the end of the game.  Well, it turned out to be a big decision by Carmelo.  Picture how much different that final play could have been with Denver inbounding the ball from their end of the court with the recipient in position to shoot as opposed to having to bring it up the length of the floor.
  • I am sick and tired of talking about the turnover on the inbounds play by Anthony Carter, but I thought one of the TNT analysts, I think it was Kenny Smith, made a good point about how Chauncey could have run into the backcourt to get the pass.  If he keeps running and Carter leads him away from Ariza that would have been another way to prevent the turnover.
    I have defended Karl’s decision to put Carter in the game, but I noticed just 20 seconds later with the Nuggets inbounding the ball in the same spot on the floor Birdman was in instead of Carter and Kenyon was the inbounder.  It was a different situation with Denver down four and needing a three instead of down two and maybe that played a role in who was on the court, but it merits mentioning that Karl did not have AC out there.
  • I am already sick and tired of the moron who always wears yellow and sits just to the right of the Lakers’ bench.  He is constantly arguing correct calls like a child and stands up and claps his rolled up program.  By wearing yellow he can make sure he is visible and show everyone how much of a fan he is.  The guy drives me nuts.

That is enough of game one.  It is funny how I can write so much about something that was so frustrating.

With game two on the horizon I could not sleep last night. 

Despite being completely worn out I laid in bed for almost two hours before I nodded off.  Game two is not necessarily a must win, should the Nuggets lose I can definitely see them winning both games in Denver and tying the series at two.  However, if they go down 2-0 and have to win four of the remaining five games I do not see any way they win this series.

That being said, I think we see the Nuggets play their best all around game tonight and I even went so far as to predict a Nuggets victory.  The one disclaimer I will make is if J.R. Smith is clearly limited by his calf strain, which I have still heard referred to as a knee injury in more than one place, it will require Carmelo and Chauncey to both have big nights.

Much of the analysis of game two centers around how Melo will surely not be able to score so easily and that bodes well for Los Angeles.  I agree that Melo will not shoot 14-20 and 4-5 from downtown, but I will not be surprised to see him put up another 30 point game.  He may have to work harder to get to the rim and not settle for so many jumpers, but he can score on this Lakers defense and on Kobe. 

What was most impressive about Kobe’s offensive performance in game one was that he was able to do it while working so hard on defense.  Even so, there were times, especially when he was guarding Chauncey, that Denver chose to go away from him.  In game two, whoever Kobe is being guarded by must attack him and make him expend energy.  He cannot carry this team on both ends of the floor over a seven game series. 

Los Angeles can only get away with moving Kobe from guy to guy as long as players like AC and Dahntay are on the court who can be covered by Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar or Shannon Brown. 

When it comes to keeping the Lakers off the offensive boards it will require a conscious effort by everyone on the floor.  We talk about team defense, but seem to consider rebounding an individual effort.  Rebounding is also a team skill and against a team like the Lakers requires all five players to do their part.  The bigs must do a better job of clearing space, but that is easier said than done.  Gasol in particular is very good at prepositioning himself for offensive rebounds before the defender realizes the shot is going up. 

The guards need to either crash the lane if the shot is from the lane or get to the elbows if it is a longer shot so that they are in position to chase down a long rebound.

Other than the rebounding both Nene and Kenyon did a solid job on defense.  They continually forced Gasol off the block and keeping him a little further out than he likes to operate.  They did a lot of switching, which was fine as the Lakers did not look to post Bynum on Kenyon when the Nuggets did so.  If L.A. decides to go at Martin when he switches onto Bynum, Denver will probably have to double him.

When it comes to double teams Denver would obviously prefer not to have to double anyone.  However, they seemed like they were prepared to double Kobe after he put the ball on the floor and they showed some desire to have a guard come down to dig at Gasol in an effort to force him to pass. 

When the Nuggets do double team they must be prepared to rotate.  Gasol is an excellent passer and when Odom is in the game the Lakers have four players all capable of hitting three pointers on the floor at the same time. 

Another way to keep the Lakers from getting open looks from behind the arc is to get back better in transition.  On a couple of different occasions in the second half of game one Kenyon was stuck guarding Fisher in the corner.  Of course, Kenyon wants to be ready to help on a drive or rebound so he stays as close to the lane as possible.  The result is Fisher is left open and he made Denver pay. 

Both team also need to do better at running when the opportunity presents itself.  They combined for 14 fast break points in game one.  I expect both teams to top that mark in game two.  Of course, if Denver cannot garner any defensive boards they are not going to be able to run.  That is another reason why limiting the Lakers’ offensive rebounds is so important.

I do believe the Nuggets will win.  I honestly had a bad feeling about game one.   I was excited before the game, but not the kind of excited you are before opening a birthday present.  It was the kind of excited you get when you have to line up to run suicides for conditioning.  That is bad excited. 

For game two I feel a little more as if I am going to get a present tonight and less like I am going to be sprinting for a good 20 minutes.

Denver Nuggets Game Notes

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Take this with you:  Denver was able to get Bynum in foul trouble because they were not afraid to attack him.  J.R. and Melo both drew fouls by going right at him.  They will need to continue to do so tonight.  Nene fouled out in game one and he must do a better job of avoiding contact when he is covering the pick and roll. He uses his hips too much to slow down the ball handler and referees will call that every time.

Posted on May 21, 2009 at 12:51 pm | filed in Game Preview | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , — 42 Comments

2009 Western Conference Finals Game 1 Additional Nuggets

May 20, 2009
by Jeremy

The highly anticipated additional nuggets from game one of the Western Conference Finals:

  • Nuggets fans are very upset that George Karl subbed Anthony Carter in the game in place of Chris Andersen.  If Carter does not throw the ball away no one bats an eye at the substitution and despite the fact he was being covered by Lamar Odom, there is no reason other than sloppiness that his inbounds pass was stolen.  There was 30 seconds left on the clock and I think Karl wanted to get a quick shot in three or four seconds for Carmelo Anthony or Chauncey Billups so that the Lakers did not have a chance to run the clock out for the final shot in a tie game.  That pass by Carter will probably haunt his dreams for the rest of his life.  I know it will haunt mine.
  • There are a lot of plays you can highlight in a two point loss that could have been the difference between a win and a loss, but other than the debacle down the stretch there was one sequence that keeps bugging me.  At the end of the first half the Nuggets have the ball with the shot clock off.  In that situation you should never give the opponent the ball back with more than two seconds left.  Carmelo has had a problem with managing the clock in that situation his entire career.  Last night he started his move to the basket with 13 seconds on the clock.  Sure he made a nice play and earned Kenyon a dunk, but the Lakers were left with 8.4 seconds left in the half and of course Derrick Fisher drained a three from the corner.  Giving the Lakers that much time is unacceptable and Denver paid for that mistake dearly.
  • In the middle of the fourth quarter J.R. hit a three to put Denver up 84-79 it was a big shot and the Nuggets had overcome a four point deficit and were building momentum.  At the other end Pau is posting up Nene and has moved into the middle of the lane.  Meanwhile Jordan Farmar is running along the baseline.  Instead of staying with Farmar Anthony Carter decides to double Pau for no reason whatsoever.  Pau kicks a pass out to the wide open Farmar and he drills the three.  Denver did not double very much, but when they did the Lakers seemed to take advantage of it.
  • Later in the game with Denver once again up five, 94-89, AC and Andersen trapped Kobe along the sideline.  Kobe passed to Pau, Birdman’s man, at the elbow forcing Melo to leave Ariza to cover Gasol.  Pau passed over to Ariza and Kenyon did not rotate up resulting in an open three that swished through.  The sad thing is had Kenyon rotated up to Ariza, Birdman was already running from the left wing where he had trapped Kobe, to the right corner where Kenyon had left Fisher.  Everyone did their job, but one player and it cost Denver three points.
  • The Nuggets offense looked incredible in the first quarter.  They were constantly moving and making great passes.  As the game wore on the Lakers increased their defensive pressure and the Nuggets quit looking for those little holes to exploit.  Earlier in the season the big story surrounding the Lakers was how they were playing great defense.  They lost some of that mojo as the season wore on, but L.A. is certainly capable of playing very good defense for prolonged periods of time. 
  • One thing I failed to mention in my recap was one of J.R.’s four misses from the line was his intentional miss at the end of the game.  That does not excuse his other three misses, but he was 2-5 when trying to make it which is nowhere near as bad as 2-6.
  • As was reported first in the live chat, J.R. has hurt his right calf.  He is probable for Thursday, but if he is limited at all it will be difficult for Denver to win.
  • Staying with J.R. he definitely shot horribly.  He missed an open layup, left a ten foot jumper a good two feet short and of course there were his missed free throws.  Mix in the two or three bad turnovers he had and it was difficult to watch.  He was clearly nervous as he did not attempt a three point shot until he had been on the floor for more than 15 minutes.  However, he played as good of defense on Kobe as any other Nugget, and did a very good job rebounding the ball.  He ended up with more defensive rebounds, five, than Nene or Carmelo, four each.
  • Kenyon has a fractured ring finger on his left hand and he is probable as well.  I do not foresee this as being too big of a deal.  Kenyon can handle the pain.  Easy for me to say!
  • Continuing with rebounding Nene, Kenyon and Birdman are going to have to really step up on the defensive boards.  The Lakers do a great job of hanging around and tipping the ball around.  One thing the Nuggets might be able to do to get them to back off is to run more.  If the Nuggets keep getting easy baskets in transition L.A. is going to have to stop being so aggressive and send more players back on defense when the shot goes up.
  • I get tired of how officials call jump balls in the NBA.  Chris Andersen missed a shot with 1:00 left on the clock in the fourth quarter and there was a fight for the rebound.  Birdman finally recovered the ball, but was spooned from behind by Lamar Odom who was awarded a jump ball even though I do not think he was making any contact with the ball whatsoever.  If anything the referee should have thrown up Birdman and had Odom and the ball try to gain control of him.  Why is it that the rules go out the window as soon as a player is on the floor with the ball?  The only time I have seen a foul called in that situation was when Melo was whistled for trying to tie up a Mavericks player, I think it was Kidd, in Dallas.  Sometimes the contact that goes down in that situation would draw an unnecessary roughness penalty in football.
  • We talked about this in the chat, but I want Kobe to be suspended for game two so let’s keep it going.  There is no way to know for sure, but early in the fourth quarter when Kobe hurt his finger trying to catch a pass it sure looked like he loaded up before running into Kenyon.  We all know Kobe lashes out briefly when he gets angry (remember the forearm to Manu Ginobili’s face a couple of years back after Manu blocked his shot?) and I think there is a possibility that the way he swung his arm he may have slammed into Kenyon’s nether regions deliberately.  ESPN deserves kudos for actually showing the replay a couple of times although none of the announcing crew actually questioned Kobe’s intent.  Kenyon has been punished unfairly for his past, for example his $25,000 fine for his little push of Dirk in the previous series, so why is this not looked at with more suspicion because of Kobe’s past? 
  • Before the series I marked a bunch of clips to put together for my film room preview, but I did not have time to put all of them in.  A couple of those clips were of the Lakers’ full court pressure.  Los Angeles applied the press to start the second quarter and Denver abruptly passed the ball up the floor and J.R. drew a foul on Bynum.  The Lakers stuck with it though and I think it did disrupt the Nuggets offense a little bit. 

Mindboggling Game Stats

Pace Factor:  94.6 – Pretty high considering all of the Lakers’ offensive rebounds prolonged many of their possessions.

Defensive Efficiency:  111.0 – Decent, but not great.  The Nuggets held L.A. to 41.1% shooting for the game which goes to show how all of those offensive rebounds let the Lakers off the hook.

Offensive Efficiency:  108.9 – That is the Nuggets’ second worst rating of the playoffs behind their 106.4 in game three at New Orleans.

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Posted on May 20, 2009 at 4:31 pm | filed in Analysis, Game Recap | Tags: , , , , , , , , — 6 Comments

2009 Western Conference Finals – Live Chat with Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold

May 20, 2009
by Jeremy

We are going to chat with Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold today at 2:00 PM Mountain time.  We will dig into game one of the Western Conference Finals series between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers and will look forward to game two.  Get your questions for Kurt and I ready!

 
Posted on May 20, 2009 at 1:55 am | filed in Analysis, Live Chat | Tags: , , , — Comments Off

2009 Western Conference Finals Game 1: Denver Nuggets 103 – Los Angeles Lakers 105

May 20, 2009
by Jeremy

Box Score | Highlights

For the first time in the postseason the Denver Nuggets trail in a series.  There are two ways to look at tonight’s 105-103 loss at the hands of the Los Angeles Lakers.  Either Denver proved that they can hang with the Lakers and good things are ahead or the Nuggets proved that even when Carmelo plays what may have been the best game of his career and Denver outplays the Lakers for a vast majority of the game they still cannot win in Los Angeles.

There is some pretty good evidence to support both sides of the argument.

In the Nuggets’ favor if there was any question that Denver was going to be a match for Los Angeles, the debate is over.  Denver is playing at a much higher level than they did at any time during the regular season.  There were a couple of points in the game where the regular season version of the Nuggets would have fallen apart and been knocked out early.

On the other hand, this game set up perfectly for Denver.  They got out to a quick lead to build their confidence.  Andrew Bynum was in foul trouble for most of the night.  Carmelo played an absolutely incredible game and they had a lead late in the proceedings.  It is difficult to imagine Denver having as good of a chance to win in Los Angeles as they did tonight.

If Denver does rebound and win game two (or game five or game seven) in L.A. it will be because of Carmelo.  Melo was nothing short of amazing in game one.  Offensively he not only continued his hot shooting, but he went nova.

Carmelo drained 14 of his 20 attempts including 4-5 from behind the arc.  Before the series I suggested that Melo and the Nuggets had figured out the Lakers’ defense, but I never expected him to go from completely contained as he was for the first three games this season to finding the cracks as he did in game 80 that was featured in my film room segment to being completely dominant as he was tonight.

Unfortunately, Carmelo was not much of a factor in the closing seconds.  Following a charge call at the 2:07 mark, Anthony did not get another touch for the rest of the game.  Kobe deserves some credit for that as he treated him like an employee at Cordillera (sorry, I could not resist), but the Nuggets consistently went away from him.  Nevertheless, I think we can safely expect Carmelo to have a big series and as a result Denver is going to put up a big fight against L.A.

The sad thing is this game was the Nuggets’ to lose after Chauncey hit his first of two huge threes in the closing minutes at the 1:38 mark to put Denver up 99-97 and they lost it.  A monsoon of mistakes down the stretch undid 46 minutes of tremendous effort. 

The downslide started when on the ensuing Lakers’ possession the Nuggets forced a bad three by Derek Fisher, but Nene got out of position on Gasol, who of course went to the rim for the rebound, and as a result Nene chose to do the Paso Doble and gave Gasol an earnest embrace.  If Nene did not realize it before, he now knows you cannot make a play on a rebound with both hands snuggly attached to a seven foot Spaniard.  Nene’s grasp did not prevent Pau from grabbing the ball though, which he did, and was fouled.  Pau made both free throws to tie the game. 

At the other end of the floor Chris Andersen, in the game for Nene who fouled out in 32 minutes of floor time, missed a short attempt badly triggering a free for all for the basketball.  A jump ball was called and Los Angeles gained control.  Melo forced Kobe into a missed jumper, but Gasol prevented Chauncey from collecting the rebound giving the Lakers yet another second chance. 

They capitalized on that second chance thanks to a bonehead reach by Kenyon Martin.  After Melo failed to fight through a screen from Gasol as vigorously as he had on previous possessions and that forced Kenyon to switch onto Kobe.  Martin did a good job, but chose to reach for the ball resulting in a predictable foul.  Kobe made both free throws putting the Nuggets down two.

Next came the play that made even junior high players queasy.  Anthony Carter was inserted into the game for Andersen and it was his job to throw the ball inbounds.  There were three huge errors on the play that for all intents and purposes ended the game.  George Karl drew up a play for Carmelo who set up on the right block and ran off a triple screen towards the ball.  Gasol, he has popped up a quite a bit in these closing possessions, stepped out and covered Melo preventing him from coming open for the pass.  Mistake number one occurred at this point as Carter did not turn to look at option two, Chauncey coming off a double screen, soon enough.  He was still looking at Carmelo when Chauncey came open.

Mistake number two was the weak floating pass that Carter threw to Chauncey.  He was being covered by the 6’ 10” Odom and for some reason Carter decided instead of making a high ball fake to get Odom’s hands in the air and following it up by throwing a crisp bounce pass the best pass for the situation would be a high floater over the head of the lanky defender.  It was just an abominable pass, one that a halfway decent junior high player would never think of throwing. 

As the ball hung in the air with Trevor Ariza closing quickly there is still hope for Denver.  Chauncey simply has to come towards the ball to cut off Ariza’s angle.  Doing so would result not only in Chauncey receiving the pass, but probably a foul as well with Ariza running at the ball in fourth gear.  Enter mistake number three as Chauncey was actually fading away from the pass.  Everything went wrong for Denver and Ariza took the ball up the floor.

There was still hope for Denver as there was roughly a five second difference between the game clock and shot clock.  If they could get one more stop, they would have a chance to tie or win in the closing moments.  Carter made one last mistake as he lunged at the ball, he did not reach, he lunged, which Kobe was dribble with his right hand.  A quick between the legs crossover from Kobe’s right hand to his left allowed him plenty of room to drive past Carter leading to another foul before he could reach the rim.  

Two more free throws and the Nuggets were down four.  An amazing Billups’ three from the corner brought Denver to within one, but two more Kobe free throws pushed the lead back up to three.

Los Angeles fouls J.R. Smith before he can get a potentially game tying three off.  J.R. makes the first free throws and misses the second, but Denver could not collect the carom.  Over the final 1:38 the Nuggets made numerous mistakes.  Basic principles of boxing out, playing defense with your feet and not your hands and making the correct pass went out the window and little details like that cost the Nuggets a huge game one win.

There is also the little issue of free throw shooting.  Denver took 11 more free throws than the Lakers did, but they only converted three more than L.A.  That is not good.  The two biggest offenders were J.R. Smith who shot 2-6 and surprisingly Chauncey who missed his first three before making the next six.  If Denver can just muster shooting 71.5%, 25-35, they get the two points they were missing.

Denver did a lot of things right.  Their offense in the first quarter was exceptional with great ball movement even though it fell off quite a bit as the game wore on and the Lakers’ defense awoke.  Despite Kobe’s large point total, they did a decent job of keeping him out of the lane for most of the game and Denver did not allow the Lakers to get many easy buckets in transition or in their early offense. 

Unfortunately there were some pretty serious things that went wrong too.  Even though Bynum did not play much, the Lakers still dominated in the area of offensive rebounds.  The Lakers collected over 36% of their missed shots.  The league average is right around 25%.  Kobe proved to be too much for Dahntay Jones to handle and despite his best efforts Anthony Carter did not get the job done either.  Even without trying to double much the Lakers took 25 threes and made 11 of them good for a 44% conversion rate.

The really frightening news is J.R. Smith sprained his knee on the final play where the Nuggets were fighting to gain control of his missed free throw.   The official word from the Nuggets is vague as they say his status will be updated sometime on Wednesday.

Look for additional thoughts tomorrow, or actually later today.

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Posted on May 20, 2009 at 1:20 am | filed in Game Recap | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — 3 Comments

2009 Western Conference Finals: Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers Game Thread

May 19, 2009
by Jeremy

Watch the game live online on ESPN360!

I was intending to put together some final thoughts on the series and then post some game one insights in a game thread, but sadly we are running out of time so I am going to have to combine both into one final pre-series post.

In my previous posts I have focused on matchups such as Bynum and Gasol versus Kenyon and Nene and how Carmelo can finally break out against the Lakers, but have not paid much attention to the most important key of all and that is how the Denver Nuggets defend the Lakers.

It all starts with Kobe and filters down from there.  No matter who is guarding the Mamba they must make sure he gets nothing easy.  On the other hand, if you pay too much attention to him and double and triple team him, you get Pau Gasol roaming the lane scoring on a barrage of dunks and layups. 

What is the answer?  Denver will trap Kobe off the pick and roll, but when he has the ball look for them to expect Dahntay Jones, J.R. Smith, Chauncey Billups, Carmelo Anthony or whoever is guarding him to play him straight up, keep him out of the lane and force him to shoot jumpers.  

The problem with playing him straight up like that is Kobe has an excellent post game and he can take Jones, J.R. and Chauncey down on the block and drain turnaround jumpers over them all night long.  If the Nuggets do trap Kobe outside of coming off of a ball screen, look for them to do it when he has the ball in the post.

Denver will need Dahntay Jones to do a very good job on Kobe when Jones is on the floor.  If he cannot at least make Kobe work hard for his points, Denver cannot afford to have him in the lineup.  I expect Kobe to draw fouls on Jones quickly and do not be surprised to see Dahntay collecting four or five fouls in just ten or 12 minutes.

Even if Jones plays the best defense of his life it is unfair to expect him to put the clamps on Kobe.  No one can shut Kobe down and few teams have been successful in even containing him.  If Kobe is looking to score, he will get his 30 points and if he is on fire, he will get 40 or more.  One thing to keep an eye on is Kobe has only made four of his past 16 threes.  Denver will have to hope he remains cold from long distance, but we all know it is only a matter of time before he goes off.

If Kobe is wreaking havoc on Denver and they must adjust their defense to commit more resources to covering him the Nuggets must make sure they rotate perfectly.  The Lakers’ shooters will make their open shots.  I do not care that Derek Fisher or Jordan Farmar or Sasha Vujacic have been in shooting slumps lately, they will make their shots in the conference finals.  If Denver is consistently giving up open looks to those guys the Nuggets will be in trouble.  Equally as important as making sound perimeter rotations is ensuring their interior defense remains intact. 

Players like Gasol, Bynum and Odom are all great finishers in the paint.  If Denver shows cracks in the lane the Lakers are a great passing team and they will feed the ball to one of their big men at the rim.  Look no further than Gasol’s 36 point outburst in game one of the Nuggets/Lakers series last season where ten of his 12 made baskets were assisted (he made 14 shots, but only 12 are on record in the play by play at least that I can see).

The other potential issue for Denver defensively is if they have to bring a double team to help Kenyon guard Pau in the post.  If you double Pau, it opens up the floor for Kobe and if Kobe drives or is red hot from the perimeter your defense is going to get embarrassed.

Looking at the Lakers’ defense they really struggle to contain penetration.  Their guards play hard on defense, but Fisher and Vujacic are just not quick enough to contain athletic guards.  Much has been made of how Aaron Brooks shredded the Lakers’ defense in the semifinals although as everyone has pointed out the Nuggets do not have a Brooks type player.  Do not let that fool you into thinking that Denver cannot get into the lane against the Lakers.

Chauncey may not have blazing straight line speed, but he is great with the basketball and when he wants to drive, he gets in the lane.  You can count on J.R. Smith to find his way into the lane more than a few times and Anthony Carter is also capable of getting into the paint off of ball reversals when there is a gap in the defense.

The Nuggets are not only going to be facing the Lakers, Denver will also have to fight history.  To me anything that happened two or five or especially 20 years ago is practically meaningless.  The truth is tonight will be the first time these two teams with this mixture of player face each other with both teams fully healthy so who cares who won a series 24 seasons ago?

That being said, a negative history can weigh a franchise down.  A team and their fans can get conditioned to expect failure.  The Lakers actually have a ten game postseason winning streak against Denver, which is the fourth longest streak of its kind ever behind a 12 game winning streak the 76ers held over the Knicks from 1968-83, a 12 game winning streak the Lakers held against Seattle from 1980-89 and a 12 game streak Boston compiled against Chicago from 1981-87.  In addition to the losing streak Denver is 2-14 since joining the NBA in 1976 in game ones on the road.  Denver also has to deal with their history in Los Angeles where they have not done well over the previous 12 seasons. 

The one thing this Nuggets team has going for them in that area is they are the team that is defying the franchises’ sorry postseason history.  They are the ones who are overcoming those past embarrassments.  I do not think they will be at all intimidated and I expect them to play well throughout the series.

If you listened to the NBA Today podcast from May 19, you heard me say that my official prediction is the Lakers in seven games.  Do not let that disappoint you, I have undersold the Nuggets in each of the first rounds and hopefully I am doing so again.   Denver has an excellent shot at winning this series and as long as they can play competent defense and players like Carmelo, Chauncey and J.R. continue to shoot the ball the way they have been there is no reason why Denver cannot represent the west in the NBA Finals. 

I doubt that the Nuggets are going to get a lackadaisical effort from the Lakers like the Rockets did.  Then again, there is no guarantee that L.A. truly sees the Nuggets as a legitimate competitor and they may certainly overlook Denver as they did Houston.

Enough talk.  It all starts tonight.  If Denver can steal game one that could be the only spark they need to get over the hump against the Lakers and it would be a great step towards winning this series.

Denver Nuggets Game Notes

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Take this with you:  The Lakers are the first team the Nuggets have faced in this postseason that provide multiple difficult matchups.  It seems Denver has taken a large step forward since the regular season ended, but we will not know if that is truly the case until tonight. 

One more thing.  It is not fair that I wrote all of this without mentioning Chris Andersen so I just wanted to say, “Birdzilla!”

Posted on May 19, 2009 at 3:53 pm | filed in Game Preview | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — 53 Comments

Film Room – Bynum Making Pau Better and Carmelo vs the Laker Defense

May 19, 2009
by Jeremy

Two of the most important keys to this series are how much Andrew Bynum can play and how well Carmelo Anthony handles the Lakers’ defensive scheme that has given him fits in the past.

When I talk about Bynum being a key to this series I am not saying he is going to average 18 points and 11 rebounds.  What I mean is his presence makes Pau Gasol a much better player.  With Bynum in the game Gasol obviously plays power forward and that means Kenyon Martin has to cover him.  Without Bynum on the floor Pau will play center and thus Denver can use Nene or Chris Andersen, who at both much closer to his length and weight than Kenyon is, to check him. 

I have put together some video clips to show both how difficult Bynum and Gasol can make things on Denver and how much better the Nuggets matchup with Gasol with Bynum on the bench.  It does not matter if it is due to ineffectiveness or foul trouble, Denver needs Bynum off the court. 

Moving on to Carmelo, everyone knows by now what a difficult time he has had scoring against the Lakers.  Despite the fact he has been guarded by players like Luke Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic he has been taken out of his game.  The reason is the Lakers’ scheme. 

Carmelo has almost exclusively received the ball on the left or right wing.  Whoever is defending Melo will crowd him and wall off the middle and force him to drive to the baseline.  As soon as Carmelo catches the ball they pre-rotate help over to the ball side block.  This defense takes away Melo’s jumper because the on the ball defender is not worried about the drive.  He knows he already has help.  The help defender does not worry about Carmelo’s ability to shoot, he is only concerned about keeping Melo from getting to the rim. 

In the past Carmelo has either forced a contested jumper, dribbled away from the pressure or driven into the teeth of the defense.  Looking at the clips from game 80 we can see he might have figured out how to combat this scheme. 

During this game Carmelo began getting the ball closer to the middle of the floor making the pre-rotated helper less of a factor.  That allowed him to get to the rim and finish.  Also, he used his passing ability to earn his teammates better shots.  The way Carmelo has played so far this postseason leads me to believe he will continue to use his ability to pass as frequently as his ability to score.  When he does so he is a much more dangerous player and the Nuggets are a much better team.

I also recommend looking back at my Film Room segment on how the Nuggets defended the Lakers in their game 59 victory.  

Posted on May 19, 2009 at 12:08 pm | filed in Film Room | Tags: , , , , — Comments Off

Gameday Links

May 19, 2009
by Jeremy

A few links to keep you busy while I work on posting some more good stuff.

Kurt Helin and I face off on the ESPN NBA Today podcast’s battle of the bloggers where we talk about everything from Kenyon Martin vs Mark Cuban, Vince McMahon vs Stan Kroenke and of course, the Denver Nuggets vs the Los Angeles Lakers.

The L.A. Times Lakers Blog has some great video from Lakers’ practice yesterday where Kobe and Phil Jackson talk about facing off with the Nuggets.

On NBA.com Chris Tomasson paints an ugly picture for the Nuggets based on their past history, but Denver is embracing the challenge and doubters such as Shane Battier.

Brian at Empty the Bench looks at what Chauncey has to do in order for Denver to beat the Lakers and it does not all involve making shots or setting up teammates.

The Nugg Doctor has posted his series preview.

By the way, the NBA Draft Lottery is tonight.  I love the drama of the lottery and the draft.  Never before has the lottery snuck up on me as it did this season, but with Denver in the conference finals I think you can understand why.

Posted on May 19, 2009 at 10:52 am | filed in Random Stuff | Tags: , , , — Comments Off

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