Roundball Mining Company - Denver Nuggets Blog

Pulling for Plateletes

March 9, 2010
by Jeremy

We found out two pieces of news about Kenyon Martin today. His patella tendon injury does not appear to be a season ending and he has already received an injection of platelet-rich plasma. Both of those tidbits could not be more vague.

While the Nuggets announced that Kenyon “is expected to return” at some point this season, there is no timeline. No week to ten days or two to four weeks. Expected to return makes me a little bit queasy. I have expected a lot of things to happen that did not happen. I expected the girl I took to homecoming to dance with me. I expected to graduate college in four years. I expected Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra to make my summer the best one ever.

I would like to think if something is expected to happen the chances of it occurring are better than 50/50. Then I thought about weather forecasts and if there is only a 30% chance of rain or snow they expect rain or snow. Cold the chances of Kenyon playing again this season really be as low as 30%?

Of course, I am being a little silly. If the team says they expect Kenyon to play again this season, I believe them, but still, the lack of a more specific prognosis is not encouraging.

After a little digging, and by digging I mean I conducted an internet search and clicked on at least three links, the reason why the team cannot give us more specific information on Kenyon’s return is because the platelet-rich plasma (PRP) treatment is a bit of an unknown.

According to Scientific American, which has a really official looking website and might even be a real magazine with subscriptions and everything, is a procedure that has displayed anecdotal success, but is yet to be proven to be more effective than alternative treatments, such as laying on your couch, in legitimate clinical trials.

The procedure involves removing some of your own blood, separating the platelets, thingamabobs from your own blood that your body utilizes to heal itself, and then injecting them into the injured area. The treatment was originally “developed the mid-1990s to aid bone healing after spinal injury and soft tissue recovery following plastic surgery.” More recently the procedure showed signs of speeding the healing of tendons that suffer from microscopic tearing leading to chronic tendinitis especially in locations where there is not a surplus of blood flow.

As mentioned above there have not been any official studies involving humans to prove or disprove the effectiveness of the treatment. Dr. Dennis A. Cardone from the Hospital for Joint Diseases at New York University claims that sometimes patients believe it worked and sometimes it was completely ineffective. Overall he cites a success rate of “maybe around 60 percent.”

If Dr. Cardone is right, perhaps we are looking at a 60 percent chance of Kenyon returning to the floor again this season and thus a 60 percent chance Denver will be a team to reckon with in the playoffs.

Honestly, Denver can handle life without Kenyon for a few games here and there. If they are forced to play without him for a prolonged period of time I think you can kiss any shot at the second or third seed goodbye and perhaps even home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Kenyon is certainly a limited player, but he is the Nuggets’ best rebounder and a very versatile defender. In addition to his defensive abilities, he is a very good passer and was always a threat to score 18 or 20 points. As long as Kenyon can return healthy for the playoffs the Nuggets will still have as good of a chance as anyone to unseat the Lakers although the road will be much more difficult.

The Nuggets have been linked with players such as Mikki Moore and now we can add Jake Voskuhl and Brian Cook. How much do you want to count on any of them at this point in the season? If our worst fears end up a reality and Kenyon is unable to play again this season I am afraid the Nuggets season will be irreparably damaged as well.

Kenyon’s platelets have gotten him through two microfracture surgeries. Hopefully they can come through one more time.

Thrashing the Thunder, Melo vs Durant, Adding Bigs and Some Links

March 4, 2010
by Jeremy

Box Score | Highlights

What can we take from the Denver Nuggets 119-90 dismantling of the Oklahoma City Thunder? The Nuggets were certainly due for a breakout game and the Thunder apparently forgot to drink their energy drinks this morning. The Nuggets certainly rediscovered their ability to pass, score in the paint and run the floor. However, Oklahoma City did not put up much of a battle.

In an attempt to document the expected conflagration between Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant Royce Young from Daily Thunder and I were asked to carry on an email conversation for the Daily Dime. Unfortunately, for Royce, the game was a disappointment, but we still managed to compare and contrast Melo and KD. (In case you missed it David Thorpe provided his own in depth breakdown of how Melo and Durant match up earlier today.)

After the duel between the two superstars failed to materialize Nuggets fans were still treated to some good news. Chris Andersen looked healthy again. Just two days after moving around the floor in Phoenix like an octogenarian he was spry and bouncy. All the evidence I needed to see came when Andersen stepped away from his man to challenge Russell Westbrook as he approached the rim from the right baseline. When Birdman met Westbrook in the air the point guard dished off to Birdman’s man Nick Collison. Andersen landed, recovered and leapt in time to block Collison’s point blank shot before it started on its way down. It was an impressive play and hopefully a sign that Bird’s chronic patella tendinitis will not be a problem in the near future.

As far as all the regular things we fret over from game to game such as pick and roll defense, rotations and offensive tactics, with the lack of competition I do not think there is anything to draw any hard and fast conclusions.

I guess there is one other thing we can say and that is Kenyon stop shooting from outside the paint. Please, you are killing me. He bricked a three pointer so badly off the backboard that security had to put the ball out of its misery to ease its suffering.

With little to reflect on as far as game action instead of calling it a night we will turn our attention to a question from drewjay. Should Denver be preparing to welcome Mark Blount to the team?

With the Nuggets searching for big man depth the bought out player field never quite materialized. As much fun as it was to daydream about Zydrunas Ilgauskas coming to Denver to hit shots and be really tall, there was never any real chance of that happening. He has played his entire career in Cleveland. They kept him around early in his career when it appeared he would never be able to run from one end of the floor to the other without breaking his foot and this is the best Cavs team, perhaps ever. There was never any chance he would end up anywhere else.

I had hopes of Drew Gooden becoming available, but after conflicting reports as to whether or not the Clippers were going to buy him out we found out the Clippers wanted him to stay. It makes sense for the other LA team to try to win as many games as possible to appear as a better destination for free agents. Had Gooden not been shipped from the Wizards to LA he likely would have been bought out, but alas it was not meant to be.

So who is left? Umm…how about Mark Blount and Mikki Moore? Any takers?

Considering the way the Nuggets are spending money, or should I say not spending money, the only way they will bring in another player is if that player is significantly better than one, or both of the Nuggets spare bigs, namely Malik Allen and Johan Petro. It is clear that Karl does not trust either one. They only get significant playing time when someone in front of them is injured or during blowouts.

I cannot see Blount enticing the Nuggets at all and I cannot imagine a player who has been played 15 minutes over the past 13 months coming onboard and earning any more trust than Allen has. However, with Moore there is certainly smoke. As Chris Tomasson has reported Moore is recovering from surgery to remove a bone spur on his right heel and could be ready to play be mid March.

Moore is no spring chicken at the age of 34, but he has only played in 557 games and as long as he is healthy could provide an upgrade over Malik Allen. If Moore does come to Denver it will certainly not be to play 20 minutes a night, but as a fourth big who can run the floor, bring energy off the bench and most importantly give Renaldo Balkman a run for his money in the bad hair competition he is probably worth the gamble.

Heck according to the video below Moore is a deadly shooter, great finisher, has an excellent post game and is an all around dominate force (you have to watch it simply to see where on the backboard the ball hits the backboard as he banks a turnaround jumper at the 50 second mark).

If the Nuggets pass and decide not to sign anyone I am not going to lose a second of sleep. I would much prefer not signing anyone to signing Blount. However, signing Moore would be a cheap move with little downside.

Sticking with news from Tomasson he has reported that Carmelo received an IV this morning and that he was slightly dehydrated which could help explain some of his lackadaisical play. If Melo plays like he did tonight after getting some fluids, I say hook him up to an IV every morning.

John Hollinger explains why Chauncey Billups’ 43.9% shooting percentage is historically misleading.

One more link to pass along although it is a little outdated. Sebastian over at NBA Playbook breaks down a lob play the Nuggets ran at Golden State to help ice the game last Thursday.

Additional Game 61 Nugget

Arron Afflalo hurt his thumb and reported had it x-rayed following the game, but he claims via twitter that he is fine and will play Friday.

The Return of Game Stats

I finally updated my spreadsheet and the advanced stats on the right sidebar after only three quarters of the season have passed.

Pace Factor: 98.6

Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 – OKC produced a Nuggets opponent season low FG%, 32.5%, and EFG%, 37.3%.

Offensive Efficiency: 120.6 – 30 assists on 44 makes

Quiet Trade Deadline for the Denver Nuggets?

February 18, 2010
by Jeremy

With the trade deadline just over 12 hours away, it seems to be highly unlikely that the Denver Nuggets make a move. The only players they have been rumored to be interested in are Tyrus Thomas and Ben Wallace. I thought Wallace was a logical option for Denver as he has a small expiring contract and might be interested in playing for a team that doesn’t suck. The problem with Wallace is he is not an ideal defender for the Lakers’ long front line, but he could certainly help the Nuggets hang on to the second seed.

I never understood the Tyrus Thomas rumors although I have repeatedly read the Nuggets have inquired about him. The only way Denver could send the Bulls enough expiring contracts to match Thomas’ $4,743,598 contract is if Johan Petro and Anthony Carter approve of the trade. In addition to that roadblock Denver would have to part with not only Petro, but Malik Allen too leaving them with only four bigs and Thomas is not much of a banger. If the Bulls were interested in taking Renaldo Balkman back instead of an expiring contract, it would make such a trade more palatable for Denver, but all this is under the assumption that the Bulls would be willing to part with a player they drafted fourth just three years ago for expiring contracts and Balkman. As we have pointed out before, Denver has very little else to offer with the Grizzlies already owning Denver’s 2010 first rounder and the only other tradable asset being the rights to Linas Kleiza.

The only other way the Nuggets could acquire Thomas from the Bulls would be part of a larger deal where they take on an undesirable contract from Chicago, but the Nuggets are not likely to be in the business of adding long term salary with the contracts they already have on the books for next season and furthermore, agreeing to accept more than Thomas would require the Nuggets parting with one of their key rotation players. It just is not worth it.

Denver does have one ace up their sleeve, a $3.696 million trade exception, one of the largest current trade exceptions in the league, thanks to the trade that sent Steven Hunter to Memphis. It could prove useful in acquiring Ben Wallace, but do not look for Denver to offer anyone salary relief as that does not jive with their budget conscious philosophy. Still, if the right offer comes along, it is a nice arrow to have in the quiver.

The one developing situation to keep an eye on is whether or not Drew Gooden will be bought out by the Los Angeles Clippers. There are currently conflicting Twitter reports regarding Gooden’s future with the Clips. David Aldridge is saying he is staying in L.A. while Adrian Wojnarowski is saying he is on his way to a buy out. I am not sure if the Nuggets would have any interest in Gooden if he were a free agent, but I am certain Denver will be a destination of choice for any big men who are bought out following the trade deadline.

Some have wondered if the announcement from yesterday regarding Coach Karl would make the Nuggets more or less likely to make a move. I firmly believe it plays no role in what the Nuggets do tomorrow and beyond. If they have a chance to make a move or signing to improve the roster without compromising their budget, they will pull the trigger.

I find it unlikely that trigger is pulled tomorrow, but keep an eye on the TrueHoop Trade Reports page for all the latest news.

Additional Thoughts on the George Karl Extension

February 16, 2010
by Jeremy

I promised some additional thoughts on the George Karl contract extension. There are two issues with the one year, $4.5 million extension Karl and the Denver Nuggets agreed to last week. First, should George Karl coach the Denver Nuggets next season and secondly, is $4.5 million too much or too little?

With the progress the Denver Nuggets have made under George Karl, earning their first appearance in the Western Conference Finals in 24 seasons and they, currently legitimate contenders and in second place in a competitive Western Conference, I certainly believe he deserves to coach here until it is clear that he is not physically able to do the job, the team is obviously backsliding or Phil Jackson or Greg Popovich call Mark Warkentien and ask for a job.

I was never of the opinion that Karl should have been sent packing primarily when that movement was at its peak two seasons ago, because there was no one that made sense as a replacement. That may not sound like a ringing endorsement, but now in 2009-10 I think it is clear that sticking with him was the right choice.

My biggest issue with him was he seemed to have lost his fire and was very passive. I cannot blame him either as dealing with cancer, both his and Coby’s, can put what is important into perspective. (I want to point out right now that the following is speculative although Karl touches on the increased focus he wanted to give to his family in interviews here - a must read piece from 5280 - and here.) Karl talked openly about some of his regrets as a father and he did his best to correct some issues in that area. It makes sense that basketball would have seemed somewhat trivial until he was able to get those other priorities in place. I believe now that Karl has dealt with his personal life, he is able to once again delve into basketball with a passion while knowing how to keep it from taking over his life.

As far as the money, Karl is still behind coaches like Phil Jackson, Popovich, Larry Brown, Doc Rivers, Mike Brown, Mike D’Antoni, Jerry Sloan, Don Nelson and most likely Stan Van Gundy who just agreed to an extension to a contract that paid him $4.0 million a season. Karl is on the top ten wins list of all time, and is coaching a team that is potentially on the verge of their greatest season of all time. Even for a team that is trying to keep costs down, the Nuggets are fair when it comes to compensation and $4.5 million is fair for a coach with Karl’s credentials. Not to mention, Karl is currently slightly underpaid at $3.0 million (even though I hate to consider anyone who makes $3 million a year underpaid).

If you were looking for something scathing, sorry to let you down, but this is another level headed move by the Nuggets that will only help to stabilize the franchise as they pursue their first ever NBA Finals appearance.

The Denver Nuggets Continue to Impress

February 9, 2010
by Jeremy

The Denver Nuggets split a back to back in Los Angeles and Utah over the weekend and despite the loss in Utah, I continue to be impressed with this team and the way they are playing.

Denver started the weekend off in style defeating the Lakers 126-113 (Box Score, Forum Blue & Gold) . Obviously the Nuggets played great on offense lead by Chauncey Billups’ career high 39, 37 of which came in the first three quarters thanks to nine fancy threes. Chauncey was slowed in the fourth quarter after rolling his ankle, but J.R. Smith picked up where BIllups left off dropping in 16 fourth quarter points to close out the Lakers.

It is one thing to be hot on offense. Any team can catch fire for a night and bury their opponent. To me the real story was the way Denver defended the Lakers in the second half. The two Lakers who have had their way with Denver in the past are Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. Those two combined to score 33 of the Lakers’ 64 first half points. However, in the second half Denver held L.A. to 49 points and Kobe and Pau only netted 17 between the two of them.

Kobe was red hot in the first quarter producing an impressive 20 points. Kobe is an incredibly competitive individual, which is news to no one. After the credit Arron Afflalo received for his performance against Kobe in the first meeting this season, you knew the Black Mamba would be out to prove Afflalo could not handle him. Despite the big scoring quarter, I thought Afflalo did about as good a job as he did previously. Kobe was just hitting difficult shots. Even with Afflalo playing solid D, the Nuggets chose to double Kobe for much of the second half to prevent him from having one of those nights.

With the double teaming of Kobe, it would stand to reason that Pau would get loose inside and dominate with his touch and passing ability. Not so. The Nuggets also had a new wrinkle for Pau. When Pau caught the ball with his back to the rim, the Nuggets waited for him to put the ball on the floor and then sent a double team at him as well. Gasol tends to take his time in the post and once he starts dribbling, you can expect him to dribble more than once or twice. Knowing that, Denver was able to wait for him to dribble before they doubled him. This prevented him for working to get exactly the shot he wanted and either rush the shot or pass out of the double.

It was a significant change for Denver who generally dislikes doubling anyone, but it was an effective strategy and a big reason why they were able to win the game. With Kobe and Gasol held in check, none of the Lakers supporting cast failed to rise to the occasion. Ron Artest was 3-9 and scored 12 points. Andrew Bynum shot 5-7, but only scored two second half points. Derek Fisher had four points on seven shots. Sasha Vujacic missed all five of his threes and only totaled four points on six shots.

The Los Angeles bench did manage to score 37 points, which is a good total. The kicker is it took them 36 shots to get there. Conversely the Denver bench (J.R. Smith, Ty Lawson and Chris Andersen) racked up 47 points, but did so on a mere 27 shots. Birdman actually outrebounded the entire Laker bench by himself 15-13.

If there is bad news, it has to be that despite Birdman’s aforementioned 15 boards and stout 12 rebound effort from Kenyon Martin L.A. pulled down 18 offensive boards and outrebounded Denver by 7.

The other aspect of the game that I found interesting was Nene was aggressive offensively against Bynum, which has not always been the case. In the past Nene has shied away from attacking bigger defenders such as Bynum, but he went right at him on a few occasions and had success. Now he just needs to pull down a few more rebounds to help reduce the Lakers’ offensive rebounding advantage.

The very next night Denver found themselves in Utah once again playing without Carmelo Anthony, but this time sans Chauncey Billups as well. Denver had already defeated Utah three times this season, the Jazz had been red hot and were sure to be highly motivated to dump the shorthanded Nuggets.

I do not have time to go into detail on that game, (Box Score, Highlights, Salt City Hoops, SLC Dunk) but I will say that I was thrilled with the effort and heart the Nuggets displayed. Playing without Melo and Chauncey and on the second night of a back to back (one of the late game in the Pacific time zone flying east that Greg Popovich thinks are unfair) and with Utah sitting at home for two days waiting for Denver to roll into town, the odds were not in the Nuggets’ favor.

Instead of folding after getting down 18 in the third quarter the Nuggets fought back and were within six points of the streaking Jazz with less than three minutes left.

Denver certainly lacked effort in some games earlier in the season, but they seem to have focused in on how important every game truly is. That bodes very well for the future even as Denver heads into possibly the toughest stretch of their regular season schedule.

In closing, I will say that most people, especially most guys young or old, fancy themselves as being tough. One thing I learned as a father is to never assume you could handle the pain someone else is experiencing. That point was struck home to me when my son was about 12 years old and foolishly decided sun tan lotion was unnecessary for someone who was in the sun as much as he was and returned from a trip to the lake with friends with skin that could easily be classified as well done. When it was time for bed, he was crying because his skin hurt so badly. My first reaction was to tell him to quit being such a baby until I stopped to put myself in his place. Maybe it was his own fault and maybe I would not be crying as he was had I scalded my exposed skin as badly as he did, but would I be able to lay down and fall asleep without uttering a single complaint? I had to figure as tough as I believed myself to be, a sunburn like that was certainly painful and while it was my job to make sure my son was not a sissy, it was not my job to dismiss his pain and label him a pansy.

I am sure you are wondering why I am telling you such a boring story. My point is I am really shocked that Carmelo Anthony has not played since spraining his ankle two weeks before the Utah game. Carmelo himself said the ankle was not as badly sprained as those he has suffered in the past. After seeing video of him working out before the game against the Lakers and knowing he has been practicing I started questioning both his toughness and how badly he wants to play. I do not take making accusations like that lightly, which is why I shared the sunburn story. Perhaps Carmleo’s ankle is much worse than any of us know, or have been led to believe. Perhaps working out is causing more pain than you or I could endure. We simply do not know. While an absence of this length is suspicious, it is not enough to lead me to proclaim Melo is a sissy or is more interested in making sure he can drop 30 points a night when he returns.

I have not seen evidence of Melo skipping out on playing when he was banged up in the past. In fact, if you recall he finished the game against the Indiana Pacers in which he broke his hand last season.

Do I want Carmelo to play? Absolutely. Is the fact he is missing games causing more harm than good? I think that question is up for debate. Maybe the Nuggets go 6-2 or 7-1 instead of 5-3 over the eight games he has missed. However, players like Kenyon Martin and Arron Afflalo have been forced to raise their game and now the team knows that those two are capable of answering the bell should the need arise. That is a good thing and had Melo only missed a game or two Kenyon might not have been such a force against San Antonio and Afflalo probably does not get the opportunity to hit the game winning shot against Sacramento.

The wins in Houston, San Antonio and Los Angeles without Carmelo were big wins for this team and I believe have helped build tremendous momentum for this team and helped them truly believe in what they can accomplish together.

What to do with J.R.?

January 25, 2010
by Jeremy

As I mentioned in my recap of the Nuggets win over the Hornets, I was very displeased with the way the Nuggets played on offense. They were far too perimeter oriented and did not do enough to work to earn good shots. As you can imagine, J.R. Smith and too perimeter oriented go hand in hand.

Smith is one of the players who has the athleticism and skills to make the Hornets pay for their hard doubling of Carmelo Anthony. Sadly, he was all too ready to play into the Hornets hands by launching threes instead of taking advantage of the quickness advantage Smith had over any Hornet who tried to guard him. J.R. was on the court for 12 minutes, but still managed to launch five threes.

J.R. was not the first guard off the bench in the second half as Karl sent in Ty Lawson to play with Chuancey Billups. When Smith entered the game to start the fourth quarter, the spot where Lawson usually relieves Billups, he turned the ball over and attempted three three pointers, one of which he did convert. Karl rightly yanked him and reinserted Chauncey and J.R. started to the bench and then changed direction and headed to the locker room.

I can understand Smith’s frustration. He has been mired in perhaps the worst shooting slump of his career. So far in the month of January he is shooting only 25.4% on threes. If he does not improve his conversion rate January 2010 will be the worst of any single month since he became a Nugget in 2006. In fact, J.R. is posting his poorest statistical season as a Nugget. His shooting percentages are down across the board, his turnover rate is the highest of his career and his assist rate is down. Even with all of his struggles, his usage rate is a career high. All in all his PER of 12.76 is lower than every season he has played save his rookie campaign as a Hornet.

We all know Smith is too good of a player to put forth an entire season like this. At some point he will absolutely explode. The problem is, he knows that when his shot starts falling, it might not stop for a while and he is eager for that day to come. As a result he is chucking threes every chance he gets in anticipation of the incendiary streak that is undoubtedly around the corner. When he struggles against a former team, in a game that is close and his team could really use a good night from him, and on top of it sees his role limited and minutes yanked I can understand why he would be upset. The frustration that is piling up will undoubtedly boil over and that is what appeared to happen when J.R. left the bench and went to the locker room.

The question is how do you reach out to a player who is a key component to your team’s ability to be a contender, is probably very down on himself and has displayed a sensitivity to criticism? At this point, the Nuggets are in high level discussions where they are deciding whether or not to suspend J.R.

It is not an easy decision, but as for me, I would suspend him. The Nuggets have proven that they have the courage to sit a player down when they benched Carmelo last season for refusing to leave a game in Indiana. If you recall, Carmelo was mired in a bad shooting slump of his own and had finally hit a couple of big shots when his time to rest came around. Understandably, Melo wanted to ride the hot streak he though he had found. However, he did so at the expense of his teammates, Kenyon Martin had to sit down because Melo did not want to, and he displayed that he was in charge and not the coach.

J.R. did not cost a teammate playing time, nor did he refuse to follow direction from the coach. What he did do is put himself ahead of the team by leaving his teammates, even if just for a few minutes as he was back on the bench well before the end of the fourth quarter, and that cannot be tolerated. J.R. must learn that the coaches, front office and his teammates care about him and they need him. No matter how rough things are going, no one or nothing is bigger than the team. If the Nuggets are better off with J.R. playing 12 minutes, then J.R. has to be OK with that.

I have always been a fan of J.R. ever since I saw him play in summer league as a rookie. He is immensely talented and I honestly believe he has all-star level talent. His mental state has come a long way since he first arrived in Denver as has his game. Even so, he still has lessons that he has not learned and his behavior when being removed from the game on Saturday proves it.

With Carmelo Anthony already ruled out of Monday night’s contest with the Charlotte Bobcats, it will be tempting to let J.R. skirt by and play. I hope the Nuggets take the road less traveled and make the tough decision to demonstrate no player is bigger than the team.

Last season when Carmelo was suspended the Nuggets went out and lost a difficult game to the Detroit Pistons with him on the sideline, but Melo served his sentence and then bounced back and played his best month of the season. The Nuggets went on to post a 15-6 record to close out the regular season and as we all remember finished second in the conference.

I am not saying if Denver suspends J.R. he will bust out of his slump or it guarantees great things will happen for the Nuggets upon his return, just that making the right decision, especially when it is the most difficult, can help forge perseverance and strength.

Suspensions do not have to be negative experiences, and J.R. is no stranger to having to sit out, but what comes of a suspension is on the player. Smith needs to be told that he was wrong, there is a consequence for his behavior and that he can use it to become a better player, teammate and person.

I Hate Myself for Writing this Post

January 8, 2010
by Jeremy

I have never promoted this before for the Denver Nuggets at any point during a season where they have a quality team capable of going places, but as much as I want to promote the band together and produce a super human effort I think tonight is a situation where Denver should play to win…on Saturday.

According to Chris Tomasson, Carmelo Anthony is out, Chris Andersen is out and Ty Lawson is doubtful. Benjamin Hochman is reporting Nene is a game time decision and both are saying Chauncey Billups will try to come back for the second time from his groin injury tonight.

Oh, by the way, Denver is playing the East leading Cleveland Cavaliers who have won eight of nine and 13 of their previous 15 games. The Cavs have crushed the Nuggets the previous two meetings, especially last year in Denver and I do not see that changing with the current state of health at the Pepsi Center.

The Nuggets can kill themselves, play on bad ankles and work their tails off to hopefully stay close to the Cavs or they can let the bench have their night, give everyone another day to heal up, including Chauncey, and give it their best shot in Sacramento on Saturday.

It pains me to say it, but I say give up tonight to win tomorrow. Of course, there is no guarantee that Denver will pull out a victory in Sacramento by resting all their injured players against Cleveland, but there is a good chance by sending Nene and Chauncey out there and giving big minutes to Kenyon could greatly reduce your chances of winning on Saturday.

Anthony Carter and J.R. Smith can handle the point. Arron Afflalo, Joey Graham and Renaldo Balkman can deal with the swing positions, Kenyon martin can play a few minutes at power forward with Balkman and Malik Allen filling in the rest and Petro and Allen can take care of the minutes at center.

It will be horrible to watch and ESPN will undoubtedly be bummed out, but once, just this one time, I think it is the right thing to do.

Lots and Lots of Problems

January 2, 2010
by Jeremy

You have no idea how badly I want to sit in on a film session with the Denver Nuggets. I know in this day and age players are given individual DVDs of things the coaches want them to review and I do not even know if the entire team gets together in a room and just sits and watches a quarter or half together. If they still do I want to be there.

Part of me would like to ask, “Why?” Why were you standing there? Notice how you are neither helping a teammate nor are you guarding anyone? Why did you defend the pick and roll like that? Do you see how by standing back here you compromised the entire defense? Why did you not box out? Why did no one find the ball in transition? Why did you not cut to the basket on that play?

Alas, asking those kinds of accusatory questions might not come across as constructive criticism, but watching the way the Nuggets have floundered through the previous few games I have to wonder what goes on behind closed doors. Is there any accountability? There certainly is none on the court.

The reality is Denver played very solid defense last season. They could be a dominant defensive team when they were focused and playing together as evidenced during their playoff run. I expected to see an even better defensive effort from Denver this season due to the fact that they had another year together to build their defensive cohesion and the added motivation that should have been created after reaching the doorstep of the NBA finals last season.

Sadly, the opposite is true. The Nuggets’ defense has been very porous, especially during the current losing streak. Denver has fallen to 17th in the league in defensive efficiency. They have not been that low since the 2001-02 season when they were 26th.

The lack of defense is a problem from the top down. Either the schemes are flawed or the players are not executing them correctly. Sometimes it looks like both of those problems are present at the same time which makes it especially painful to watch. Everything starts with their inability to slow the pick and roll and that filters down to their incapacity to stop penetration or help and recover.

Offensively, Denver has had issues as well. During Chauncey’s absence J.R. Smith has not been playing up to par. He has the ability to get his teammates easy buckets. In both the pick and roll and off of penetration he is an above average passer for a shooting guard. Unfortunately, J.R. has been looking for his own shot almost exclusively. In the six games since Chauncey was hurt J.R. has had either on or no assists in four of them. In fact, his assist rate is tied for the second lowest in his career (11.1).

Carmelo has had some very good offensive games against Memphis, Atlanta and Portland. He was decidedly less effective against New Orleans and Sacramento. The Hornets doubled Melo very aggressively and instead of taking advantage of the gaps in the defense Melo forced a bevy of poor shots. Melo does not deserve all the blame though. His teammates did not give him many options as they spent a great deal of time standing and watching as opposed to cutting to the basket.

Against Sacramento, Carmelo did score 34 points. It just took him 35 shots to do it. He was banged up badly enough he actually shot a free throw left handed towards the end of the third quarter. You would think if he had a difficult time shooting a free throw he would have done his best to avoid shots of that length. That was not the case. For some reason he jacked up nine jumpers after the left handed free throw. If he was injured badly enough he could not get a free throw over the front of the rim, why did he take so many long jumpers after that? On the other hand, perhaps he could not get a better shot off than long jumpers. If that was the case, he should have relied on his teammates to set him up instead of trying to create his own shot.

I am not saying the Nuggets should have won every game without Billups. To be fair missing Chauncey is a big deal. Lawson has played well, probably better than we should expect a rookie point guard to play after being forced into the starting lineup and Anthony Carter has not been horrible, in fact he made a couple of very good plays down the stretch in Sacramento. However, the difference between Chauncey Billups (31.8 minutes a game with a PER of 20.03) and Ty Lawson (20.4 minutes per game with a PER of 16.01) and Ty Lawson (26 minute a game without Chauncey) and Anthony Carter (23.2 minutes a game without Chauncey with a PER of 9.13) is significant.

I can understand losing at New Orleans, Memphis, Portland OR Sacramento. I cannot accept losing at New Orleans, Memphis, Portland AND Sacramento. At some point the Nuggets need to decide enough is enough, put forth a full 48 minute effort at both ends of the floor and win.

Tonight in Utah they will be without Chauncey and possibly Carmelo as well. Honestly, I have no confidence in them to win tonight. The good news is Utah might be without Deron Williams. Perhaps one herculean team effort would indeed earn them a much needed road victory. Denver has just shown no ability whatsoever to come together and put forth that effort.

Denver Nuggets Fall to the Detroit Pistons

December 11, 2009
by Jeremy

You can find thoughts on tonight’s 101-99 loss to the Pistons in the Daily Dime from both Dan Feldman of Piston Powered and myself. Judging from the quote from Chancey in box five under “Quote of the Night” he agrees with the premise of my comments.

Early Impressions of the Denver Nuggets

December 3, 2009
by Jeremy

The Denver Nuggets are approaching the quarter pole in the new season. There is only one team in the west with fewer losses now that Phoenix has lost two in a row. Denver just finished an incredibly easy five game stretch with a 4-1 record. It is difficult to say that only losing one out of five games is a disappointment, but the manner in which the Nuggets folded at home against a bad Timberwolf team was difficult to swallow.

So what conclusions can we draw if any at this point in the season?

The Nuggets have had a very easy schedule

When the schedule was first released I remember thinking how difficult the Nuggets first few games appeared because of all the back to back sets and knowing they would be without J.R. Smith for seven games. The fact is, Denver has had a very easy schedule so far. The only elite team they have faced is the Lakers and it was at home. Plus they have looked bad on the road against quality opponents like the Hawks and Heat.

The win against the Lakers was the signature win of the season, but the second best win, game two in Portland, does not look quite so impressive anymore. The Blazers lost seven home games all last season, but have already dropped four this year in only 11 chances.

Looking at the schedule Denver has played compared to the other top teams in the west, it is clear Denver has had an easy road so far. Even looking through December Denver only has two daunting road games, at San Antonio on Saturday and then at Portland on Christmas and we have documented the Blazers’ struggles already. Going further, Denver only has one more clearly worrisome road game, at Utah, until January 25. The 13-5 start is nice, but if the Nuggets are not safely atop the division on January 25, they will struggle to have home court advantage in the playoffs. One key to earning a high seed is to avoid bad losses and the Nuggets already have two of those.

Even though the schedule gets more difficult, if the Nuggets truly are the second best team in the west, they should still win a good number of games over the final three months.

Carmelo is living up to expectations on offense

Any way you slice it Carmelo Anthony is having a great offensive season. He is the leading scorer in the league by 1.5 points over LeBron James thanks to his 30.7 average. The good news is his increased scoring is not simply due to playing more minutes or taking more shots. Melo’s success this season is proving that his horrible field goal percentage last season was due to the nagging injuries he dealt with for much of season.

Melo is converting on a career high 49.5% of his attempts, he is also making a career high 86.8% of his free throws on a career high 10.1 attempts per game. Carmelo has seen a slight drop in his three point percentage which is currently at 34.0%, but it sure seems like he is hitting a much higher percentage than that. I expect every catch and shoot three he takes to go in.

Not only is Melo healthy, but he is working for better shots. According to HoopData.com there are two big changes in Melo’s shooting from last season. He is attempting nearly two more shots a game at the rim and he is finishing a high percentage of them with his percentage on those shots back up to the mid 60’s after seeing it drop to an uncharacteristically low 57% last year. The fact that Carmelo is getting to the line three more times per game than last season also shows his determination to get to the rim more frequently than last season.

However, scoring is only one part of the game. Melo seems to be passing more frequently and setting his teammates up with better shots than in the past. Melo’s 2.2 assists a game at the rim are behind only Chauncey’s average of 2.9 on the team. Oddly enough, Carmelo’s assist rate of 11.1 is the lowest he has had in four seasons. I think we will see that number climb as the season goes along though. Not only is his assist ration down, but so is his turnover rate. Right now Melo is posting a career best 8.8 turnover rate and that has helped him be more efficient.

If I have any concerns about Melo it is his rebounding and defense. After making a concerted effort to be a better rebounder in 2007-08 and posting a career high 7.4 caroms a game Melo has seen his rebounding average drop to 6.0. Some of that can be attributed to the relatively slower pace the Nuggets now play at, but his rebound rate has dropped to 9.6 after being over 11 the previous two seasons.

Defensively Carmelo seemed determined to raise his level of play and early in the season he was getting low and looking like a player who wanted to get dirty on that end of the floor. That enthusiasm was short lived and Melo has slipped back into his more lackadaisical attitude when the other team has the ball. It was very frustrating to see Melo give up easy baskets to players like Ryan Gomes and Damien Wilkins late in the fourth quarter against Minnesota two games ago.

Nevertheless, he is still better than he was a couple of years ago, but he has still not taken that next step as a defender that would put him in the MVP conversation. Then again, if Marcus Camby can win the Defensive Player of the Year award I guess anything is possible (no I will probably never let that go).

Even with the slightly disappointing effort on defense, Melo is still in position to have his finest performance to date.

The most deserving players are playing

Entering the season I was very concerned that players that George Karl liked in training camp would see more time on the floor than better players on the roster. More specifically that Anthony Carter’s presence would ensure that Ty Lawson would be glued to a padded folding chair on the bench. After getting six starts while J.R. Smith was suspended Carter has not been a threat to Lawson’s playing time. I think we all expected a lot from Lawson, but he has blown those expectations out of the water. All I can say is thank God that Lawson and his 17.60 PER is playing instead of Carter who sports a PER of 7.23.

I was also concerned about Joey Graham stealing time from Arron Afflalo which also proved to be unfounded. Afflalo also has also exceeded expectations on both ends of the floor. He is much more effective on offense and has shown a newfound ability to get to the rim. Afflalo is shooting a surprising 49.2% from the floor and is proving his 40.2% from behind the arc last season was not a fluke.

J.R. Smith no longer has the worst shot selection on the team

Chauncey’s play in the preseason was worrisome to me. He was turning the ball over and missing shots. Coming on the heels of his poor showing against the Lakers in the conference finals, it appeared age may have been catching up with Chauncey. Billups had a couple of nice shooting games to start the season and his turnovers have remained at the same level as they have been throughout his career. However, Chauncey has been very streaky from behind the arc and at this point he is attempting a career high 44.5% of his shots from downtown.

I have lamented Chauncey’s desire to launch threes at inopportune times in the past, but he reached a new level of poor decision making during the embarrassing loss to Minnesota. In the second half when Denver was struggling to figure out that they had a better chance of scoring by getting as close to the rim as possible Billups fired up five threes and two more long two point jumpers. What is worse, is he only made one of those seven long jumpers and it was obvious to everyone but him that it was not his night.

We all poke fun at J.R.’s shot selection and it can be horrible. Earlier in the season I made a joke that he was out of the game due to a sprained shot selection. J.R. may take some incredibly tough shots, but he is making a much higher percentage overall than Chauncey right now and for a player who is supposed to be the coach on the floor, Billups tends to add to the problem instead of demanding a new solution when the Nuggets get jumper happy.

I realize that Chauncey will find his shot and his three point percentage will climb back up towards 40%. I just would like to see him worry more about getting good shots than being Mr. Big Shot.

Nene is playing out of his gourd

If you read this blog on a regular basis you will know I think John Hollinger is the member of the national media who is most attuned to the Nuggets. I had to respectfully disagree with him before the season when he cited Nene as a player who was likely to see a dip in performance this season. As solid as Nene was last year, I expected to see him improve his game seeing as how he did not have to worry about thinks like the effects of chemo over the summer.

So far Nene has been even better this year than last. In my opining Nene has been the most consistent Nugget this season at both ends of the floor. Not only is he proving that his field goal percentage last season was no fluke, but he has improved his passing posting an insanely high assist rate (for a center) of 17.7. On top of his offensive play, his defense has been very good. He is starting to block shots, he made two blocks that should have swung the momentum of the loss to the Wolves, and he has taken three charges over the previous two games.

His rebounding is much improved and his rebound rate is now in line with what you need from your starting center. Plus he has seemed to get his tendency to foul under control. After fouling out the first two games of the season, he has rarely had to be pulled because of fouls. He is cutting back on the silly reaches that get many big men in trouble.

The bad news is that Nene is only getting 8.9 shots a game. The Nuggets must do a better job of making sure he gets the ball in the post. There are very few bigs who possess both the strength to keep him from getting great position and the quickness to defend him when he drives. Nene has an advantage over almost any player that covers him.

Who?

Has anyone been watching a Nuggets game this season and thought to themselves, “Gosh dang it, they really missed Linas Kleiza tonight!”? Me neither.

Shortcomings

I continue to believe Denver has as good a chance as anyone in the west to face off with the Lakers in the conference finals. It is clear they have talent at every position and can beat anyone anytime. So far this season their defense is not up to par to reach their goals. They have had some good efforts, but the inconsistency is very frustrating. Denver is in the middle of the pack in most of the important defensive statistics and the reason is they are lacking cohesion. I was hoping that having a second training camp of focusing on defense would help them build on their improvements from last season, but that has certainly not been the case.

From a personnel standpoint, the lack of depth in the frontcourt is very concerning. As long as Nene, Kenyon and Birdman stay healthy the Nuggets should be OK, but if one, or God forbid two, go down for a prolonged period of time Denver will be in a world of hurt. In fact they have yet to win a game this season when all three do not play (OK, so that sounds worse than it really is as they lost in Atlanta without Kenyon and in Los Angeles against the Clippers without Birdman, but still, they will struggle to win without all three available).

The bottom line is if the Nuggets want to truly be contenders, they need another big, and not a Johan Petro big, a truly capable one. The bad news is Denver has very little to offer to acquire a player of that ilk. Denver has already forfeited their own first round pick and (wisely) traded away Charlotte’s for the rights to Ty Lawson. As far as expiring contracts, they only have a pittance. I will not put it past Mark Warkentien to find a way to add a player like that, but if he can pull it off, it will take a Festivus miracle.

Record	45 - 21
Pythagorean Record	47.4 - 18.6
Projected Pyth Rec	58.9 - 23.1
Defensive Efficiency	108.2
Offensive Efficiency	115.1
Pace Factor	93.7
Field Goal %	47.4%
Opp Field Goal %	45.6%
Effective FG%	51.6%
Opp Effective FG%	49.4%
True Shooting %	56.9%
Opp True Shooting %	53.2%
Def Rebound Rate	72.6%
Off Rebound Rate	26.0%
Total Rebound Rate	49.7%

Roundball Mining Company - Denver Nuggets Blog

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