The Denver Nuggets, NBA Free Agency and You

July 1, 2009
by Jeremy

With the 2009 NBA meat market known as free agency kicking off tonight at midnight eastern time we need to once again interrupt our individual player evaluations to look at what kind of options are out there for the Nuggets.

Before we get started, familiarize yourself with who is available with this team by team list of free agents.

A quick look at the Nuggets’ finances shows that they are already over the projected luxury tax limit of $70-71 million with the contracts of Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Nene, J.R. Smith, Steven Hunter, Linas Kleiza, Renaldo Balkman, Sonny Weems, Ty Lawson and the $3.0 million they owe Antonio McDyess based on the buyout they agreed to last season (all totaling roughly $73 million). That is ten players and you must carry a minimum of 13 players on your roster.

Now add to that at least $4-5 million to resign Chris Andersen and another million plus for Anthony Carter and/or Dahntay Jones. Suddenly they only have one or two spots with which to upgrade the roster and probably not too much financial wiggle room to play with.

Priority number one has to be to resign Chris Andersen. The question is how much will it cost? If Denver has to come up with $7 or $8 million a year to bring Andersen back it will be very difficult for them to afford to beef up their roster. However, in order for Andersen to get a big offer like that a team who wants him would have to be far enough below the salary cap to offer that kind of cash. So are there any teams who fit that mold?

Atlanta, Detroit, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Portland and Sacramento are the only teams capable of making a significant offer to any free agent above the midlevel exception. I think we can scratch teams like Atlanta, Memphis, Portland and Sacramento off the list because of either a lack of interest from the team in question or from Birdman in playing there.

That leaves Detroit and Oklahoma City. I think Detroit has quite a few players on their list before they get down to Andersen and most likely they will spend their money elsewhere. To me the only team to really worry about is Oklahoma City. They need a shot blocker and rebounder as evidenced by the fact they acquired Tyson Chandler from New Orleans at the trade deadline before their doctor nixed the deal. The one thing Sam Presti has to worry about is the money he is going to have to shell out for Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook in two or three seasons.

Ultimately, I believe the Thunder will not offer Andersen a big contract and that will allow Denver to only have to deal with midlevel offers from other teams. In fact as we saw with J.R. Smith last season teams usually do not bother even offering the mid level exception when the know it will be matched. J.R. did not receive any offer sheets last season and I suspect Birdman should not expect any this summer either. Why waste your time signing a player to an offer sheet when you know the team will match it as soon as the offer sheet showed up on the fax machine.

I expect Denver will be able to resign Andersen with a three year $15 million deal with a starting salary in the $4.0 million range. Maybe Andersen leaves some money on the table, but he would still receive over a 400% raise and keeps him in Denver, where he wants to be. Not all athletes feel a sense of loyalty to a franchise, but Denver not only gave Birdman his first chance to play in the NBA, they also gave him his second chance at real playing time following his suspension.

Birdman deserves a lot of attention, but Andersen is only one of six free agents the Nuggets have to worry about. Do not expect Jason Hart to return. Johan Petro has been allowed to become an unrestricted free agent which does not bode well for his return, although there is a chance Denver could bring him back. As we discussed yesterday look for Anthony Carter to return for one more season in Denver.

The two great unknowns are Linas Kleiza and Dahntay Jones.

Denver is expected to extend the one year, $2,705,724 qualifying offer to Kleiza although as of yet there has been no official word that they have. Kleiza quickly became a favorite of George Karl as he improved quickly in his second and third seasons. I was of the opinion that he was overvalued by the Nuggets, as well as other teams around the league, because his rapid improvement convinced them that his ceiling was much higher than it actually is. In his fourth NBA season he appeared to have plateaued. His three point percentage dropped, his defense is still lacking, he passes only begrudgingly and still rarely goes to his left. The one thing Kleiza does well is rebound. His rebound rate was comparable to Kenyon Martin’s (10.4 to 10.9). Kleiza can run the floor very well, but he does not do it consistently game to game and Denver’s slightly slower pace impacted his ability to provide an impact on that area of the game.

When looking at Kleiza’s roster spot one of the players that the Nuggets have been rumored to be interested in is Grant Hill. Hill played for less than $2.0 million last season and I think he would be a very good fit in Denver. Hill is just as good of a shooter as Kleiza, if not better, but offers a creative playmaking ability that Kleiza will never be able to match.

Apart from Hill there are not many options who would be as cheap and as effective as Kleiza. Trevor Ariza is an intriguing option, but I doubt the Nuggets would be able to pry him away from the Lakers. Some people have mentioned Ron Artest as a potential option for the Nuggets. It would be a bold move, but a risky one too. He displayed his combustability again in the playoffs against the Lakers and he would not come cheap. If Denver wants to bring him in, they would most likely have to offer their full midlevel exception in August or September when all of Artest’s other options have been extinguished. With the health of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming in question, Houston may cling to Artest as their best healthy player or they may let him walk in order to restructure the team after the season.

It is certainly possible that Kleiza will not get any good offers and have to sign the qualifying offer. If that is the case, I would not be overly upset. However, if the Nuggets manage to sign Hill, I imagine they will pull the qualifying offer and Kleiza might be forced to play overseas in order to make any money.

The final question mark for Denver is Dahntay Jones. Jones is the player who is likely to increase his salary the most from 2008-09. Everyone saw him give Chris Paul fits in the playoffs. With his atrocious offensive game his price will not get too high, but if he makes much more than he did last season his salary will quickly exceed his usefulness. Rumors are that Boston is interested and I do not think the Nuggets will go too deep in the pocketbook to bring Jones back.

With J.R. and possibly Sonny Weems playing much of the minutes at shooting guard I am not sure Denver needs to spend much money on a third shooting guard. Plus a player like Hill could spend some time filling in at shooting guard as well. There are some other price efficient players that I think might be good additions to the Nuggets. Flip Murray was very good for Atlanta last season and he played for only $1.5 million. Plus he helped Denver by missing a game winning shot at the Pepsi Center last season so he clearly is pro Nuggets. Fred Jones had his moments with the Clippers at a bargain basement price and I think he is worth a look. My favorite option would be Shannon Brown. He is a restricted free agent and I doubt the Lakers would let him get away, but if they sign all their big salary free agents, it may decrease their motivation to pay him what it takes to bring him back.

If the Nuggets are not able to bring in Hill and/or Brown and they bring back Jones and Kleiza for bottom dollar, it will not be the worst thing in the world. What would be the worst thing in the world is if they combine to play 40 minutes a game again.

Whether Denver boosts their talent level at the swing positions or not, the one thing they must accomplish before next season is to add a quality fourth big man.

There are a couple of nice options available to the Nuggets. First and foremost in my mind is Rasheed Wallace who is an unrestricted free agent. Sheed saw most of his numbers fall off this past season, but I think a good portion of that was due to the fact he did not buy into the Pistons and their chances to succeed. Maybe the most startling thing about Wallace’s game was 89% of his shots were jumpers. However, Denver needs a big man who can shoot and Wallace is still a good post defender. I think pairing him back up with Chauncey on what I think would be a championship caliber team could squeeze another good season or two out of him.

The good news is Sheed might not cost an arm and a leg and Denver may be in a position where they do not necessarily need to be the high bidder to earn a player’s services. When the Nuggets made it to the Western Conference Finals I wrote that it would make Denver a legitimate destination for players who want to win a championship. With teams like San Antonio and Cleveland reportedly interested in Wallace, if the Nuggets want to go after him it will prove a good test of that theory.

Wallace is not the only free agent that would fit well in Denver. Wallace’s former teammate, Antonio McDyess (unrestricted) would be a good option, if he could be convinced not to hate the Nuggets so much. It would be interesting to have a player who Denver is paying twice. They owe him $3 million as part of the buyout they agreed to with him last season and then if they sign him he would have a current contract on the books as well. What is the old science fiction rule, two instances of the same matter cannot occupy the same space? Perhaps if Denver signs McDyess the universe would collapse upon itself.

I have heard some Nuggets fans hot for Paul Millsap (restricted) and with Carlos Boozer deciding not to opt out of his contract today Utah will be in a tough spot should someone give Millsap a big offer. However, he is not coming to Denver. The only way the Nuggets could bring him on board would be via sign and trade and Utah will put a hit on Millsap before they send him to the Nuggets.

David Lee (restricted) is another player who has been linked to the Nuggets and rumor has it they had worked out a deal for him with the Knicks at the trade deadline but Karl did not want to give up Kleiza. Again, Denver would have to pull off a sign and trade, but with the Knicks looking to create as much cap space as possible for next summer they are not going to want to give Lee a big contract. Would a trade exception and a couple of first round picks get Lee to Denver?

Should the Nuggets fail to nab one of the high profile guys there are a couple of cheap options who could provide some assistance. You may laugh when you read this, but if Denver needs an emergency fill in on the cheap I believe Shelden Williams (unrestricted) would be a good option. He cannot shoot, but he is a big boy who can rebound and block shots. Channing Frye (unrestricted) is a big man who seems to play well with consistent minutes. He is a great midrange shooter and can rebound when he is asked to. One final player who may be of interest is Drew Gooden (unrestricted). He has become a very good rebounder even if he is still a bit rough around the edges.

If Denver does not bring in an exciting free agent all is not lost. They still have two big trade exceptions, $9.8 million (expires November 3, 2009) and $3.24 million (expires January 5, 2010), that they can use to basically buy a player or players from another team. If they cannot sign a free agent they want, they would certainly be able to acquire a player to help via trade.

The big question is will Denver spend what it takes to add to the roster? There has been some consternation that because they are already over the luxury tax limit and with the reduction in spending last summer that Stan Kroenke would not allow the front office to spend any additional money to augment the roster. Kroenke has paid the luxury tax before and I do not think he will say no now as long as doing so makes sense.

For anyone wondering how the world financial crisis is affecting Kroenke I think it is safe to assume he can spend as much money as he wants on the Nuggets. He seems to be taking advantage of the economic recession instead of hoarding his cash in mattresses. He spent over $60 million to increase his ownership in Arsenal of the English Premier League just three months ago. Does that sound like he is freaking out over his Walmart stock?

I think you can count on Denver boosting their talent level and spending the money necessary to do it. Sports Illustrated’s Scott Howard-Cooper seems to be convinced that the Nuggets are going to be aggressive in the free agent market. I expect the same thing. I am convinced Denver wants to make their playoff run a launching point for something better instead of a onetime high point.

Denver did a good job of targeting high energy, athletic and cheap free agents to build a team that can run and play solid team defense.  Hopefully the Nuggets will continue to build a roster of players who can play great team defense, can shoot and play to win and not just for themselves.

Other free agents who I like (are either really good or would be cheaper than they are worth), but are either not going to change teams or Denver would have no interest in:

  • Josh Childress (Restricted – Atlanta Hawks/Greece) – Multi talented
  • Andersen Varejao (Unrestricted – Cleveland Cavaliers) – Scrappy big, great team defender
  • Ersan Ilyasova (Restricted – Milwaukee Bucks/Turkey) – good rebounder and shooter
  • Chris Wilcox (Unrestricted – New York Knickerbockers) – Athletic and possibly cheap
  • Steve Novak (Unrestricted – Los Angeles Clippers) – Deadly shooter
  • C.J. Watson (Restricted – Golden State Warriors) – I like the way he plays
  • Lamar Odom (Unrestricted – Los Angeles Lakers) – No duh
  • Matt Barnes (Restricted – Phoenix Suns) – A more athletic version of LK
  • Hedo Turkoglu (Unrestricted – Orlando Magic) – Versatile, big shot maker
  • Ramon Sessions (Restricted – Milwaukee Bucks) – Can score and distribute
Posted on July 1, 2009 at 2:04 am | filed in Analysis | 9 Comments
  • TheseNuggs

    This will be my first comment on any of the denver nuggets articles but I have been a long time denver nugget fan from the portland Oregon area never miss a game and read up on all the news possible. IMO I believe the nuggets are truly one Solid Role Player away from grabbing this coming years NBA title. Resigning Bird Man is a must unless he is demanding some kind of lucrative contract. I had Ty Lawson as a Top 10 draft choice and still think out of all the point guards he is most ready to contribute at an NBA level. By drafting him I think Denver has Solved any Backup Point Guard issues they had. Now for free agent talk there are alot of scenerios we can look into that would be incredible but not so realistic. Id be willing to somehow manage some sort of deal in where we get rid of Kmarts contract or Nenes and some filler pieces to bring in Chris Bosh and you would have a lineup that would be a favorite to win it all every year until billups calls it quits. However this most likely will not happen. I think grabbing a young big who can rebound or spread the floor would be huge. I know people have been pushing for Rasheed or maybe Artest to come in but maybe its just me but I dont know if im willing to invest too much money in either of these two in the latter days of their carreer id rather go cheaper and younger with talent that can bring in about the same production such as a David Lee , Martin Gortat or even a Channing Frye. All three of these people IMO are extremely underrated and are up for the taking. Its all up to Denver Management right now. All and all though if we were to just keep our team from this past year with the aquisition of Ty Lawson I dont think Denver Fans need to worry a whole lot about falling behind in the Western Conference. After all the biggest knock on denver the past years was that they have always had one of if not the most talented teams in the NBA it was just a matter of putting it all together and This Denver team started to show towards the end of this year and the playoffs that they are getting it together.

  • TheseNuggs

    On a side note Paul Millsap or Charlie V. would be on my list as well for the nuggs to pursue.

  • runningdonut

    I’m on board with the Shelden Williams idea. He’d only be needed as a 3rd big and working under Kenyon’s newfound leadership and defensive swagger I can see him becoming more like the player everyone thought he would be.

    Sheed and Artest I think are completely unnecessary.I think we have a special group in place who will get better with time. What the Nugs need is a couple of hungry role players (a la the Dahntay and Birdman signings last year) who can forget about ego and simply play hard to fill a void. For a big signing it’d be nice to get a scoring PF, only because I wouldn’t mind seeing slide into a role like Dahntay played last year. He’ll start but play a limited minutes as to focus on setting the defensive tone and staying healthy a full year. Then he’ll yield to the high powered offensive game of a Villanueva, David Lee, or Millsap type guy. This would allow K-Mart to keep his intensity high, focus on his strength (defense) and hopefully play out a full season with less of a chance for injury.

    A guy you didn’t mention who I think would be great for us is Hakim Warrick, restricted FA out of Memphis

  • TheseNuggs

    Hakim Warrick would be a nice role player off the bench but i see him more as a younger version of Kmart which is not bad at all by anymeans in fact Kenyon Martin is one of my favorite players but theres no denying the fact that Kenyon can get a little jump shot happy at times and that is not what we need. Especialy if Dahntay were to start again for defensive purposes id like to have a focused Kmart off the bench bringing the defense and running the fast break with the second unit alongside Ty Lawson (Dare I say like an old jason kid Kmart tandem). That way we could be starting a power forward like a Frye, Lee, or Villanueva to bring some boards and stretch the defense with some midrange shooting or low post moves.

  • TheseNuggs

    Also The talk right now is Memphis is offering David Lee a 10 million dollar a year contract. Which is too bad cause Im a big David Lee fan and dont see many other teams including the nuggets offering him this much in this economy. However I do think hes worth that much. Congrats to him if these rumors are true, if not then im still holding out for him cause hes my number 1 target for my Nuggs.

  • Othe33

    Channing Frye is soft. I’d love to see Rasheed on this team. I think the Nuggs have reached the point where we either add serious quality veterans or young guys trying to earn some burn.

    I think we’re pretty much set as a unit at this point…but I’m excited to see what Rex comes up with in utilizing his many options. Any real value in return for Kleiza is a huge plus.

    Jeremy, you are crushing it post-season. Kudos.

  • runningdonut

    Let’s go pluck Marc Gasol and Hakim Warrick out of that suddenly crowded Grizz frontcourt.

    Jeremy, how are we getting rid of Hunter? Tons of teams will want cap room for 2010, but who can give us back something useful?

  • Frontrange

    With the exception of Andersen, I expect the Nugs will move slowly in FA.

    Grant Hill seems like a legit possibility at the swing 2-3 position. Can’t see that Warrick would be a good piece since his defense is so weak, and anyone they bring in will cost double.

    Wallace would be great at the under 2-3M, but I gather he will be too expensive to make sense.

    Childress would be a fantastic add to replace Jones, but probably too expensive as well (unless we could do a sign and trade with Klieza). If the Mavs make a splash elsewhere, I would love to see the Nugs nab Brandon Bass.

    The Nugs best chip is that 9.8M trade exemption, and I don’t see them using it unless a Pau Gasol deal rolls around . . .my dream scenario would be using it to acquire Bosh but that ain’t happening since Kapono would have been the dead weight to take off their hands . . .but, suppose Nugs offered to take Okur from Utah to free up cap space to resign Millsap. Would probably need to sweeten the deal, but that would be worth the 9M salarly slot IMO.

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