As for the ongoing Wilson Chandler saga that’s caused quite the confusion within Nuggets Nation, it appears we finally have some clarity and resolution thanks to a few loyal Roundball Mining Company readers and primarily salary cap guru, Larry Coon. According to Coon:

Restricted free agents can’t sign offer sheets after March 1 of any season, and this season is no exception… If Chandler wants to play in the NBA after March 1, his only option will be to return to the Denver Nuggets… A sign-and-trade arrangement, in which one of these players is signed by his previous team and immediately traded to a new team, is out of the question. The new collective bargaining agreement prohibits sign-and-trades after the season starts… So if [Wilson Chandler and Aaron Brooks] return to the NBA after March 1 and don’t sign with their previous teams, they likely must wait until this summer – when they again will be subject to restricted free agency. It’s potentially a no-win situation for both.

In summary, if Chandler is to return and receive his FIBA letters of clearance before March 1, he can sign an offer sheet from any team in the NBA which Denver has the option to match; however, the Nuggets cannot complete a sign-and-trade with Chandler and another team since the season has already gotten underway. Conversely, if Chandler’s team in China is to make the playoffs and therefore postpones his return until after March, he then has two options: either re-sign with the Nuggets or wait until this summer when he can sign an offer sheet with another team which Denver would still have the option to match.

The scenarios that could possibly play out in the next month will be fascinating from a Nuggets perspective. If Chandler is to return before March 1 and in turn, signs an offer sheet from another team, it will likely be one the Nuggets are less than thrilled about matching. In fact, it’s entirely possible that a team with ample cap space could offer Chandler a contract north of the $10 million per season range which would put the Nuggets roughly that same amount over the cap threshold this year. Would Stan Kroenke be willing to pay this? If not, the Nuggets could theoretically lose Chandler — by far its best trade asset — and get nothing back in return. But if Kroenke does give the green light to match, then the Nuggets would almost certainly explore trade options sometime next year in order to free up what would be an unnecessary contract from its payroll, which in turn would create much needed cap room to re-sign Ty Lawson.

The most beneficial scenario from a Nuggets standpoint is, without question, Wilson Chandler returning after March 1. This would prevent him from signing a potential catastrophe of a contract from another team and would guarantee that if he wanted to play in the NBA this year, he’d have to re-sign with the Nuggets. Masai Ujiri and Josh Kroenke won’t be foolish either. Signing Chandler to a one or two-year deal, even if inexpensive, will subtract all future trade value he may possess after entering the market as a restricted free agent. Ideally if March 1 passes and Chandler still greatly desires to play in the NBA this season, the Nuggets should use their leverage and coax him into signing a frugal, long-term deal that undersells his current value but ensures him the right to play this season. Not only would this make the decision to keep Chandler long term much easier, but if the Nuggets did ever decide to trade him, he’d be an extremely valued asset due to his cap-friendly contract. If Chandler and his agent don’t go for the relatively moderate payday the Nuggets offer up and instead decide to wait until summer to cash in, the Nuggets also benefit as they’ll still have the right to match whatever offer he receives and in all likelihood will be able to pull off a sign-and-trade that sends an asset or two back Denver’s way.

Lastly, here’s a pretty cool video featuring Wednesday’s starter at small forward, Julyan Stone.

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A note on the recent struggles (by Charlie)

With the team currently mired in their worst slump in years, morale is predictably low among Nuggets faithful. There’s no doubt things don’t look good and figure to get worse before getting any better. While losing 5 out of the last 6 games has been no fun for anyone, I do think fans are jumping the gun on declaring the Nuggets’ season in jeopardy.

The fact that the Nuggets are struggling at home only makes losses hurt worse. The Nuggets’ best basketball has been played in other arenas and fans aren’t witnessing the signature mile-high blowouts the Pepsi Center is known for. Fans have every right to be upset and demand the Nuggets find a way to fix this. They simply cannot afford to squander one of the best home court advantages in the N.B.A. during a season like this.

There are legitimate concerns about the Nuggets poor play as of late. While I hate making excuses for losses, the impact of the recent losing streak has been way overblown. Scheduling woes and injuries have much more to do with the losses than the Nuggets simply being a bad team.

What’s getting lost in the shuffle is how hard the Nuggets are playing despite the losses. They nearly squeaked out a win against the Lakers after being on the wrong end of a national TV back-to-back in Denver (a loss for the traveling team something like 80% of the time). Andre Miller gave away a big lead in Memphis with turnovers and missed free throws. Gallo went down with a chip fracture at the worst possible time.

The only totally bad game in this recent stretch was a double digit loss in Portland. I’m convinced no team in the N.B.A. had a legitimate shot of winning such a brutally scheduled game. It was the third in three nights and a stretch of four in five in which the Nuggets traveled and switched time zones every game. In all honesty that loss could not have been realistically avoided. In all likelihood it didn’t matter who played and that’s why I argued most of the regular rotation should have sat out.

The Nuggets badly need a win right now. The defense is in total freefall and remains a big-time concern, but they are still a deep team with a winning brand of basketball. I expect the Nuggets to come out desperate tonight and eventually right the ship despite the ridiculously difficult schedule ahead.

Fans are also ignoring a lot of the good developments coming out of these hard times. The rookies are seeing their first real action and showing promise. Although Kenneth Faried didn’t have the spectacular double-double debut many were somehow predicting, he gave us a great glimpse of what makes him such a unique and promising player. Kenneth gave a tremendous effort every possession and he plays defense with pride. Faried will endear himself to George Karl and have a bright future in Denver, it just can’t come soon enough for Nuggets fans who want to see more right now.

It’s no secret the Nuggets are in a defensive rut. Karl is responding with one of the wackiest starting lineups all season against the Mavericks. It’s clear his aim is to get the Nuggets off to a better start so the defensively-challenged Andre Miller isn’t asked to dig the bench out of a hole. Assuming Birdman and Stone get the defense off to a better start, you have to wonder about where the offense will come from considering there are no shooters and scorers surrounding Nene. Right now, it’s better to worry about fixing the defense and let the offense figure itself out later. While I find it strange, I have  great respect for what Karl is hoping to accomplish.

Julyan Stone is going to pull the illustrious honor of starting and defending Vince Carter and Jason Terry. Although I was harsh on Stone for his lack of production against the Rockets, he held Kevin Martin to 1-9 shooting and made him a complete non factor throughout the game. Stone is another rotation player coming out of his shell before our eyes, but it’s just hard to keep a starter on the floor if he’s unable to put any points on the board. I expect Stone to eventually figure it out and come through with a big time performance if Karl continues to show this kind of confidence in him.

The Nuggets have to defend the perimeter and start running a more fluid offense immediately. Like I said, they are desperate for a win right now and despite everything working against them, they’re going to figure it out and play much better. Whether or not that happens tonight remains to be seen, but their fortunes will change so long as they keep playing hard and developing talent. There is still much of the season left and great things to be found if you can stomach looking beyond this depressing spat of losing.

Now, while die-hard fans — like those who frequent this blog — may be thrilled at the concept of Faried and Stone playing big minutes, it’s important to keep in mind just how paramount this upcoming home stand will be for the Nuggets. After playing four of the next five games at home, Denver will once again hit the road for a Western Conference swing very similar to the one the Nuggets just went 1-4 on. In addition to facing the Thunder, Mavericks, Grizzlies and Clippers at their home arenas, the Nuggets will also travel to Indiana to take on the Pacers who currently have the fifth best record in the entire league; therefore, taking care of business at home will be imperative, and it starts tonight.

Houston is a team the Nuggets cannot afford to overlook. Although the Rockets sit on a moderate 13-11 record, they’re also one of the hottest teams in the entire league having won 11 of their last 16 games. They also have a handful of very underrated players capable of inflicting unforeseen damage like perhaps no other team in the NBA. Starting with 6-11 center and former member of Roundball Mining Company’s “Players the Nuggets should consider signing” list, Samuel Dalembert, in addition to the hard-working power forward, Luis Scola, the Rockets will trot out a front court with lightyears more experience than than Nuggets. Dalembert has already recorded 10 or more rebounds on nine different occasions this year, including four occasions in which he hauled in at least 15 boards. He also ranks ninth in the NBA in both offensive rebounds and total rebounds per 48 minutes as well as sixth in blocks — three categories the Nuggets are sorely lacking in at the moment. Scola on the other hand, while having somewhat of a down year numerically, still has the ability to fill it up and has always given the Nuggets problems with his hustle and refined post game.

Although their front line is certainly nothing to scoff at, the real test for the Nuggets on Monday will come from Houston’s back court. Kevin Martin and Kyle Lowry combine to form one of the best back-court tandems in the league and are both legitimate backup candidates for the All Star team. While Martin ranks third in points per game and PER among all shooting guards, Lowry ranks first among players at his position in rebounds, fourth in steals, fifth in 3-pointers made and eighth in assists per game. Julyan Stone and Ty Lawson must hold these two in check in order to give Denver a fighting chance at winning the game. Seeing how both Stone and Faried play against starting-caliber NBA players on Monday should go a long way in understanding where these players stand at the moment, as it will be the first time all year that both players will have logged heavy minutes together outside of garbage time.

Well, it’s worth noting the Lakers’ early season road schedule has been very difficult. They’ve had games in Sacramento (always a tough venue), Utah (where they won), Denver (the second end of a back-to-back against the Nuggets), Portland, the Clippers, Miami and Orlando back-to-back, Milwaukee, and Minnesota (a win). The Bucks were an inexcusable loss with Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson out, but the rest of those games aren’t automatic gimmes. Factor in how the Lakers played a boatload of games in the first 3-4 weeks and the lack of practice time to learn a new system, and it’s not perhaps shocking they haven’t been good on the road.

Tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers doesn’t feature the same hype and excitement surrounding the Knicks contest, but it’s no less symbolic for Nuggets fans witnessing Chauncey Billups’ first return to the Pepsi Center since the infamous trade marking the end of the Melo era.

I have to admit, I never wanted Chauncey Billups traded. It wasn’t until very late in the Melodrama that I ultimately accepted the fact Denver’s native son had to be sacrificed in order to ensure a viable post-Carmelo future.

Chauncey’s arrival in 2008 validated the Carmelo Anthony era. After years of unsuccessfully building around a budding young star, Billups was the piece that completed the Nuggets’ transition from first-round fodder to a legitimate contender in western conference. I strongly believe the 2009 and 2010 seasons were the best chances Denver has ever had at a championship. Chauncey Billups’ storybook return home was probably the biggest factor in that transformation.

In the end, Melo and the Nuggets grew apart before their time came. Josh Kroenke and Masai Ujiri were forced to make the difficult but necessary decision to trade Billups and move forward with a youth movement centered around Gallo and Ty Lawson.  Looking back, it wasn’t the fitting end to Chauncey’s career Nuggets fans desperately wanted; but it was the best move for a franchise stuck between a rock and a hard place with a star player who wanted out.

I strongly believe the Clippers are on the right path to becoming a force in the western conference. Chris Paul is in the same class as Lebron James and Kevin Durant as transcendent players capable of changing N.B.A. franchise fortunes overnight. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan compose the kind of athletic frontcourt that could give the Nuggets’ energetic style a real challenge.

I wish Chauncey Billups the best in his N.B.A. future 63 out of 66 games in this lockout-shortened season — the exceptions being tonight and February 2nd and 22nd in Los Angeles.

Thank you Chauncey.

Featured Links:

Chauncey Billups belongs to Denver
Revisit Jeremy’s fantastic article on Chauncey Billups’ legacy in Colorado.

Billups and Pride
Our ESPN TrueHoop affiliate Clipperblog debates Chauncey’s future in the NBA

Hornets actively shopping Kaman
ESPN: Kaman is benched till the Hornets find a trade partner for him. Would the Nuggets be interested? I doubt it, Denver has no trade exceptions large enough to absorb Kaman’s $14mil expiring contract and would have to part with Miller, Harrington, or Birdman to make salaries work. The logistics of trading for him make Denver a longshot at best, and I doubt his declining athleticism and offensive game would be a good fit in Denver’s fast paced style of play.

Billups has reached out to Kenyon Martin
Chauncey is recruiting free agent Kenyon Martin to the Los Angeles Clippers. Martin is also being pursued by the Heat, Spurs, Knicks and Hawks. For anyone wondering, the chances Martin returns to Denver are virtually nil and I’d be surprised if either side is remotely interested in a reunion, but stranger things have happened.

The Hornets are definitely the tougher team to get a read on. One on hand they’re clearly transitioning into a rebuild, but considering the haul they landed for CP3 they are in no way bereft of capable talent. As the second slowest team in the league, their strength is a frontcourt rotation full of elite rebounders who can’t put the ball in the basket. That’s been the larger problem with the Hornets in the early going – they basically do everything you want a good team to do except score points.

I expect Denver to win this game with their superior depth and talent, but there could be some serious pitfalls in relying on a purely offensive gameplan. The Nuggets are jump shot happy when they aren’t fast-breaking teams to death, and the Hornets definitely have an ability to force a half-court game. The Nuggets want to force tempo and win the war in the paint, but they must constantly attack the Hornets’ bigs at the basket. Every jump shot that goes up likely means more rebounds and extra possessions for the Hornets, which is really their only shot at matching the Nuggets offensively.

The San Antonio game might be the biggest test of the young season, purely because of how well it’s going to test the Nuggets defense. Denver and San Antonio had the two best offenses in the league last year despite  having vastly different methods of delivering that efficiency. The Spurs won’t be running teams out of the gym, but their deadly spot up shooting is unmatched as is their ability to create high percentage looks anywhere on the floor. They are methodical in terms of shot selection whereas Nuggets prefer to create chaos. Even without Ginobili, I expect this to be a great game and a fabulous test of whether or not Denver’s league-leading defense is for real.

Obviously, the Nuggets’ depth is their greatest asset and that needs to shine for the team to be successful. I’ve been very impressed with the way this team has defended and forced their will on the more conventional, slower paced teams in the league. I still think winning on the road is the true test in terms of contending with a brand of basketball that can win in the playoffs. If the Nuggets can get the consistency they’ve shown in the last three games to travel, I strongly believe they’ll win these next two.

Featured Links

Denver Post: Gordon likely out, Nene likely in
Indications are Eric Gordon is going to miss tonight’s game for the Hornets and Nene will return after missing the last 2 games. Trevor Ariza also looks likely to miss the game for NOLA.

Hornets 24/7 – 3 on 3 Preview 
I joined the Hornets 24/7 crew to answer some questions about the game in New Orleans tonight

Dempsey: Al Harrington is a tower of power 
Chris Dempsey tells the story of Al Harrington’s early season comeback at the Denver Post. Great read.

ESPN: Buy or Sell – Early Season Surprises  
Several of our ESPN TrueHoop colleagues share thoughts on surprise teams including Denver, Minnesota and Portland

Oregonian: Raymond Felton calls Westbrook a selfish player
I missed this from a few days ago – Former Nuggets guard Raymond Felton calls out Russell Westbrook claiming that he is not a team player.

1. Much has been made of the departure from the triangle offense. Has there been a significant change in how the Lakers play on offense so far this year?

Absolutely. While the Lakers didn’t run the triangle exclusively while Phil Jackson coached the team, they certainly were in it a lot and as a result were among the least pick and roll heavy teams in the league. They ran it, but most came in the fourth quarter with Pau Gasol setting the screen and Kobe Bryant as the ball handler. Now, like most teams they run far more P’n’R sets, and involve the PG to a much greater extent. There are more designed calls and set plays. Still, you’ll recognize a lot of the action, from Pau Gasol operating out of the high post to Kobe running off ball from weak to strong, catching at the free throw line or along the wing.

The biggest adjustment hasn’t just come in trying to learn Mike Brown’s playbook, but in unlearning the triangle. It’s a very specific system with a specific way to read the floor, make cuts, and construct shot opportunities. For someone like Andrew Bynum, who has never played in another offense, the un-learning curve is steep. There are places he’s asked to go now as a center he never went before, which means new angles, new looks, and so on. Kobe, another guy who, for all practical purposes is a triangle lifer, talked early in camp about how guys still gravitate towards certain places on the floor, and that he’s made passes to spots expecting teammates to be there. And they would have, last December, but not now.

They’re a high I.Q bunch with versatile skill sets so it’s reasonable to believe the Lakers will pick things up relatively quickly. It won’t be easy, though.

2. Even with Kobe Bryant directing most offensive possessions, point guard play remains a question mark. How will the Lakers handle facing the better point guards of the league on a nightly basis?

I get in trouble for this line of thinking with our readers, but still steadfastly maintain the Lakers are hurt far more offensively by their point guards than on the other end. At the NBA level, defending the pick and roll is a team effort. Everyone has to be on the same page. When they are, things go well. When they’re not, they don’t. The Lakers have won titles with Derek Fisher at the point, and functionally he’s really no different as a defender now as he was three seasons ago (because he wasn’t very agile then, either). Outside of the pick and roll, no point guard can guard another one-on-one. Derrick Rose isn’t quick enough to guard Derrick Rose.

Meanwhile, the near complete lack of production from their PG’s over the last few seasons has been a real problem, not only because it puts big pressure on their stars to pick up the slack but because L.A.’s PG’s do almost nothing to offset what the opposition does from that spot.

The Lakers could obviously use an upgrade at the point guard spot, even if Steve Blake rebounds from a bad first season in L.A. (as I believe he will, and he’s done well in the early going). There’s no question about it. I just tend to think the weakness hurts them more offensively than defensively. A good scheme can protect lesser defenders, but in a conventional offense, the Lakers lack of firepower and explosiveness at the 1 will appear more acute.

3. Lamar Odom was a staple of the Lakers bench that routinely scorched the smaller Nuggets reserves. What’s the identity of the bench now and how will it create offense?

It’s hard to say, because the bench hasn’t really been the bench yet. With Bynum out, Josh McRoberts has started at power forward while Troy Murphy has played heavy minutes as a third big. With Bynum back, those guys both come off the bench, and how they’ll be deployed remains to be seen.

A few things do seem to be coming together. Metta World Peace (still getting used to that) has embraced his role as sixth man much in the same way Lamar Odom eventually did when Phil Jackson moved him to the bench. MWP enjoys the responsibility of leading the second unit, and Mike Brown has done whatever he can to empower him, designing plays to get Metta into the post and play a large role offensively. It’s a big chance from what he did with the starters, namely wait around for scraps.

An engaged World Peace is a more productive World Peace.

While the Lakers are definitely short a ball handlers and anyone who can create his own shot, in total the bench this season could have a lot more balance. While Odom is gone, Murphy and McRoberts represent a massive upgrade over Joe Smith and Theo Ratliff. Jason Kapono gives them a legitimate shooter along the arc. Murphy can step out, as well. The emergence of Devin Ebanks as a potential rotation player essentially amounts to an extra signing or trade acquisition, and with Matt Barnes around means the Lakers actually have some depth on the wing.

If Blake plays more like the guy the Lakers expected when they signed him (no world beater, but a far cry from the completely useless player he was last season), they’ll be that much better off.

4. Bynum’s intimated that he hasn’t been thrilled with his role in L.A. Can Mike Brown change this and help him overcome his inconsistency?

We’ll find out. For what it’s worth, Bynum says he wants to stay in L.A., denying whispers he’s looking to lead his own team (which would obviously necessitate a trade). At the same time, he also made it pretty clear at the end of last season he wants more. More responsibility, more of a role, just more. How he gets it is an open question, but there’s no question Brown wants to use the Bynum/Gasol combination extensively. Pau will likely cede a few shots, particularly if it means more of the offense is run through him as a facilitator.

The bigger question is whether or not Kobe would do the same on a regular basis. And as for Bynum’s consistency, it’s an issue of health more than anything. If he can stay in the lineup, Bynum will put up numbers.

5. Are the Lakers a championship contender as presently constituted?

Yes, but the margin for error is slim. A lot needs to go right. Bynum needs to stay healthy, as does Kobe (a tall order, since his wrist already looks like someone stuffed a balloon inside), World Peace has to perform as a sixth man, the backup bigs need to be the guys they’ve appeared to be in the first four games, Blake has to be better, Fisher can’t be a big liability, and so on.

The biggest reason to be confident is that the Lakers have been very strong defensively in the early going, save some real breakdowns against Sacramento. They held the Bulls in the low 30’s in the second half on Christmas Day, then did the same over four quarters to the Jazz and Knicks. While it may never be perfect, the offense should improve with time. There’s a lot of growth available there. But on the other end, the Lakers are already showing improved interest over last season, and haven’t played with their defensive anchor yet.

So if everything goes well, the Lakers really do have a chance. It’s just easier to see the downside than the upside.