And did he ever..

His career high 19 points in 21 minutes, his feisty defense, and a confident poise that went well beyond his young age were a revelation to Nuggets fans who hadn’t yet been given the chance to see him fully showcase his talent. In the following game against the Utah Jazz he scored 18, and two games later against the Houston Rockets 17 points, all at very efficient percentages. The message over this four game stretch was loud and clear:

Evan Fournier is the real deal, and he’s only going to get better.

In this latest installment of the Roundball Mining Company Film Room, I have set out to make nothing less than the definitive video chronicle of Fournier’s coming out party using clips from the three games cited above. As such, the video is longer than the usual Film Room fare. But Fournier’s breakout merits an in-depth analysis of the defensiive and offensive prowess of the Frenchman who has become many Nuggets fans’ new favorite player.

As a final note before we dive in, it should be pointed out that the purpose of this scouting report is to examine Fournier’s skill, aptitude and potentiality, or in other words to focus on his positives with an eye to upside. There will likely come a time for us to look more critically at some weaknesses and things he could do better, but that is outside the scope of this project.

So without further ado, the video, with analysis below:

DEFENSE

Man-to-man defense

• Not so much a lock down defender, but communicates well and plays to the strength of the team defense
• Sticks like glue to his assignment
• Funnels his man into the help defense and cuts off a direct line to the rim

The last bullet point there is probably Fournier’s greatest strength as a defender. I said above that he plays beyond his years, and nowhere is that more apparent than in his defensive awareness. He has a great sense of where to force his assignment to go, and where to prevent him from going. He knows where the help defense will be, and how to channel his man straight into its clutches. And he does a good job of communicating with his teammates to ensure they’re all on the same page. The maturity he displays in handling his defensive responsibilities is a testament not only to the quality of player he is, but also to the value of the experience he got as a professional baller in France.

Solid defensive fundamentals

• Fights through screens
• Stays with his man even through attempted misdirection
• Works hard to keep his assignments out of their preferred spots
• Applies pressure at the perimeter

It’s often said that simply putting in effort is a big part of playing good defense. Andre Miller has gotten a lot of criticism here at RMC for not trying hard enough defensively (see Matt’s analysis here), and the difference in defensive energy when Fournier comes in for him drives the point home further. The rookie is busting his tail pretty much every minute he’s out there, fighting through screens, chasing his assignment around the court, not quite as frenetic as Corey Brewer, but active the whole way.

But it’s not just that he works hard. He’s on a very fast learning curve, and understands the Nuggets’ fairly complicated defensive system very well for a player with his limited experience. He clearly went into Denver with solid defensive fundamentals already tucked under his belt, and his awareness not only of his own responsibilities but also how they fit into the larger context of the team defense is very impressive. Though he does have his lapses, with more time and experience he has the potential to be one of the league’s better defending guards.

Steals

• Very good sense of spacing and timing
• Great at reading opposing offenses and how the play will unfold
• Solid understanding of when he can or can’t afford to slag off his man reduces risk
• Always has an eye on the passing lanes
• Utilizes his length when trapping

Fournier has the fourth highest steal percentage on the Nuggets, edging out Lawson and Chandler, themselves no slouches in the pickpocket department. (Interesting side note: Anthony Randolph is second, trailing only Brewer. Andre Iguodala is third.) As you can see, effort once again comes into play as a good amount of Fournier’s steals result from chasing down the ball handler. But he also has good length and a knack for reading and anticipating the offense, which puts him in a good position to disrupt plays and pick off passing lanes.

Transition defense

• Consistently makes the effort to get back quickly and disrupt fast breaks
• Extremely adept at chasing down and stripping the ball handler
• Makes use of good speed to stay in front of the play
• Plays unselfishly. Uses his court vision to set his teammates up with easy scores off turnovers

Fournier’s transition defense may be one of the most valuable aspects of his game. He has the speed and will to get back fast enough to break up some fast breaks, shaving potential points off the opponent’s total. And with his court vision and playmaking skills, when the transition defense forces a turnover, he’s able to facilitate scoring plays the other way.

I haven’t mentioned the playoffs thus far, but against the Golden State Warriors in particular, this aspect of his game could really be a boon for the Nuggets. The Warriors absolutely love to shoot quick 3-pointers in transition – it’s their bread and butter – and denying them too many easy, high value shot attempts could be the difference between a win or loss, and by extension, the series.

OFFENSE

Driving and finishing

• Great vision and use of screens to find and create driving lanes
• Has the quickness to get past many defenders
• Splits defenders using clever, subtle ball handling and hesitation
• Knows how to finish and use his body to protect the ball

Driving and getting to the line

• Drives aggressively to keep defender backpedaling and draw contact
• Always going straight for the rim, good at not allowing the defender to veer him off course
• Completely fearless in taking it straight to the defense

At the risk of being a bit too repetitive I included a ton of Fournier drives in the video because, well, that’s just how he rolls. As Scott Hastings and Chris Marlowe like to point out, he goes north and south, not east and west. It’s almost as if the basket is a bathtub drain or gravity well. The most natural path Fournier can follow leads him directly to the rim.

It’s this aspect of his game that has already earned him comparisons with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker (in strictly stylistic terms – no grandiose claims are being made here… yet). Layups and free throws resulting from drives comprise the source of the bulk of his scoring.

Of course, it turns out that Masai Ujiri knew exactly what he was doing when he drafted Fournier. His skill set is a perfect match for Denver’s dribble-drive-motion offense, with his ability to penetrate and get to the line, or make the good pass if he gets cut off. And those skills are combined with an utterly fearless, confident mentality. When he sees an opportunity to take it to the rim, there is no hesitation. It’s on.

In the few games he’s played a big role in so far, there have been few opposing defenders he hasn’t been able to beat off the dribble. And once he’s got that step on his man, there’s a high probability he’ll either get to the rim and score, or the defense will have to foul him to prevent that from happening. Quickness, ball handling and some Euro-stepping craftiness combine in drives that consistently slice through the paint, and if the defense allows him to get to the rim, he knows how to finish.

Solid offensive fundamentals

• High basketball IQ
• Strong court awareness and sense of floor spacing
• Great off-the-ball movement
• Very good decision making, doesn’t force the bad play
• Excellent utilization of the baseline to get easy layups and open shots off curls

Decision making may be the most important area of improvement in Fournier’s game this season. Early on, he could get himself into trouble at times with some errant passing and poor shot selection (especially forcing up contested 3-pointers). We can see little of that now, which is an additional exhibit in the case for his high basketball IQ. He’s not without his flaws, but these days he makes very few of the brand of mistakes that would draw Karl’s ire.

One of the most enjoyable and interesting aspects of making this video was focusing on Fournier’s movement off the ball. When he is not the primary ball handler, more often than not he’ll drift down to the right corner. If the pass doesn’t come to him quickly, he’ll run the baseline (or more accurately, out of bounds behind the baseline), looking to open up a play by getting behind the defense. It’s an effective strategy, and using it he gets himself open for a good amount of easy shots at or near the basket.

Passing/Playmaking

• Draws in the defense on drives and creates easy baskets for the bigs
• Good awareness and anticipation of where his teammates are
• In transition, excellent court vision, quick decision making and passing accuracy

Initiating plays in half court sets is an aspect of his game I’d like to see Fournier develop more. It’s because this part of his playmaking is somewhat limited, I presume, that Karl has Iguodala run the point even when Fournier’s on the floor ostensibly as the 1. But that’s a discussion for another time.

For now, the two areas of passing where Fournier is very proficient are (you guessed it) off dribble penetration and in transition. The former will become increasingly important as opponents start elevating his importance on their scouting reports and make a more concerted effort to cut off his drives. But the good news is that he has already displayed a great deal of competence in finding the open man when he draws in the defense in the paint.

In transition, playmaking is all about quick decision making, court vision and accuracy. And Fournier has the complete package. Next season, when he gets the regular rotation spot he has earned by now, and with it more experience playing alongside Denver’s best transition players, it’s a safe bet that we will see him initiating some pretty special transition plays. In fact, we already have.

Range and form

• Fairly quick trigger off the catch-and-shoot, does not hesitate
• Good at finding open shots in spots he likes shooting from
• Solid, fundamentally sound shooting form
• Can pull up at the arc, but keeps it to a minimum (ie. understands and plays within his comfort zone)

When Fournier was originally drafted, his shooting percentages from his time in the French League were worrisome. But once again, Ujiri is smarter than… well, apparently everyone. His selection finished the regular season as Denver’s second best 3-point shooter (.407) after Wilson Chandler (.413). Anecdotal evidence from shootarounds has Nuggets announcers and beat reporters convinced that his long range shot is legit. And his shooting form, while perhaps not having that Ray Allen elegance (though whose does?) is solid, well-balanced, and he gets good lift on his jumpers.

In the regular season, 78.6 percent of Fournier’s 3-pointers were assisted, which basically amounts to four out of five of his threes coming off catch-and-shoots. The great thing about this, when combined with the fact that he doesn’t hesitate on his drives, is that he hardly ever slows down the offense. When he gets the ball at the arc, it’s go time, one way or the other. And one need look no further than his 40 percent 3-point percentage and 70 percent at-rim percentage for confirmation that even though he’s making quick decisions, it’s usually the correct decision.

Transition offense

• Always quick to run up court, good speed helps him get past or stay in front of defenses
• Can take it coast to coast
• Again, unselfish. Keeps his head up, looking to create for his teammates
• As on his half court drives, great at finishing in transition as well

The only thing to add here which hasn’t already been addressed above (after all, many of these categories overlap each other in reality) is Fournier’s speed in getting up the court. He’s not the fastest guy on the team, but when Lawson’s in the mix that’s not a diss. He runs the floor well, but perhaps more importantly than that he has great timing, and gets off to a quick start (this applies to the defensive end as well). His compatibility with a team built on speed is, yet again, more evidence that Ujiri didn’t just draft Fournier for a reason, but for all the right reasons.

In closing, I think it’s safe to say that Nuggets Nation has a lot to be excited about when it comes to Evan Fournier. The impact he’s already made, the contributions he may make this postseason, and what now appears to be an extraordinarily bright future ahead of him.

C’est magnifique!

Statistics from Basketball-Reference.com and HoopData.com.

But he is in fact making progress, and many around the league – including Shaq – are starting to take notice that there’s more to JaVale than just being the NBA’s court jester.

Which is not to say he’s all the way there yet. He continues to be mistake-prone at times. There remains plenty of room for improvement with his fundamentals, and with harnessing his raw, too often unfocused talent into a more controlled style of play with better decision making.

This was all too clear at the beginning of the 2012-13 season. Although McGee had for the most part eliminated the cartoonishly buffoonish mistakes that earned him infamy in Washington, he was still playing out of control much of the time. He had yet to get any sort of handle on the post moves he had studied under Hakeem Olajuwon’s tutelage the previous summer. And on defense, he often got caught out of position, easily duped by head or pump fakes, and seemingly confused in general.

Over the course of the season, however, JaVale has been on a course of measured but steady improvement in these areas. He has learned to show restraint more often in his post play decision making. He still bites on fakes too frequently, but he is doing a better job of keeping his feet on the ground than ever before. And he seems to have expanded his defensive awareness beyond the narrow channel of just swatting at everything that moves to actually manning up on his assignment more often, and being more communicative on defense with his teammates.

On Feb. 25 versus the Los Angeles Lakers, McGee played what arguably was his best defensive game of the season – if not his career. It stood out as a signpost marking the progress he has made on improving his defense. And despite the fact that Dwight Howard’s performance has dropped off considerably this season, it was encouraging to see McGee take it straight to him defensively, and get the better of him more often than might be expected.

In the Roundball Mining Company Film Room today, we take a look at most of McGee’s defensive plays from that game. Some are more in the mold of “traditional JaVale” – opportunistically blocking a shot. One is an error, included for balance, that shows that he still has a tendency to get tricked into jumping sometimes. But many of these plays feature some very sound, heady, and even gritty defensive moves that could seldom be seen before this year.

So the larger point is that if we were to cut clips from McGee’s best defensive game from last November, or last season, it would have been impossible to compile a video such as this one with so many good plays. He is inconsistent, and there have been (and will continue to be) many bumps on the road as he works to improve. But as many Nuggets have have already noticed, and we will see here, he is, in fact, getting better.

Analysis of each clip follows the video.

Clip 1 – McGee does a good job of getting back in transition quickly on this play, and gets himself in a good position to swat the ball away, creating a fast break opportunity for Denver the other way. JaVale often gets a lot of heat for some of his weaknesses such as failing to block out well enough, jumping on fakes and the like. And that criticism is merited. But it should likewise be recognized that one thing he does right defensively with consistency is running the floor to get back in transition. This not only helps prevent easy baskets by their opponents, it also creates a lot of fast break opportunities for Denver.

Clip 2 – This one is fairly self explanatory. Classic JaVale going for the block as the help defender, leading to more fast break points for the Nuggets.

Clip 3 – McGee gets switched onto Steve Blake. He tries to stay with him, but Blake has the quickness to drive past towards the basket. The key thing about this play is that JaVale doesn’t give up on it, instead staying with the play to challenge it at the rim. The goaltending call seems questionable at best to me. I will leave it to you to decide whether it was a legal block or not. But the takeaway here, in my opinion, is that chasing down the play like that is a positive, even if in this case the result didn’t go Denver’s way.

Clip 4 – Somewhat of the traditional JaVale here as well, but what I really like about this play is his vision and awareness. It’s pretty clear that from the moment Antawn Jamison receives the ball, McGee correctly reads exactly how the play is about to unfold, and immediately heads to the basket to put an end to it.

Clip 5 – Another questionable goaltend call dumps some cold water on what otherwise was a very solid play by McGee. Once again he gets back quickly in transition, and gets himself positioned in front of Jamison to challenge the shot at the rim. And once again the result was a negative for the Nuggets (though it’s doubtful it should have been), but JaVale’s running and positioning, like how he stayed with the play in Clip 3, are positives in terms of his development as a defender. These are all good defensive habits for him to cultivate and establish consistently.

Clip 6 – McGee is improving, but we’re not out of the woods yet. He’s still sometimes too eager to go for the big play instead of the more fundamentally sound play, and when he gets caught up in the action, he can be a bit too excitable. I included this clip for balance, to show that he still has a ways to go. But what’s important to remember is that it was not too long ago when most of JaVale’s games would feature many more of these.

Clip 7 – This play is essentially the opposite of Clip 6. McGee does everything right here even though Kobe Bryant clearly has the advantage when he gets switched onto him. Kobe attempts to drive by, but JaVale does a good job of staying in front of him. Not only that, he trusts his help defenders in Corey Brewer to keep Kobe pinned in the lane, and in Jordan Hamilton to get his back at the rim. He stays on his feet and shows some great patience in waiting for the perfect opportunity to time his block correctly. It is still somewhat rare to see McGee playing with this kind of defensive maturity and completeness. But the fact that he has demonstrated the ability to do it, and that it’s happening more often, is great news for his development.

Clip 8 – I’m not sure that the way JaVale positions himself in this play is something I’d want to see him do too much when he’s covering a player like Dwight, and I’m really sure it’s something I’d never like to see from shorter frontcourt players like Kenneth Faried. More often than not, it would be preferable to position himself inside, attempting to deny Howard position near the rim, and defending him straight up (as he does in Clip 9). But this is one of those situations where McGee’s freakish length and athleticism come into play. Against a lot of players in the league, if Dwight had the inside position so close to the basket as he does here, Steve Nash would likely take the opportunity to lob it over the defender for an easy alley-oop. With JaVale defending him, however, that’s not really an option, and Nash attempts a very un-Nash-like soft entry pass instead, and McGee is easily able to swat it away. A play like this is a good sign that McGee is developing better awareness of how to use his physical attributes in smarter ways to expand his defensive skill set.

Clip 9 – This is the JaVale McGee Nuggets fans should dream of seeing more regularly in the not-too-distant future. Controlled. Patient. Tough. Staying on his feet, and keeping Dwight away from the rim. Mentally ready to go for the block, but letting the chance come to him rather than forcing the issue. Just a beautiful, perfectly executed defensive play from start to finish.

The more we see of what McGee is truly capable of, the more frustrating it will become when he doesn’t deliver. So much of what makes or breaks the quality of his defensive play seems to be about mental focus. The effort is nearly always there; that’s not a problem.

It is difficult to unlearn bad habits, and when the Nuggets coaching staff took on the challenge of undoing the nearly four years of damage that was done to McGee’s game in Washington, and setting him on a course for better fundamentals and a more controlled, well-rounded style of play, nobody should have expected things to get better overnight.

And it has taken – is taking – some time. But if JaVale’s pace of development continues as it has this season, or perhaps even accelerates as he becomes more comfortable with his new, better habits and more disabused of his bad, old ones, then it will be huge for the Nuggets.

“Dominant” is not a word often used to describe JaVale McGee, but if he can find his way to defending at the higher level he has shown himself to be capable of, that may well change in the future. And if that happens, the Nuggets will be one step closer to reaching that next tier and becoming a legitimate contender.

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Unfortunately, we are back in the Film Room today to visit what essentially was the opposite scenario. In their heartbreaking road loss to the Celtics on Feb. 10, the Nuggets were down just two points with 48 seconds remaining in the game’s third overtime when Miller retrieved the rebound off a missed Kevin Garnett jumper. And as every Nuggets fan not living under a rock is well aware, from there the train rapidly derailed from the tracks.

The Film Room video, followed by analysis of Miller’s play and George Karl’s coaching, is after the jump.

Miller tries to force a post-up, turns the ball over

As the play unfolds, three Celtics defenders are crunched together at the top the key, leaving Wilson Chandler completely alone on the weak side. Instead of dishing off to Chandler, who could have taken a wide open 3-pointer, driven to the basket largely unimpeded, or dished it off to Danilo Gallinari for a higher percentage 3-pointer or a drive attempt, Miller dribbles the ball straight into a very ready Jason Terry, and the teeth of Boston’s defense.

Miller luckily recovers the ball after having it swatted away by Terry, who is doing an excellent job of hounding him as he attempts to post up. At that point, he has several options. He could dribble back out the perimeter and reset the play himself, or call Ty Lawson over to the wing and pass it to him for the same purpose (with 15 seconds on the shot clock there was plenty of time). Or, from his position in the high post, he could either call for Ty to cut, or pass across to Chandler, who in turn could either take a wide open 3-pointer, pass it to Lawson, or pass it to Gallo, who is in the process of curling along the baseline to the weak side. Instead, he fails to learn the lesson of Terry having knocked the ball out of his hands once already. Alas, determined to post up and get a shot for himself, Miller once again plays straight into the hands of his defender and promptly loses the ball. This costs Denver a possession in which they could have tied the game or taken the lead.

Miller jacks up a tightly contested 3-pointer for the loss

The salient point to remember about the final Nuggets possession is that Andre Miller is a .211 3-point shooter. This literally is the worst, lowest percentage shot that the Nuggets could take. (Within reason, of course. While Faried shooting a 3-pointer would be even worse, that realistically would never happen anyhow.) Among all shots Denver might plausibly decide to take, Miller chose the one which was unquestionably the most likely to fail. This needs to be kept on the front burner as you read through the rest of this.

After Chandler does a great job of contesting Paul Pierce’s jumper and forcing the miss, Faried rebounds and passes the ball to Miller. I’m not sure if Kenneth didn’t see Lawson, chose on his own to pass to Dre, or was directed by the coaches to do so. But here’s a memo to the Manimal: AGL. When the option is there, Always Go Lawson.

Had Miller been looking for his teammates instead of straight ahead at the basket, he might have noticed that once again Boston’s defense was converging around the top of the key, and leaving other Nuggets players open. Dre had the option to open up the play by getting the ball to the weak side via Faried or Gallo. But not only did he fail to pass the ball, he wasn’t even close to looking for another option.

Had Miller come to the realization that he was about to make a terrible play and pulled up on his shot at the last second rather than firing away, he might have found a way out. By way of Gallinari, one of three teammates who were better positioned and less well defended were all hands up and waiting to take Denver’s final shot. But once again Miller was determined to take the shot himself.

Keep in mind folks, this is the smartest, most seasoned, most trustworthy and least selfish player on the Denver Nuggets roster. At least according to one person.

But once again (alas!) he opted not to pass the ball to a teammate with a better look, and instead played right into the defense of Jason Terry, who deserves high praise (painful as it may be for Nuggets fans to offer it) for his clutch defensive efforts. And it was… Game. Set. Match.

Originally titled: “Final thoughts”

More appropriately titled: “This is inexcusable”

One additional point that needs to be made is that there was not a center on the floor in those final possessions. With the exception of Andre Iguodala, who gets a big chunk of his at-rim shots in transition, the two Nuggets players with the highest field goal percentage five feel or less from the rim are JaVale McGee and Kosta Koufos. The fact that neither of them were in the game for a potential easy lob or dunk was a major coaching failure. I would call it an oversight if it weren’t for the fact that we know from experience that this was quite deliberate on Karl’s part. George grooves hard on no-center finishes.

As for Andre Miller… Well, what can you say?

There has never been a successful demonstration of psychic abilities under controlled, replicable conditions, and I certainly do not claim to have any such powers myself. So I will not claim that Miller “sabotaged” this game deliberately, or try to read motive into his body language, or otherwise attempt to second guess about why he chose to do what he did on these last two plays of such a huge game. I have no idea. I hope, at the very least, he was deluded enough to think that he had his team’s best interest in mind.

What I have absolutely no qualms about saying, however, is that both plays were not only obscenely selfish but utterly stupid. He clearly had no intention on either play of finding any of his teammates a better shot than he might get for himself. He was purely looking to shoot, hell bent on posting up in the first play, and blatantly not even going through the motions of looking to pass before launching the clank heard around the world in the second.

To add insult to injury, George Karl actually praised Miller for that miserable 3-point attempt:

The last shot on Andre, I think Andre wanted to win the game. I know you can question that shot, but in a sense I kind of liked it. I like to have a guy on my team that has the guts to take that shot.

Many Nuggets fans have long bashed their heads against the wall over Karl’s maddeningly illogical player favoritism, but this takes it to a whole new level. It is downright insulting to our collective fan base intelligence. As caring, knowledgeable, observant basketball aficionados, it’s worse than a sucker slap in the face from Melo followed by a Reggie Evans nutgrab.

Well. That may be a slight exaggeration.

But I will say it again because it bears repeating:

The salient point to remember about the final Nuggets possession is that Andre Miller is a .211 3-point shooter. This literally is the worst, lowest percentage shot that the Nuggets could take.

If Karl genuinely “kind of likes” that shot, then all we can hope for right now is that Masai Ujiri is sitting in the Nuggets front office discussing with Josh Kroenke whether Karl’s obsessive affection for Miller has become so unhealthy that he can no longer be considered competent enough to coach this team.

Everything that Karl constantly praises about Miller: His smarts. His wisdom. His veteran savvy. His selflessness. If Miller is prepared to throw all of that out the window at the cost of his team’s success in order to play hero ball at the most crucial juncture of a huge road trip going into All-Star break, then Karl must be prepared to take the same kind of punitive action against him that he would (and has) against the likes of JaVale McGee and Jordan Hamilton for making similar mistakes. Benching him for one or more games. Limiting his minutes. Decreasing his role and increasing Lawson’s.

But if Karl instead not only gives him a free pass but actually glorifies the crap Miller pulled in Boston – and it indeed was crap – then his credibility as a coach who manages his team judiciously, with high standards that are applied equally to all players across the roster, must be called into question. And whether keeping him on board as the head coach of the Nuggets is the best thing for their present and future must be called into doubt.

I have never really been big on the “Fire George Karl” bandwagon, and I certainly do not believe that he is the only reason for the struggles the Nuggets have faced this season. And it may seem crass to raise such a stink over the first loss on the heels of a nine game winning streak. Running a major professional sports franchise is a complex operation, and responsibility is borne – though not in equal parts – by all its members, including the players.

But here, to me, are the pertinent questions: What kind of a message does it send to the players – let alone the fans – for Karl to condone – and worse, promote – Miller’s markedly selfish end-of-game play in Boston? How sustainable can such a situation be when it comes to preserving harmony and morale in the locker room? We have already begun to see the first cracks appear, and not insignificantly, it was Andre Miller who exposed them in his recent expression of dissatisfaction with his role coming off the bench and limited playing time.

And have the Nuggets performed so well this year after their poor start because of Karl’s coaching, or in spite of it? Many of their recent wins (Indiana and Milwaukee come to mind) point to talent overcoming a lack of proper preparation, and luck overcoming the excessive use of small ball no-center lineups to close out games.

All Nuggets fans should hoipe for is that the front office to assemble the best possible roster, and that the coaching staff – with the head coach leading the way – maximize its potential. And when it comes to the latter, when veterans are rewarded for making dumb, selfish mistakes that young players are punished for (despite those mistakes being merely a part of their developmental process), how much confidence can we have that Karl is really getting the best out of this team?

And when such coaching blunders cost the team precious wins that could well make the difference in having home court advantage in the playoffs, how much confidence can the players have in the leadership of their leader?

My confidence, regarding both questions, is waning.

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Prior to the beginning of the 2012-13 season, the Denver Nuggets hired new assistant coach Vance Walberg, famous in basketball circles for creating what’s known as the dribble-drive-motion offense. He officially joined the staff after having consulted for Denver the previous season. At that time Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post described how Walberge implemented his innovative system: as a high school and college coach:

Walberg would put four players on the perimeter and, as one player attacked the basket, the offensive post player would open space by moving to the weak side of the lane. Meanwhile, the other three perimeter players would rotate accordingly. If that particular dribble-drive play failed, the next ball handler would just dribble and drive again.

George Karl elaborated on how the Nuggets incorporate dribble-drive-motion concepts in their offense:

We create our penetration off pick-and-rolls more than [Walberg] teaches, but the principles hold true both ways. It’s just trying to get the ball free to where the defense has to help. And then teaching what happens after that. Everyone has always penetrated the ball, but we teach the reads.

With the score tied and about 15 second remaining in Denver’s Jan. 15 game versus the Portland Trailblazers, Chandler got free in the corner and hit what essentially was the game winning 3-pointer. His open look was set up when the Nuggets used a dribble-drive-motion play to get Portland’s defense a little off balance, with the help lagging just enough to create an opportunity for a good look at the basket.

Here is a step-by-step breakdown of the play, followed by the video. (Click on the thumbnails to enlarge).

As the play starts, Ty Lawson takes the ball to the left side of the court, where Danilo Gallinari moves in to set a screen for him. The other three Nuggets players clear out the paint to open up a lane for Lawson, with Chandler running across to the weak side while Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala move out to the perimeter.

Damian Lillard moves under Gallo’s screen to cut off the lane as Lawson begins his dribble penetration. Meanwhile, Iguodala rotates to a better spot on the perimeter.

As Jared Jeffries goes over to help Lillard cut off the drive, Lawson dishes out to Iguodala and gives Jeffries just enough of a bump (there’s hardly enough there to call it a screen) to cause him to lose half step as he chases Iguodala, who is already driving to the basket.

Because Jeffries was unable to prevent Iguodala’s penetration, LaMarcus Aldridge, who is covering Chandler, is forced to help stop the drive to the basket. Chandler gets loose and cuts across the baseline to the corner.

Aldridge is too late in his recovery. By the time he’s flying out towards the corner, Chandler is already in the air releasing his jumper, which catches nothing but net.

Of course, in this case it was a happy ending for Denver. But obviously the entire dribble-drive-motion concept is predicated on the notion that, when successive drives get cut off, there will be shooters on the perimeter who can knock down open shots. As Nuggets fans are well aware, this is an area where Denver has struggled mightily this season.

The result of lacking the perimeter shooting dimension has been opponents packing the paint and limiting the success of Denver’s offensive game plan. This is not to say that it has been entirely unsuccessful. The Nuggets are blowing away the league in points in the paint with 56.2 per game. The Los Angeles Clippers are second with 46.6, nearly a full 10 points fewer, to give you some idea of how dominant the Nuggets have been in that area. And Denver is seventh in offensive efficiency at 105.2. Considering their shooting woes this season, that could be a whole lot worse.

But it could be better, too. The Nuggets would be even more efficient if they had at least one more reliable perimeter threat who could create better floor spacing to open up more driving lanes and open shots. It will be interesting to see if Masai Ujiri makes a deadline deal for a stretch four (my personal preference) or a sharpshooting guard who can meet this need.

Here’s the video:

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And no, this is not about his stunning buzzer beating 3-pointer, though that is certainly what will cement his performance permanently in the collective memory of NBA fandom.

But just as notably, he matched his career high of three assists. He had accomplished this only once before, on Mar. 20, 2011. Thus far this season, McGee has had 20 games with zero dimes, 12 games with just one, and now, a single game with three.

About a month into the 2012-13 season, I did a video scouting report calling for JaVale to make a more concerted effort to pass the ball out of the post rather than forcing so many hasty, contested shots. In this recent game we had a chance to see just how effective McGee can be when looking to share the ball, so it offers a great opportunity to follow up on the topic.

Here we will take a look at his three assists, though it should be noted that the first and third are the most pertinent to the previous report, as he dished the second on a fast break, not in a half court set.

We will also look at three wasted possessions in which JaVale passes up the chance to distribute the ball to open teammates, resulting in missed shots. Contrary to the bumbling caricature which Shaquille O’Neal and others have carefully cultivated for comedic purposes over the years, McGee is actually one of the most efficient players on the Nuggets. His 22.8 PER is tenth best in the league, and his .583 FG% is third.

But imagine just how much more effective he could be if he found a way to focus better on finding open teammates when stuck with bad shots. One can only hope that the Nuggets coaching staff is working with JaVale to help him make progress in this underdeveloped area of his game.

The positive value of his assists is fairly self evident, but here’s a brief breakdown of each wasted possession:

Wasted possession 1

Here Andre Iguodala passes the ball to McGee just outside the elbow. The paint is packed with a wall of three defenders, but rather than passing to an open 3-point shooter in Danilo Gallinari to his right, he drives left straight into the wall, and floats a contested hook shot. It is well out of his range, as he shoots just 30 percent from the paint outside the restricted area, and the result is a miss.

Wasted possession 2

On this play, JaVale drives to the middle of the paint and backs up against Blake Griffin, who is quickly joined by Lamar Odom for the double team. This time Corey Brewer is the man wide open at the arc, and since Odom has switched to help, Koufos is also open near the basket. Fournier is another potential target, albeit a more difficult one. The worst part of this play is that a full 15 seconds remain on the shot clock, allowing for plenty of time to get a better look at the basket. Instead, McGee does a spin move to an out of range jumper, which results not only in a missed shot, but two quick fast break points for the Clippers the other way.

Wasted possession 3

Here JaVale gets the ball in the low post against Griffin with six seconds remaining on he shot clock. Given his height advantage, and the fact that little time remained, this is probably the most forgivable of the three misses we are reviewing. However, both Evan Fournier and Corey Brewer get wide open on the perimeter with plenty of time left to pass and shoot. Finding either of them would result in a better, higher percentage shot than the spinning fadeaway jumper McGee misses from well outside the paint, where he’s a 29 percent shooter.

And without further ado, here is the complete video scouting report:

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That’s when Andre Miller decided to take over the game.

In just a minute forty-four seconds, he commandeered a 10-point run, scoring eight points with one assist and one very hard-fought rebound. Essentially, he almost single-handedly delivered this victory for the Nuggets. It is important to note, though, that JaVale McGee also deserves a fair amount of credit for setting two screens that set up Miller’s shots, and running the floor for an easy cherry-picked dunk.

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Compare his usage rate with that of Koufos, lowest among rotation players at 12.4 percent, and Faried, third lowest at 18.6 percent. (A surprising side note here is that Andre Miller is second lowest with a 17.6 percent usage rate that’s very modest considering how much he handles the ball). In short, Kosta and Kenneth should be given a free pass for their low assist rates, because the vast majority of the time, when they get the ball, they’re right there at the rim, and the best thing to do is immediately put it in the basket.

This is not always the case with JaVale, who handles the ball in the post much more than the other two. Examining the data from MySynergySports.com, we can see that in many ways the shot selection of all three players is fairly similar across the board. However, there are three play types which one player uses significantly more than the other two:

Faried and Koufos take more shots off offensive rebounds and cuts, respectively, than their frontcourt counterparts. Both of these play types, of course, necessitate taking the ball to the rim. There is no place for passing there. McGee, however, has a higher percentage of post-ups than the other two, a play from which he has the option to pass or shoot.

But pass he does not. This season McGee is averaging less than half an assist per game. More starkly put, in 13 games he has dished out a single lone assist in five different games, and zero assists in the remaining eight games. It’s also worth noting that three of his assists this season were made in transition, and just two made in the flow of an offensive set (one from the top of the key, and one from the low post). As a general rule, once JaVale gets the ball in position, he gets tunnel vision straight to the basket, and everything else on the court fades out of sight and out of mind.

All of this might not be as great a problem if it weren’t for the fact that JaVale is scoring a measly 0.5 points per possession on post-ups. Compare that with Marc Gasol’s 1.09, Tim Duncan’s 0.99, or for that matter Andre Miller’s 1.05 PPP from the post, and it’s easy to see that McGee still has a long way to go in getting a handle on the moves he learned from Hakeem Olajuwon last summer and putting them to positive effect.

In the meantime, as he finds his way through that process with the guidance of the coaching staff, he needs to improve his own and his team’s efficiency by making a concerted effort to dish it out more often from the post when the occasion calls for it. This would result in fewer wasted possessions, as probable missed shots got replaced by plays kept alive for more open, higher percentage shots.

Perhaps just as importantly, if opposing defenses know that JaVale always shoots and never dishes to cutters or shooters, then they are not kept honest. They can collapse on McGee with double or even triple teams with no fear of getting punished for leaving the perimeter unguarded. He can potentially earn himself better shots by forcing defenses to respect his ability to find open shots for his teammates.

What follows are breakdowns of the five clips in the video at the bottom of this post. (If you open the video up in Youtube, you can jump to any clip by clicking the times in the description). All we can do is hope that the Nuggets film crew is working closely with McGee to show him similar footage and stress the importance of the kinds of points we’re making here.

Clip 1 – Missed running hook shot

This is one of those cases where McGee is so determined to make his move to the basket that he completely fails to survey the court. The first time he gets the ball on this possession, he does the right thing and passes out of the hard double team. But the second time around, in his haste to take a shot, he doesn’t recognize that the defense has collapsed into the middle, and misses the opportunity to dish it out to either Jordan Hamilton or Andre Iguodala, both of whom are wide open. As a side note on this clip, Danilo Gallinari sets a very nice screen on Kevin Love to give JaVale room to operate. It would be great to see him set these kinds of hard screens more often on pick and rolls with the point guards.

Clip 2 – Missed short range jump shot

In this clip, Tiago Spillter does a good job of preventing JaVale from getting position, holding him to the side of the key where he gets the ball from Andre Miller. McGee makes a nice spin move to shake off Splitter, but similarly to clip 1, the defense has sunk into the paint. There are two help defenders lurking nearby ready to close in on JaVale, which they promptly do when he makes his move. affecting his shot and most likely causing the miss. Meanwhile, both Jordan Hamilton and Corey Brewer are standing around wide open at the 3-point arc.

Clip 3 – Blocked jump shot

Here McGee gets the ball in a good low post spot against Haslem. As he dribbles and gets ready to make a move, Dwyane Wade quickly steps in to double. JaVale’s first mistake here is making the bad decision to spin to his right, away from the basket and directly into Wade’s help defense. Had he spun left, he’d have a better chance of scoring. He does go right, however, and instead of passing to a wide open Brewer for three, or Miller to reset the play, he attempts to spin all the way around to face the basket, taking an off balance step-back jumper that is promptly blocked by Wade. Fortunately the Nuggets get the ball back and salvage two points, but more often than not plays like this will simply result in a missed shot and the waste of a valuable possession.

Clip 4 – Missed short range jump shot (2)

Something we’ve seen so often from JaVale this season is that when he gets the ball, rather than taking half a second to collect himself, he makes an immediate move to score. This often results simultaneously in bad, contested shots and missed opportunities. In this clip, the instant he receives the ball he attempts a jumper with Chris Bosh facing him up, missing it off the glass and leaving Danilo Gallinari and Brewer wide open at the arc.

Clip 5 – Pass out of double team

Here’s a good example of one thing McGee should try to do more often. After Andre Miller feeds him the ball in the low post, he’s immediately doubled. Rather than attempt to force a bad, contested shot, he finds Miller again, who in turn sets him up for an open mid-range jumper. Although that’s not the ideal shot for JaVale to take, he made the right move to pass out of the double, and took the shot his point guard gave him. It might be argued that he could have attempted to pass to a wide open Ty Lawson, but when you’re open and get the ball with just2.6 seconds remaining, there’s little to do but take that shot. That said, the real moral of the story here is that more often than not, when faced with a double team, McGee doesn’t pass out of it as seen in this clip, but rather attempts a difficult contested shot.

The most disappointing thing might be that McGee is, in fact, quite a capable passer when he puts his mind to it. It just seems that he’s either uninterested in making the effort, or unaware of the impotance of doing so. Perhaps next summer, if he studies under the tutelage of Hakeem again, they can focus on passing rather than post moves. For now, JaVale should watch film of Marc Gasol, who may be emerging as this generation’s best passing big man. His patient, measured play, how he lets the game come to him rather than trying to force it, his unselfish willingness to share the ball, assessing the location of his teammates and the defense before making a move – all of these are the lessons JaVale needs to learn.

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My main purpose in choosing this game is that it’s one of Chandler’s all-time best. Unfortunately, between injuries and his decision to play most of last season in China, we’ve had only a limited opportunity to see what Wilson can contribute to this Nuggets team when he’s fully healthy and really hitting his stride. In this game we can see what’s pretty much a best-case-scenario-Chandler, especially in terms of shooting and defense. He went 10-17, including 5-9 from the arc, with seven rebounds, an assist, a steal and a block. A huge part of the reason Denver lost was that Melo took 27 shots but only made 11 of them, and that was due in no small part to the defensive efforts of Gallo and Chandler, some of which can be seen in this video.

The bottom line is that if this is the Wilson Chandler who shows up this season, and especially if the point guards can set him up for easy, open spot-up buckets as effectively as Raymond Felton does in this game (though granted, they were admittedly playing against Denver’s perimeter defense), he will soon prove to be a significant upgrade over Al Harrington on both the offensive and defensive ends, provided that he can return to full health. And if he truly recovers that spark in his game which he really hasn’t had since leaving the Knicks, he definitely has a legitimate chance of making some noise in both the Most Improved Player and 6^th Man discussions.

A final thought: It’s really hard to get over how completely this Nuggets team has changed in so little time. This game was less than two years ago, and it already seems like ancient history. Shelden Williams and Gary Forbes just about says it all.

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The goal in making this video is to zoom in on the variety of ways in which Denver’s perimeter defense broke down in 2011-12. We should have more analysis on this later, but in the meantime, please feel free to pick these clips apart in the comments. For the time being, the only thing I’d offer as a general, overarching observation is that as I put this video together it became increasingly apparent to me that simply improving communication and decreasing confusion — ie. teaching the young players to develop a better understanding of rotating, recovering, switching, and knowing what to do when they get back in transition — could improve this defense by leaps and bounds. Given this, it may be the case that even more imp;ortant than his individual defensive skills, Andre Iguodala’s ability to quarterback a defense could facilitate a marked improvement in this team.

It was a huge game for the Nuggets. And despite the hype surrounding the St. Patty’s-Boston imagery, the most important symbolism of the game was when George Karl uncharacteristically entrusted a rookie, Kenneth Faried, to close out the final minutes of a closely contested contest.

And the Manimal delivered.  Scoring 18 points on perfect shooting, including five of five from the field and eight of eight from the line, Faried also grabbed 16 rebounds — 6 offensive — with a steal and a block on top. Beyond the stat line, he was the engine that fueled the team’s energy and drive with infectious, relentless effort. And he played a crucial role in earning the Nuggets victory.