Roundball Mining Company - Denver Nuggets Blog

Thrashing the Thunder, Melo vs Durant, Adding Bigs and Some Links

March 4, 2010
by Jeremy

What can we take from the Denver Nuggets 119-90 dismantling of the Oklahoma City Thunder? The Nuggets were certainly due for a breakout game and the Thunder apparently forgot to drink their energy drinks this morning. The Nuggets certainly rediscovered their ability to pass, score in the paint and run the floor. However, Oklahoma City did not put up much of a battle.

In an attempt to document the expected conflagration between Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant Royce Young from Daily Thunder and I were asked to carry on an email conversation for the Daily Dime. Unfortunately, for Royce, the game was a disappointment, but we still managed to compare and contrast Melo and KD. (In case you missed it David Thorpe provided his own in depth breakdown of how Melo and Durant match up earlier today.)

After the duel between the two superstars failed to materialize Nuggets fans were still treated to some good news. Chris Andersen looked healthy again. Just two days after moving around the floor in Phoenix like an octogenarian he was spry and bouncy. All the evidence I needed to see came when Andersen stepped away from his man to challenge Russell Westbrook as he approached the rim from the right baseline. When Birdman met Westbrook in the air the point guard dished off to Birdman’s man Nick Collison. Andersen landed, recovered and leapt in time to block Collison’s point blank shot before it started on its way down. It was an impressive play and hopefully a sign that Bird’s chronic patella tendinitis will not be a problem in the near future.

As far as all the regular things we fret over from game to game such as pick and roll defense, rotations and offensive tactics, with the lack of competition I do not think there is anything to draw any hard and fast conclusions.

I guess there is one other thing we can say and that is Kenyon stop shooting from outside the paint. Please, you are killing me. He bricked a three pointer so badly off the backboard that security had to put the ball out of its misery to ease its suffering.

With little to reflect on as far as game action instead of calling it a night we will turn our attention to a question from drewjay. Should Denver be preparing to welcome Mark Blount to the team?

With the Nuggets searching for big man depth the bought out player field never quite materialized. As much fun as it was to daydream about Zydrunas Ilgauskas coming to Denver to hit shots and be really tall, there was never any real chance of that happening. He has played his entire career in Cleveland. They kept him around early in his career when it appeared he would never be able to run from one end of the floor to the other without breaking his foot and this is the best Cavs team, perhaps ever. There was never any chance he would end up anywhere else.

I had hopes of Drew Gooden becoming available, but after conflicting reports as to whether or not the Clippers were going to buy him out we found out the Clippers wanted him to stay. It makes sense for the other LA team to try to win as many games as possible to appear as a better destination for free agents. Had Gooden not been shipped from the Wizards to LA he likely would have been bought out, but alas it was not meant to be.

So who is left? Umm…how about Mark Blount and Mikki Moore? Any takers?

Considering the way the Nuggets are spending money, or should I say not spending money, the only way they will bring in another player is if that player is significantly better than one, or both of the Nuggets spare bigs, namely Malik Allen and Johan Petro. It is clear that Karl does not trust either one. They only get significant playing time when someone in front of them is injured or during blowouts.

I cannot see Blount enticing the Nuggets at all and I cannot imagine a player who has been played 15 minutes over the past 13 months coming onboard and earning any more trust than Allen has. However, with Moore there is certainly smoke. As Chris Tomasson has reported Moore is recovering from surgery to remove a bone spur on his right heel and could be ready to play be mid March.

Moore is no spring chicken at the age of 34, but he has only played in 557 games and as long as he is healthy could provide an upgrade over Malik Allen. If Moore does come to Denver it will certainly not be to play 20 minutes a night, but as a fourth big who can run the floor, bring energy off the bench and most importantly give Renaldo Balkman a run for his money in the bad hair competition he is probably worth the gamble.

Heck according to the video below Moore is a deadly shooter, great finisher, has an excellent post game and is an all around dominate force (you have to watch it simply to see where on the backboard the ball hits the backboard as he banks a turnaround jumper at the 50 second mark).

If the Nuggets pass and decide not to sign anyone I am not going to lose a second of sleep. I would much prefer not signing anyone to signing Blount. However, signing Moore would be a cheap move with little downside.

Sticking with news from Tomasson he has reported that Carmelo received an IV this morning and that he was slightly dehydrated which could help explain some of his lackadaisical play. If Melo plays like he did tonight after getting some fluids, I say hook him up to an IV every morning.

John Hollinger explains why Chauncey Billups’ 43.9% shooting percentage is historically misleading.

One more link to pass along although it is a little outdated. Sebastian over at NBA Playbook breaks down a lob play the Nuggets ran at Golden State to help ice the game last Thursday.

Additional Game 61 Nugget

Arron Afflalo hurt his thumb and reported had it x-rayed following the game, but he claims via twitter that he is fine and will play Friday.

The Return of Game Stats

I finally updated my spreadsheet and the advanced stats on the right sidebar after only three quarters of the season have passed.

Pace Factor: 98.6

Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 – OKC produced a Nuggets opponent season low FG%, 32.5%, and EFG%, 37.3%.

Offensive Efficiency: 120.6 – 30 assists on 44 makes

Friday Night Links

January 29, 2010
by Jeremy

The Denver Nuggets have just tipped off in Oklahoma City without Carmelo Anthony and I have a couple of links to pass along for your enjoyment.

I will be on Sports Talk Soup tonight at 9:30 Mountain. Click here for details.

Congratulations to George Karl on being named the coach for the Western Conference All-Stars.

David Thorpe makes the case for Ty Lawson to be in the Rookie/Sophomore Challenge and Chauncey Billups and Nene also have an argument why they should be All-Stars.

A fun idea from Dan at Piston Powered. Would the Nuggets be interested in bringing in more Detroit Pistons? I say no, but it is an interesting discussion.

The Stephen Jackson Rumors Will Not Die

November 6, 2009
by Jeremy

I do not think I have said anything about the Nuggets rumored interest in Stephen Jackson. Well, it is a story that just will not die. Originally the Nuggets’ interest in Jackson made little sense to me, but when RMC reader BMer emailed me the link on TrueHoop where Marc Stein again emphasized the Nuggets have interest in Jackson I realized it was time to take the possibility that the Nuggets would trade for Jackson seriously.

It took me a while to try to come up with a reason why Denver would be interested in Jackson after all he really is a small forward and clearly Denver does not need a replacement there. Plus Jackson is a chucker who loves having the ball in his hands towards the end of games and has famously said the he “makes love to pressure.” Once again, late game marksmanship is not a big area of need for Denver.

After a few minutes of consternation it finally donned on me why the Nuggets are interested in Jackson, his defense. I completely understand if you are confused. Jackson is not known as a defensive stopper. However, he has a history of frustrating Dirk Nowitzki and his defense on Dirk was a major factor in the Warriors defeat of the Mavs in the first round in the spring of 2007.

Even then the Nuggets’ interest in Jackson was not entirely clear. The Nuggets are better than the Mavericks and you usually do not make moves to address a weakness against a team you can beat despite that weakness. I kept thinking and I think I figured it out. Jackson has not only spent time guarding Dirk, but he has experience in covering Kobe Bryant.

Could that be it? Are the Nuggets looking for a two way player they trust to throw out against Bryant? Jackson is not the number one Kobe stopper out there, I am not entirely sure there is a number one Kobe stopper. Still the way to cover Kobe is to pressure him with a player long enough to challenge his jumper and strong enough to keep Kobe from getting prime position on the block while pre-rotating help in case Kobe drives. Jackson fits the bill as good as anyone.

The question then becomes what would the Nuggets have to give up in order to acquire him? From the rumors I have read I have not seen any names appear, but I am sure a few have been bandied about behind closed doors. I would think the Warriors would be interested in Nene and if that is the going price, it is no wonder Jackson is not a Nugget. In order for the Nuggets to give up a big man, they would need one back. The only combination that makes any sense to me is to include Kenyon and Andris Biedrins. Biedrins might help with the Nuggets defensive rebounding problem, but Golden State is not going to trade two starters away for Kenyon and filler. The biggest problem is the Nuggets most tradeable assets are guards and that is the area where the Warriors are the deepest.

The only deal that makes sense to me is if J.R. Smith is sent to a third team who sends a player to Golden State and Denver ends up landing Jackson (something like J.R. to Miami, Udonis Haslem and another player or pick to Golden State and Jackson to Denver). The only place for Jackson to get minutes in Denver would be shooting guard. As mentioned above Denver has a small forward and Jackson or Melo can play power forward from time to time, but Denver has a defensive rebounding problem as it is and that would only exacerbate it. I doubt J.R. would take kindly to Jackson coming in and playing at least half the game at shooting guard and Smith is the best combination of talent and contract the Nuggets have available.

Even if trading J.R. is on the table a three way trade would be very difficult to consummate. In the example above Miami is a very unlikely trade partner as they are making a point of preserving as much money for next summer as possible with dreams of teaming Wade with Chris Bosh or another high level big man. Maybe a team like Minnesota is interested and San Antonio showed interest in J.R. two summers ago when he was a restricted free agent. Then you have to worry about having J.R. haunt Denver for either a division rival or a fellow contender.

Ultimately, I do not see any realistic way Stephen Jackson ends up in Denver, but do not rule anything out.

Sometimes two minutes is not enough

There was another post on TrueHoop today by Chris Broussard that told an interesting story about the sale of their second round draft pick (number 34) last June. Apparently Cleveland had made an offer of $2 million to move up and draft DeJuan Blair. However, the Rockets came in with their record offer of $2.25 million. As you may know you only have two minutes to make your trade or selection in the second round and time ran out before Denver could go back to Cleveland to see if they would up their original offer. As good as I think Blair could be, I wonder if that extra $250,000 is worth having him end up in the Western Conference.

Nevertheless, it is interesting to see a little picture of what goes on behind the scenes on draft night and what a little bit of what could have been.

Movin’ on up

I missed this article by Chris Tomasson last week, but apparently it did not take very long for George Karl to stop thinking of Ty Lawson as just a rookie. Karl also bristles at the claim he does not play rookies who deserve playing time.

Karl on coaching

Mike Torico interviewed George Karl as well as Pat Rilley and Hubie Brown. Karl talks about the changes in coaching over the past decade or two and it is an interesting discussion. Karl tells a story about how Dean Smith told him he had to be able to take the blame for every loss and if he could not handle it, he should not be a coach. I do not think Karl has always been the first to take the blame over his coaching career.

And you want to be here because?

I was very surprised to hear that Renaldo Balkman had signed an extension with the Nuggets last week. I guess I should never be that surprised when a player agrees to be paid, in Balkman’s case he is receiving north of $5 million for three years, but I would think Balkman would be looking for the answer to the same question many fans are. Why doesn’t he play? Players like Balkman who play hard and do not demand a certain amount of shots to give an effort are typically held in high regard and I doubt he would have a difficult time finding a good team who would want him on board.

I do not think anyone who knows me would call me a prima donna or high maintenance, but if I thought I should be on the court, and I was not seeing playing time, I would look to play somewhere else whether I was offered a contract extension or not.

Then again, maybe the experience of playing for the circus that was the New York Knicks convinced him that as long as you can be on the roster of a good team with little drama, you do it. Balkman has never complained about playing time to the media and has claimed that he wants to play, but will do what the coach wants.

The Nuggets’ stance that he is a player who can still be developed is interesting and I agree he can get better, but the guy can play now. Let him.

In Game Tactics

I was just watching the end of the Cleveland Cavaliers/Chicago Bulls game and Cleveland may have lost, but LeBron James did something that caught my eye. A play after Derrick Rose had scored off a pick by Brad Miller LeBron told Anderson Varejao to switch from Brad Miller to Luol Deng. At first I was confused, which is my natural state, but then realized that James took Miller so that when Miller set the screen for Rose he could switch onto Rose. The plan worked and LeBron forced Rose to pass and then he even grabbed the rebound on the missed shot, raced up the floor and made an unselfish cross court pass to Mo Williams for an open three that would have put the Cavs ahead. Williams missed the shot and the Cavs lost, but I was impressed with how LeBron manipulated the Bulls into a situation where Cleveland had the advantage. He knew Rose was looking to score and wanted to take the best option away from Chicago.

The next step in Rose’s development is to recognize that and send Miller away so there is no chance to switch on the screen. Then if LeBron comes off of Miller to double it will leave one of the best shooting big men in the league open for a jumper.

NBA Chat on the Daily Dime

October 29, 2009
by Jeremy

I will be taking part in the mass NBA chat on the newly redesigned ESPN.com Daily Dime tonight featuring a handful of TrueHoop Network bloggers and a few members of the ESPN.com NBA writing staff as well. Check out the chat and send in your questions and comments.

Upcoming Chat and Other Denver Nuggets Links

October 15, 2009
by Jeremy

There is quite a bit of writing I need to do before the regular season starts, but for now, just a few links.

Big Time Nuggets Chat

The big announcement is that I will be participating in a Denver Nuggets chat tomorrow along with John Hollinger on ESPN.com. Things kick off at 12:00 noon on Friday, but you can check in a few minutes early to start pumping in questions. Out of all the ESPN analysts we are very lucky to have Professor Hollinger involved. As I have said before, he is the most knowledgeable member of the national media when it comes to the Nuggets.

Melo and Kevin Durant

There has been some interesting discussion on TrueHoop regarding how incredible Kevin Durant is, yet how terrible his plus/minus numbers are. The post points out how he was number 20 in the league in PER in 2008-09 and has scored the fifth most points of any player at his age. He is clearly an incredible talent, so how come he has such a terrible plus/minus and his teammates post better plus/minus ratings when they play without him?

Apparently there is a player who started very similarly to Durant, but has improved drastically over the years. None other than Carmelo Anthony. Timothy Varner has the low down over at the exceptional San Antonio Spurs blog 48 Minutes of Hell.

Melo on E:60

Carmelo will be interviewed on ESPN’s award winning primetime newsmagazine E:60. Here is a little snippet to wet your appetite.

The episode will air at 5:00 PM Mountain on Tuesday, October 20.

A Couple of Nuggets Previews

Nate from Denver Stiffs and I answered some questions about the Nuggets from Mark Rawden from the Boston Celtics Examiner. If that is not enough you can click here for a Nuggets preview on Hoopsvine.

Win Nuggets Season Tickets

Bird Busey

Finally the blog Protect the Paint sees some similarities between Chris “Birdman” Andersen and Gary Busey.

Predicting the 2008-09 Season - The Records

October 6, 2009
by Jeremy

Here is the second installment of a four part series looking back at my many predictions from the past year (click here if you missed part one). Today we analyze my projected records and predictions for all 32 teams.

Prediction: Boston Celtics 62-20, 1st in the Atlantic Division, 1stin the Eastern Conference.

Verdict: Correct, correct and incorrect, Boston did finish 62-20 good for first in the Atlantic, but they were second to Cleveland.

Prediction: The Celtics are under pressure to win again in a city that is not used to experiencing one hit wonders and they should be up to the task.

Verdict: incorrect, KG got hurt and they were bounced in the conference semifinals.

Prediction: Cleveland Cavs 55-27, 1stin Central Division, 2ndin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct, incorrect, Cleveland won 66 games and were first in the division and conference.

Prediction: I expect the Cavs to finally enter the regular season elite in the east. Where it takes them after that is anyone’s guess, but I am betting the final destination is another game seven on the road in Boston.

Verdict: Incorrect, Boston was the team that failed to make it to the rematch, but the Cavs could not get passed game 6 in Orlando.

Prediction: Detroit Pistons 55-27, 2ndin the Central Division, 3rdin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect, incorrect, not even close although Chauncey would have made a difference.

Prediction: I think their run of Eastern Conference Finals appearances stops this year and Joe D. wields the wrecking ball next summer.

Verdict: Correct and correct, Dumars started dismantling the Pistons last November and Pistons fans will not recognize the squad playing at the Palace this season.

Prediction: Orlando Magic 53-29, 1stin the Southeast Division, 4thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct, incorrect.

Prediction: Orlando should benefit from another boost in production from Dwight Howard and look for Rashard Lewis near his career high average of 22.4 points per game from his final season in Seattle. Orlando will be a team to be reckoned with.

Verdict: Correct, although Lewis did not get close to even the 20 point per game mark. 7-17

Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers 49-33, 2ndin the Atlantic Division, 5thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct, almost, but incorrect, they were sixth not fifth.

Prediction: A slow start may keep the Sixers from hitting 50 wins, but the team that gave the Pistons fits in the first round last season will be another tough out.

Verdict: Correct, they did give the Magic a tough series.

Prediction: Toronto Raptors 46-36 3rdin the Atlantic Division, 6thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Way incorrect, way incorrect and way incorrect.

Prediction: Jermaine O’Neal is coming off another injury plagued season as the Pacers franchise player. If he can approach the player he was in Indy, the Raptors can finish much higher than sixth.

Verdict: Incorrect, maybe in some fantasy world O’Neal can play like he did in Indiana, but he was a disaster and ended up in Miami.

Prediction: Washington Wizards 40-42, 2ndin the Southeast Division, 7thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Um…no, no and no. I suspected Arenas would play at least half the season and no Arenas really hurt the Wiz.

Prediction: After signing a six year, $111 million contract Agent Hibachi must establish that he can actually play again in order to avoid an Allen Houston like disaster in D.C.

Verdict: Correct, but it sounds like he will be back and lighting things up this season.

Prediction: Miami Heat 40-42, 3rdin the Southeast Division, 8thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, although I only missed their record by three games.

Prediction: I think these guys sneak into the playoffs.

Verdict: Correct, although their 43 wins were somehow good enough for fifth in the east.

Prediction: Atlanta Hawks 38-44, 4thin the Southeast Division, 9thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, Atlanta’s 47 wins put them fourth in the east.

Prediction: They are going to miss Childress who could fill any role ranging from point guard to shooting guard to small forward. A team who barely snuck into the playoffs will get a better season from Al Horford, but it will not be enough to get them back into the postseason.

Verdict: Incorrect, they did not seem to miss Childress as they received a fine performance from Flip Murray.

Prediction: Chicago Bulls 37-45, 3rdin the Central Division, 10thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, the Bulls played .500 ball and made the playoffs.

Prediction: If they can get some production from players like Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng, they could sneak in the playoffs.

Verdict: Incorrect, Noah was good, but Hinrich and Deng struggled with injuries and inconsistent play. Derrick Rose was tremendous though and a midseason trade with Sacramento helped the Bulls put a major scare into the Celtics.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers 36-56 4thin the Central Division, 11thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Correct, correct and incorrect, the Pacers were ninth, not eleventh.

Prediction: The Pacers have some nice young pieces, but are caught in limbo this season. They will not be horrible, but they will not be good either.

Verdict: Correct, Indiana does seem to be caught in the netherworld of not good enough to contend, but not bad enough to land a high draft pick.

Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats 34-58, 5thin the Southeast Division, 12thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, I missed their win total by one and they were tenth in the east.

Prediction: If anyone thought Larry Brown mailed in the Knicks job when he was working in the largest media market in the NBA, how much worse will he do in Charlotte when no one is paying attention?

Verdict: Incorrect, Brown seemed to care for the entire season. Good for him.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks 32-50, 5thin the Central Division, 13thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct, incorrect, I missed the win total by two and they were twelfth.

Prediction: If they will elevate Ramon Sessions to the starting point guard I believe they can try to play some exciting offensive basketball.

Verdict: Correct, not much of a prediction, but Sessions is fun to watch.

Prediction: New Jersey Nets 29-53, 4thin the Atlantic Division, 14thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect. Their 34 wins were good for third in the division and a tie for tenth.

Prediction: Things could get pretty ugly over the next couple of seasons in the swamps of New Jersey.

Verdict: Correct, things are so bad they are pumping up how well Yi Jianlian played in the 2009 FIBA Asia Championship tournament. Oh yea, and they are about to be the first team owned by someone who might have “voted” for Leonid Brezhnev.

Prediction: New York Knickerbockers 25-57, 5thin the Atlantic Division, 15thin the Eastern Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct, incorrect. The Knicks did win 32 games, but were last in the Atlantic and only the Wizards were worse in the east.

Prediction: This is not just a round peg, square hole scenario. This is a round elephant square thimble scenario.

Verdict: Correct, OK so that was not really a prediction, but I need to put another tick in the correct column. 19-71

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers 59-23 1stin the Pacific Division, 1stin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct, correct, the Lakers ruled the west and did so with 65 wins.

Prediction: The Lakers may not win the NBA championship, but this team can handle injuries, they have a plethora of scoring options in the clutch and a pair of big men who can rebound and score in the paint.

Verdict: Correct, the Lakers did win the championship largely thanks to their front line and clutch shooting.

Prediction: New Orleans Hornets 58-24 1stin the Southwest Division, 2ndin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, the Hornets were the team I misread the most.

Prediction: If Chris Paul can somehow continue to improve (can you imagine he is still only 23!) the sky is the limit for this team.

Verdict: Incorrect, Paul did improve again, but the team definitely did not.

Prediction: Utah Jazz 58-24 1stin the Northwest Division, 3rd in the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect I guess I missed on the Jazz and Hornets equally as bad.

Prediction: Lord knows I hate the Jazz, but they are freakin’ good.

Verdict: Incorrect, the Jazz freakin’ suck! Whoo-hoo!

Prediction: Houston Rockets 56-26 2nd in the Southwest Division, 4thin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct and incorrect and the Rockets were just a game out of fourth.

Prediction: Once again I think the Rockets have a great regular season and then flame out in the playoffs.

Verdict: Incorrect, I do not think you can call taking the eventual champs to a seventh game flaming out.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs 53-29 3rdin the Southwest Division, 5thin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, although I only missed their record by one game they won the Southwest and were the third seed.

Prediction: No one has ever become successful by writing off the Spurs, but I am having a difficult time seeing these guys put another finals run together. Parker improves every season, but Duncan is slipping ever so slightly and you have to wonder if Manu can keep bouncing back after so many injuries.

Verdict: Correct! Maybe the Spurs are not dead, but a first round exit is definitely not the same as a run at the finals.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns 50-32 2ndin the Pacific Division, 6thin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct and incorrect, the Suns did finish second in the Pacific, but only won 46 games and missed the playoffs.

Prediction: Phoenix is certainly on their way downhill and the Shaq trade has limited their future flexibility to rebuild around Amare. I think these guys have at least one more playoff season in them before Nash collapses into a puddle of goo.

Verdict: Incorrect, no playoffs for the Suns, but Nash may collapse into a puddle of goo by the end of the season.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets 47-35 2ndin the Northwest Division, 7thin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, even someone as attuned to the Nuggets as I am could not have predicted what happened last season.

Prediction: They can be better without Marcus Camby. They do not have to turn into the Boston Celtics on defense, but if they can just pay attention, be in the right places and make the correct rotations it will make a big difference. With several players on the floor at the same time who can score the Nuggets can vastly improve their offensive efficiency by simply passing the ball around a couple more times per possession. I believe that I will not believe they can do any of these things until I actually see it. I believe they can still make the playoffs even if they do not do all those other things.

Verdict: Those are a lot of corrects, I am going to say five corrects in that paragraph. 30-103

Prediction: Portland Trailblazers 46-36 3rdin the Northwest Division, 8th in the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, I was pretty wrong about the Blazers too. It is not easy to jump from a .500 team to a 50+ win team, but they did it.

Prediction: I think Portland make the playoffs more due to a collapse by the Mavericks than an amazing season by the Blazers.

Verdict: Incorrect, the Blazers had an amazing season, regular season that is.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks 45-37 4thin the Southwest Division, 9thin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect. I misjudged the Mavs, they won 50 games and made it to the second round of the playoffs where they were pummeled by the Denver Nuggets.

Prediction: I believe we will see one of the traditional western powers fall into the lottery this season. The Mavs seem to be the most likely culprit.

Verdict: Correct and incorrect. One of the traditional powers did fall, but it was the Suns.

Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers 36-46 3rdin the Pacific Division, 10thin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, the Clippers were bad enough to land the top pick in the draft.

Prediction: I do think the Clippers have a decent team, but not own good enough to be a playoff team in the west.

Verdict: Correct, hey, they weren’t a playoff team.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors 34-48 4thin the Pacific Division, 11thin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, incorrect and incorrect, even though they lost five more games than I expected they finished third in the Pacific and tenth in the west.

Prediction: Golden State is going to miss trying to play Nellie Ball without Baron Davis.

Verdict: Correct, hey, I will take whatever I can get. I will say Stephen Jackson did a great job trying to carry the torch though.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves 34-48 4thin the Northwest Division, 12thin the Western Conference.

Verdict: Incorrect, correct and incorrect. They lost ten more games, but finished eleventh, go figure.

Prediction: The Wolves are much improved with a core of Foye, Love, Jefferson and Mike Miller.

Verdict: Correct, the Wolves did appear to be improving until Jefferson went down in February.

Prediction: Sacramento Kings 32-50 5thin the Pacific Division, 13thin the Western Conference

Verdict: Double incorrect, correct and incorrect. The Kings won almost half as many games as I expected.

Prediction: If the players on their roster do not improve significantly over the next few seasons they will be mediocre for years to come.

Verdict: Incorrect, if they players on their roster do not improve significantly over the next few seasons they will be terrible.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 25-57 5thin the Northwest Division, 14th in the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct and incorrect, two fewer losses and thirteenth instead of fourteenth.

Prediction: Jeff Green – Green was supposed to be the Pippen to Kevin Durant’s Jordan. So far he has been more Brad Sellers than Scotty Pippen.

Verdict: OK, so that was not a prediction, but Green was much better last year than in his rookie campaign.

Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies 22-60 5thin the Southwest Division, 15thin the Western Conference

Verdict: Incorrect, correct and incorrect, I only missed their win total by two, but they still managed to surpass the Thunder, Kings and Clippers.

Prediction: Of course, they are going to take some more lumps this season, but at least they have some players to show for it, unlike Charlotte.

Verdict: OK, another non prediction, but if I would have left this area blank you would have wondered why and it would have bothered you the rest of the day and I would never do that to you.

I expected to have a very low success rate as it is not easy to predict an exact record for every team over an 82 game schedule. I nailed a couple and came close on several others so despite my low percentage I think I did reasonably well. The final tally is 38-134 a 28.4% accuracy rate. Combined with my 52.2% rate from part one and I am averaging 40.3% with two much easier, and more entertaining, segments left.

Denver Nuggets - Real Training Camp

September 30, 2009
by Jeremy

The Denver Nuggets are a staple on the annual series Real Training Camp on NBATV and they already made their appearance for 2009 today.

I love watching the footage, but before I get into what I saw I have to lambaste NBATV for the production. Nuggets fans get to watch a practice once a year. What we do not want to watch during the two hours of televised practice is two guys talking into the camera when there is a five on five drill going on directly behind them. We do not need to see shots of a player leaning against a wall while the team is working on defense. We do need to see as much actual footage of what is going on as possible.

Every year I get excited for real training camp and every year I am left to stew as I miss action on the court that I desperately want to be viewing. Please NBATV, quit broadcasting from a practice without showing us the practice. I promise I will still listen to what Rick Kamela and Bill Hanzlik are saying even if you show the action on the floor.

OK, I got that off my chest, now on to the actual practice. We can finally stop speculating and provide some commentary on real life footage of the Nuggets on the court.

For the third or fourth straight year we heard George Karl give his speech about not holding the ball. This time he added in that there are a couple of guys who he allows to hold the ball, but singled out Renaldo Balkman and new guys Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo and Joey Graham as players who he does not want to see catch the ball and hold it.
Afflalo looked good. He ran out and scored fast break baskets on a couple of occasions and displayed his baseline jumper that he has become very adept at. He looks like he has added a little bulk as well.
J.R. Smith is traditionally a slow starter, and in past Real Training Camps he has not had good shooting performances. Today he was on fire. In fact, I do not remember seeing him miss a shot. J.R. will be out the first seven games of the season, but hopefully when he comes back for game eight he will be shooting like he did today.
Ty Lawson looks very good. He is always very comfortable playing basketball and the fact that he is in his first training camp in the NBA did not faze him whatsoever. The best exchange involving Lawson was during some half court offensive work Lawson caught a swing pass and nailed a three from the left wing. George Karl immediately told the “Rook” that when he has a wide open lane to the rim to pass on the three and go “make a basketball play.” Lawson took the advice in stride, but we will see what the undersized guard who had a problem with getting his shot blocked in summer league does in similar situations during games. I am guessing that the open three looks pretty good to a six foot guard.
There remain some disturbing fashion trends on the Nuggets practice court as Carmelo Anthony still likes the dumbo look with the pocket linings hanging out of the pockets of his pants and Kenyon is still partial to the southern girl washing her car look with his practice jersey cinched tight around his chest.
I was impressed with how well Malik Allen was moving, but he once again displayed his lack of a post game as he shot turnaround jumpers over guards on two separate occasions on the block and was unable to back Melo down on another.
There was little to see in the battle between James White and Joey Graham. White nailed an open three off a kick out pass and Graham scored on a breakaway dunk. I will have to go back and watch the drills closer, but neither player really stood out. Graham did play a couple of uneventful minutes at power forward during one full court drill. He probably has the strength to play in the paint, but does not have the length to pull it off for prolonged stretches.
Keith Brumbaugh was mostly a spectator during the five on five full court work. He did make a tough running floater in the half court drills, but during the full court segment only managed to stand out for taking a bad shot on the baseline and for a couple of awkward moments dribbling the ball. He is definitely long and did spend his time playing small forward.
The most disturbing scene of the practice was the Nuggets working on switching screens. A lot. Melo, who was wearing a wire, said that he was going to switch every screen no matter who it was he was switching with. Those of you who are longtime readers know of my disdain of switching screens and I was hoping to see more hedging and trapping on pick and rolls.
The players were working hard, but there was a lot of levity on display. I saw more smiles today than when I saw Observe and Report. This team is clearly comfortable and confident, but we will not know how mentally prepared they are to meet the challenges of the season until the regular season tips off.
I am hopeful that Chris Andersen has improved his jumper to the point where I am comfortable with him taking it when left open. I only saw one jumper from Birdman and the result was not one that inspired confidence.
Kenyon did not appear to be any better at shooting 20 footers either.

Look for some intriguing video from the practice to show up here sometime over the next couple of days.

Predicting the 2008-09 Season - How Did I Do?

September 29, 2009
by Jeremy

Before we begin the season previews and start looking forward to next season, I am going to look back at last season. I made a multitude of predictions over the previous 12 plus months and I started wondering how accurate I was. Did I successfully predict how well Chris Andersen played? What about the Nuggets acquisition of Chauncey Billups or how many games the Milwaukee Bucks would win?

The only way to know if I knew what I was talking about is to go back through thousands and thousands of words and pluck out all the things I said would happen no matter how hair brained or how mundane and assign a verdict.

Here is the first of four posts full of things I thought would happen. We will start by looking at my general preseason projections and game by game forecasts. Tomorrow we will look at my projected season records for all 30 teams. We will then move on to my projected personnel moves and then finish with my projections for player performances.

Prediction: I believe the Denver Nuggets must alter their style of play if they are ever to become a true championship contender. I love the Denver Mile High Mystique as much as anyone, but I strongly believe the Nuggets must evaluate the overall philosophy of their franchise.

Verdict: I am going to say correct. The Nuggets still ran, which is fine, but they dropped from their perennial spot of first or second in pace down to fifth, it may not sound like much, but they were closer to the eleventh fastest paced team, Milwaukee, than they were to the second fastest paced team, New York. The greater focus on defense and working for better shots on offense was a great recipe.

Prediction: I might be completely wrong, but if we are ever going to see the best of the Nuggets and the best of George Karl, it has to be this season.

Verdict: Correct, the embarrassing sweep at the hand of the Lakers in 2008 shook the players and forced them to deal with how far away they were from contending. That led them to push themselves to great things last season.

Prediction: The [Western Conference] number eight seed will make the playoffs with 44 to 46 wins next season.

Verdict: Incorrect, Utah was the eighth seed with 48 wins.

Prediction: The lower class [of the Western Conference] will be better. Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Sacramento will fall into the categories of improved to much improved. The Clippers may have lost Elton Brand, but they played most of last season without him anyway and the additions of Baron Davis and Marcus Camby (although I have a difficult time buying them as a playoff contender) will clearly make them more competitive.

Verdict: Incorrect, all three combined to win only one more game than the Lakers, 66 to 65. However, the Wolves were 10-4 in January only to have Al Jefferson suffered a season ending injury in early February and the Thunder were a very improved team going 18-27 from January 10 through the end of the season. The Clippers were simply abysmal, but at least I did not pick them to make the playoffs like many others did.

Prediction: Out of the teams that finished outside the playoffs looking in last season the only team that I believe needs to be taken seriously is Portland.

Verdict: Correct, Portland was the only non playoff team from 2007-08 to win more than 30 games in the west.

Prediction: Some believe Golden State can compete for a playoff spot, but I do not see it.

Verdict: Correct, Golden State finished 19 games out of the playoffs. I need to keep making predictions against nebulous conglomerates such as “some.”

Prediction: I believe the Nuggets and Blazers will make the postseason.

Verdict: Correct, both did.

Prediction: This season is the year that they [Denver] will be better off having a representative in Secaucus, NJ instead of having their representatives massacred at the hands of the Lakers or Hornets in the first round.

Verdict: Wildly incorrect, but had they not made the Billups trade, I think that prediction would have been the truth. I was wrong about the Hornets too.

Prediction: If you are looking for a team to fall apart this season how about the Clippers? They have a point guard who is famous for his horrid shot selection paired with a control freak head coach. They lost their best player in what might have been a far more incompetent negotiating process by the front office than anything the Nuggets have been guilty of and God’s Gift to Defense Marcus Camby is not going to play a single game in the preseason due to a heel injury. Oh yea, and do not forget that Chris Kaman is coming off of a season where he played only 56 games plus he put some extra wear and tear on his body by playing for Germany in the Olympics.

Verdict: Correct, they were without a doubt the biggest disappointment in the West other than perhaps the Suns. By the way, that was in response to ESPN.com’s NBA writers naming the Nuggets the most likely team to self combust.

Prediction: [After game 23] they [the Nuggets] face three straight back to back sets against some very good teams which will tell us a lot about how good this team can really be.

Verdict: Incorrect, Denver was only 2-4 in those six games (at Dallas, at Houston, Cleveland, at Phoenix, Portland and at Portland), but the season turned out OK. Of course, I could go the other way and say they only went 2-4 and that showed us they were not going to be NBA champs.

Prediction: The Nuggets have already clinched a tie with the Mavs for the season series, but I believe they will certainly win at least one of the two games left to clinch the tiebreaker in case it should come into play.

Verdict: Correct, the Nuggets swept the Mavs in the regular season.

Prediction: I do not like their chances against the Spurs or the Hornets (especially now that Tyson Chandler is back in the Big Easy) and I would not be very confident should the Nuggets face off against the Jazz [02/20/09].

Verdict: Incorrect, in defense of my lack of faith, this was following a blowout loss against the Bulls and Tyson Chandler was healthy and looking strong and Manu Ginobili had not yet been injured.

Prediction: A big thanks to Detroit and Boston for blowing games against the Spurs and Jazz tonight. Way to go bozos. I will forgive the Celtics as long as they lose to the Nuggets next Monday.

Verdict: Incorrect, Boston beat the Nuggets, but I actually found it in my heart to forgive them, but I am not going to count it one against myself.

Prediction: With the talent on this team and with the schedule providing them with a plethora of winnable games I feel very good guaranteeing that the Nuggets will make the playoffs [03/10/09].

Verdict: Correct.

Prediction: With the stink bomb the Nuggets dropped on us the past couple of weeks they have almost completely destroyed any chance of earning home court advantage in the playoffs. I have a difficult time envisioning a scenario where they catch the Spurs, Jazz or Hornets. Plus with the loss last night they have lost the season series to the Rockets making it even more difficult to surpass them in the standings. In order to earn home court advantage the Nuggets would have to overtake two of those four teams. At this point almost any best case scenario we can construct leaves the Nuggets playing either the Spurs, Jazz or Hornets in the first round. Because of that I am afraid there is little hope of Denver reaching the second round [also 03/10/09].

Verdict: Absolutely 100% incorrect. Out of all the incorrect predictions I made, this is the one that bugs me the most. I wrote it following the Nuggets two point home loss to the Rockets that was their fifth loss in six games. Of course they went on to win 13 of 14 to push themselves into second in the conference. I hate that I wrote it, but thank God I did because it clearly turned the Nuggets season around. Honestly, I try my best to not get caught up in the emotion of a season, but I also have to write what I believe. If I end up with egg on my face, well, when life gives you eggs, break them and drink them like Rocky (Balboa, not the mountain lion or the squirrel).

Prediction: The Nuggets will beat the Hornets in seven games because Chris Paul will not lose game 6 at home.

Verdict: Incorrect, although I still do not think Paul would have let the series end in New Orleans.

Prediction: Should the Nuggets win [Game 4 versus New Orleans], I think they win game five to close out the series.

Verdict: Correct…

Prediction: Logic tells me tonight [Game 5 versus New Orleans] will be nothing short of a formality.

Verdict: Correct, Denver rolled over the Hornets by 19.

Prediction: David West will not make another All-Star team.

Verdict: It may be presumptuous of me, but I am going to call this one correct.

Prediction: The Denver Nuggets will beat the Dallas Mavericks in six games.

Verdict: Incorrect, the Nuggets won in five, but they did win.

Prediction: I expect the Nuggets to close this series out [versus Dallas] just as they did against New Orleans and six hours from now we will be celebrating the Nuggets’ first appearance in the conference finals since 1985.

Verdict: Correct, the Nuggets did indeed close out the Mavs in five games, although it was a little closer than game 5 against the Hornets.

Prediction: My official prediction is the Lakers in seven games.

Verdict: Incorrect, partly due to the Nuggets late game ineptness the Lakers won in six.

Prediction: I do believe the Nuggets will win [game 2 versus the Lakers].

Verdict: Correct, despite literally throwing game one away, Denver won game two.

Prediction: As you would expect I think the Nuggets will win [game 6 versus the Lakers] tonight.

Verdict: Um…really incorrect. The Lakers rolled the Nuggets in game 6 at the Pepsi Center.

The final tally for the first section of projections is 12 out of 23 were correct, good for a rate of 52.2%. Not bad, but not great either. Part two coming tomorrow.

Welcome to the New Roundball Mining Company

September 29, 2009
by Jeremy

Welcome to the new Roundball Mining Company! A true powerhouse team like the Nuggets deserve better than my sad little attempt at creating a nice looking blog so I am proud to present the new look to you. Thanks to Spencer Hall from Salt City Hoops for creating the design. I am not sure why a Jazz fan would help out a Nuggets fan like this, but if the site crashes during the game between the two teams on Thursday, I think we will have our answer.

I would like to offer a big thank you to Spencer and I hope you all enjoy the new look.

Mid September Hodge Podge

September 20, 2009
by Jeremy

It has been a while since I have posted anything and I apologize. I guess the good news is I really have not missed anything. Still, there has not been a word on this blog about J.R. Smith slated to miss the first seven games of the season, former Nugget Allen Iverson signing with the Memphis Grizzlies, the potential referee lockout, heck, I never even finished my player by player recap of the 2008-09 season.

I have made it through another hectic week of work, pieced together two potentially dominant fantasy football teams and I finally have some time to discuss the Nuggets.

Where’s Wally?

Nuggets fans received some good news yesterday as it was announced Desmond Mason had agreed to sign with the Sacramento Kings (read about it at Cowbell Kingdom). The bad news for Nuggets fans is that it reduces their leverage with Wally Szczerbiak.

However, there are still several names on the list as the Nuggets have been linked with Rashard McCants, Flip Murray and now Keith Bogans, but I still think Wally is the guy who will end up in powder blue next season. With Chanucey Billups, J.R. Smith, Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo and Anthony Carter I do not see how McCants or Murray help this team. Chris Tomasson has an excellent article on Fanhouse outlining how J.R. Smith’s suspension (discussed below) is playing a role in who the Nuggets bring in to fill the 13th roster spot.

If the front office signs a player simply because the Nuggets will be short handed for the first seven games of the season, I think it is an overreaction. However, Tomasson reports that Denver offered Murray a minimum deal already. Murray is a nice player and I have no problem with Bogans either. Murray can score and Bogans is a very good defender, but what do you do with them once J.R. returns? Over the long haul Denver will be better off with a player like Szczerbiak who can really help for all 82 games than someone who will only provide a significant boost for seven.

Getting back to Wally, should Szczerbiak end up in Denver both he and the Nuggets are playing things cool. With the Nuggets’ commitment to saving every possible penny they are not about to toss Wally, or anyone else, a salary figure higher than they are willing to pay just to seal the deal. The Nuggets remain the best match for playing time and competitiveness. The only team who could I could see offering anything better than Denver would be the Lakers who have a couple of open roster spots and might not be planning on giving their spare minutes at small forward to Adam Morrison, plus it was announced today they will bring in.

I do believe Wally would be a very good fit in Denver, but if he ends up signing elsewhere, it is not the end of the world. It would actually clear up some playing time at small forward for Renaldo Balkman. I believe Balkman is at his best playing small forward as he struggles to defend many power forwards due to his slight stature.

Denver can also go small with J.R. or Afflalo sliding over to the three. Backing up Carmelo Anthony only assures you about 12 or 13 minutes of floor time anyway.

If the Nuggets sign Murray and Szczerbiak then I will be ecstatic, but they are serious about minimizing their tax payment and carrying more than 13 guaranteed contracts into the season is unlikely.

Training camp starts in less than a week and Denver has to sign someone. This cannot drag out much longer. Denver has options and the race may come down to which player will agree to play in Denver for the minimum.

The Least Popular Number 7 in Denver

For the third season in a row the Nuggets will be short a player to start the season due to suspension. J.R. will miss the first seven games of the 2009-10 season because of the reckless driving incident that resulted in the death of his friend and passenger Andre Bell. Smith was suspended by the Nuggets for three games to start the 2007-08 season because of the accident and last season Carmelo Anthony missed the first two games as punishment for his drunk driving arrest near the end of the 2007-08 season.

My initial reaction when I heard J.R. had been suspended for seven games was that it was far too severe. With the Nuggets likely locked in a tight battle for playoff position again those seven games could be very hurtful. Three of those seven games are back to back sets and the Nuggets will need all the fresh pairs of legs they can afford, even early in the season.

After reflecting on the situation I cannot argue that seven games is too severe. In fact, it is possible J.R. got off easy. I do not mean to keep dwelling on this, but a person lost his life because of J.R.’s actions. How can you say any amount of games is too steep a penalty?

I realize it is not the NBA’s job to punish J.R., after all he spent 24 days in jail isn’t that enough? On the other hand, who among us would still have a job, let alone a multimillion dollar paycheck waiting for us after incarceration?

Seven games is significant suspension, but is it excessive? I do not think so.

A Grizzly Outcome

I wrote a little last year about how interesting Allen Iverson’s free agency would be. I could not imagine him playing for a non contending team, but I could not imagine a contending team being interested in him.

Now he is a member of the Memphis Grizzlies.

What?

I think I am a pretty astute observer of the NBA, but the Grizzlies would not have been a team I would have pictured AI playing for and honestly with players like O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph all wanting the ball, especially Randolph he really wants the ball, I have a difficult time envisioning the partnership panning out.

Iverson signed a one year deal and I doubt AI expects to finish that deal in Memphis. I believe he plans on coming out and proving that what happened in Detroit was not his fault. It was the Pistons that made him look bad, not his declining abilities. If he can play at the level he expects he can, there should be playoff caliber teams banging down the Grizzlies’ door at the trade deadline to add a player that can give them a major boost at a low cost.

I never doubted Iverson’s ability to score, but we have all been waiting for the day when his body would betray his spirit. The Nuggets clearly decided that he had reached that point during training camp last year and what we saw from Iverson in Detroit certainly made Denver look prescient.

Now that his free agency has played out I think what happens from here will be more entertaining than the process that brought him to of all places Tennessee.

Check out the coverage of AI heading to Memphis over at 3 Shades of Blue.

What’s Black and White and Sweaty All Over?

I refereed a few intramural games in college. There were three leagues, A, B and C. I refereed C league games. As you probably figured out A was the top competitive league and C was the recreational league full of people who may or may not have played before. You would think that the C league would be pretty laid back and easy to ref. Some of the guys on my floor played on a team called “Wish There Was a D League.” I am pretty sure they never got on the refs.

On some nights you had teams like my floor mates who just wanted to run around and were happy to make fools of themselves, but on other nights the participants seemed to think they were battling it out for the Larry O’Brien trophy and as a result I took quite a bit of abuse. I remember being glared at days after a game when a guy from one of the games I worked passed me on the sidewalk.

The whole point of this is I do not know who on earth would want to be a referee.

Right now the NBA and the referees union are heading towards a lockout and we are facing the specter of replacement referees. David Stern reportedly pulled out of negotiations on September 8 because the referees backed out on an agreement for pension reductions. The league has agreed to a reduced two year contract instead of the regular five year deal, which means the refs can get a better deal sooner as long as the economy turns around by then, and the referees have agreed to $2.5 million of the $3.2 million in reductions requested by the NBA.

David Stern consistently refers to NBA officials as the best in professional sports and brags about their accuracy. If they are truly only a few hundred thousand dollars apart, how is this deal not done? The union is promoting the idea that Stern is trying to make an example of the referees to try to send a statement to the players heading into their upcoming negotiations.

The NBA is moving forward with bringing in replacement referees and things have the potential to get a little ugly.

Whether we are talking about NBA referees or C league referees, they are whipping boys (and girls). I honestly believe the NBA referees have been doing pretty well the past couple of years. Even so, I am willing to bet the majority of fans would disagree with me. If fans are upset with referees that are supposedly the best, how much more upset will they be watching lesser officials?

I doubt the NBA will let this drag out until the regular season, but when you start posturing, if that is indeed what Stern is doing, disagreements can take on a life of their own. How tough will Stern look if replacement referees are a disaster and he has to cave to the union’s demands?

Record	45 - 21
Pythagorean Record	47.4 - 18.6
Projected Pyth Rec	58.9 - 23.1
Defensive Efficiency	108.2
Offensive Efficiency	115.1
Pace Factor	93.7
Field Goal %	47.4%
Opp Field Goal %	45.6%
Effective FG%	51.6%
Opp Effective FG%	49.4%
True Shooting %	56.9%
Opp True Shooting %	53.2%
Def Rebound Rate	72.6%
Off Rebound Rate	26.0%
Total Rebound Rate	49.7%

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