And did he ever..

His career high 19 points in 21 minutes, his feisty defense, and a confident poise that went well beyond his young age were a revelation to Nuggets fans who hadn’t yet been given the chance to see him fully showcase his talent. In the following game against the Utah Jazz he scored 18, and two games later against the Houston Rockets 17 points, all at very efficient percentages. The message over this four game stretch was loud and clear:

Evan Fournier is the real deal, and he’s only going to get better.

In this latest installment of the Roundball Mining Company Film Room, I have set out to make nothing less than the definitive video chronicle of Fournier’s coming out party using clips from the three games cited above. As such, the video is longer than the usual Film Room fare. But Fournier’s breakout merits an in-depth analysis of the defensiive and offensive prowess of the Frenchman who has become many Nuggets fans’ new favorite player.

As a final note before we dive in, it should be pointed out that the purpose of this scouting report is to examine Fournier’s skill, aptitude and potentiality, or in other words to focus on his positives with an eye to upside. There will likely come a time for us to look more critically at some weaknesses and things he could do better, but that is outside the scope of this project.

So without further ado, the video, with analysis below:

DEFENSE

Man-to-man defense

• Not so much a lock down defender, but communicates well and plays to the strength of the team defense
• Sticks like glue to his assignment
• Funnels his man into the help defense and cuts off a direct line to the rim

The last bullet point there is probably Fournier’s greatest strength as a defender. I said above that he plays beyond his years, and nowhere is that more apparent than in his defensive awareness. He has a great sense of where to force his assignment to go, and where to prevent him from going. He knows where the help defense will be, and how to channel his man straight into its clutches. And he does a good job of communicating with his teammates to ensure they’re all on the same page. The maturity he displays in handling his defensive responsibilities is a testament not only to the quality of player he is, but also to the value of the experience he got as a professional baller in France.

Solid defensive fundamentals

• Fights through screens
• Stays with his man even through attempted misdirection
• Works hard to keep his assignments out of their preferred spots
• Applies pressure at the perimeter

It’s often said that simply putting in effort is a big part of playing good defense. Andre Miller has gotten a lot of criticism here at RMC for not trying hard enough defensively (see Matt’s analysis here), and the difference in defensive energy when Fournier comes in for him drives the point home further. The rookie is busting his tail pretty much every minute he’s out there, fighting through screens, chasing his assignment around the court, not quite as frenetic as Corey Brewer, but active the whole way.

But it’s not just that he works hard. He’s on a very fast learning curve, and understands the Nuggets’ fairly complicated defensive system very well for a player with his limited experience. He clearly went into Denver with solid defensive fundamentals already tucked under his belt, and his awareness not only of his own responsibilities but also how they fit into the larger context of the team defense is very impressive. Though he does have his lapses, with more time and experience he has the potential to be one of the league’s better defending guards.

Steals

• Very good sense of spacing and timing
• Great at reading opposing offenses and how the play will unfold
• Solid understanding of when he can or can’t afford to slag off his man reduces risk
• Always has an eye on the passing lanes
• Utilizes his length when trapping

Fournier has the fourth highest steal percentage on the Nuggets, edging out Lawson and Chandler, themselves no slouches in the pickpocket department. (Interesting side note: Anthony Randolph is second, trailing only Brewer. Andre Iguodala is third.) As you can see, effort once again comes into play as a good amount of Fournier’s steals result from chasing down the ball handler. But he also has good length and a knack for reading and anticipating the offense, which puts him in a good position to disrupt plays and pick off passing lanes.

Transition defense

• Consistently makes the effort to get back quickly and disrupt fast breaks
• Extremely adept at chasing down and stripping the ball handler
• Makes use of good speed to stay in front of the play
• Plays unselfishly. Uses his court vision to set his teammates up with easy scores off turnovers

Fournier’s transition defense may be one of the most valuable aspects of his game. He has the speed and will to get back fast enough to break up some fast breaks, shaving potential points off the opponent’s total. And with his court vision and playmaking skills, when the transition defense forces a turnover, he’s able to facilitate scoring plays the other way.

I haven’t mentioned the playoffs thus far, but against the Golden State Warriors in particular, this aspect of his game could really be a boon for the Nuggets. The Warriors absolutely love to shoot quick 3-pointers in transition – it’s their bread and butter – and denying them too many easy, high value shot attempts could be the difference between a win or loss, and by extension, the series.

OFFENSE

Driving and finishing

• Great vision and use of screens to find and create driving lanes
• Has the quickness to get past many defenders
• Splits defenders using clever, subtle ball handling and hesitation
• Knows how to finish and use his body to protect the ball

Driving and getting to the line

• Drives aggressively to keep defender backpedaling and draw contact
• Always going straight for the rim, good at not allowing the defender to veer him off course
• Completely fearless in taking it straight to the defense

At the risk of being a bit too repetitive I included a ton of Fournier drives in the video because, well, that’s just how he rolls. As Scott Hastings and Chris Marlowe like to point out, he goes north and south, not east and west. It’s almost as if the basket is a bathtub drain or gravity well. The most natural path Fournier can follow leads him directly to the rim.

It’s this aspect of his game that has already earned him comparisons with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker (in strictly stylistic terms – no grandiose claims are being made here… yet). Layups and free throws resulting from drives comprise the source of the bulk of his scoring.

Of course, it turns out that Masai Ujiri knew exactly what he was doing when he drafted Fournier. His skill set is a perfect match for Denver’s dribble-drive-motion offense, with his ability to penetrate and get to the line, or make the good pass if he gets cut off. And those skills are combined with an utterly fearless, confident mentality. When he sees an opportunity to take it to the rim, there is no hesitation. It’s on.

In the few games he’s played a big role in so far, there have been few opposing defenders he hasn’t been able to beat off the dribble. And once he’s got that step on his man, there’s a high probability he’ll either get to the rim and score, or the defense will have to foul him to prevent that from happening. Quickness, ball handling and some Euro-stepping craftiness combine in drives that consistently slice through the paint, and if the defense allows him to get to the rim, he knows how to finish.

Solid offensive fundamentals

• High basketball IQ
• Strong court awareness and sense of floor spacing
• Great off-the-ball movement
• Very good decision making, doesn’t force the bad play
• Excellent utilization of the baseline to get easy layups and open shots off curls

Decision making may be the most important area of improvement in Fournier’s game this season. Early on, he could get himself into trouble at times with some errant passing and poor shot selection (especially forcing up contested 3-pointers). We can see little of that now, which is an additional exhibit in the case for his high basketball IQ. He’s not without his flaws, but these days he makes very few of the brand of mistakes that would draw Karl’s ire.

One of the most enjoyable and interesting aspects of making this video was focusing on Fournier’s movement off the ball. When he is not the primary ball handler, more often than not he’ll drift down to the right corner. If the pass doesn’t come to him quickly, he’ll run the baseline (or more accurately, out of bounds behind the baseline), looking to open up a play by getting behind the defense. It’s an effective strategy, and using it he gets himself open for a good amount of easy shots at or near the basket.

Passing/Playmaking

• Draws in the defense on drives and creates easy baskets for the bigs
• Good awareness and anticipation of where his teammates are
• In transition, excellent court vision, quick decision making and passing accuracy

Initiating plays in half court sets is an aspect of his game I’d like to see Fournier develop more. It’s because this part of his playmaking is somewhat limited, I presume, that Karl has Iguodala run the point even when Fournier’s on the floor ostensibly as the 1. But that’s a discussion for another time.

For now, the two areas of passing where Fournier is very proficient are (you guessed it) off dribble penetration and in transition. The former will become increasingly important as opponents start elevating his importance on their scouting reports and make a more concerted effort to cut off his drives. But the good news is that he has already displayed a great deal of competence in finding the open man when he draws in the defense in the paint.

In transition, playmaking is all about quick decision making, court vision and accuracy. And Fournier has the complete package. Next season, when he gets the regular rotation spot he has earned by now, and with it more experience playing alongside Denver’s best transition players, it’s a safe bet that we will see him initiating some pretty special transition plays. In fact, we already have.

Range and form

• Fairly quick trigger off the catch-and-shoot, does not hesitate
• Good at finding open shots in spots he likes shooting from
• Solid, fundamentally sound shooting form
• Can pull up at the arc, but keeps it to a minimum (ie. understands and plays within his comfort zone)

When Fournier was originally drafted, his shooting percentages from his time in the French League were worrisome. But once again, Ujiri is smarter than… well, apparently everyone. His selection finished the regular season as Denver’s second best 3-point shooter (.407) after Wilson Chandler (.413). Anecdotal evidence from shootarounds has Nuggets announcers and beat reporters convinced that his long range shot is legit. And his shooting form, while perhaps not having that Ray Allen elegance (though whose does?) is solid, well-balanced, and he gets good lift on his jumpers.

In the regular season, 78.6 percent of Fournier’s 3-pointers were assisted, which basically amounts to four out of five of his threes coming off catch-and-shoots. The great thing about this, when combined with the fact that he doesn’t hesitate on his drives, is that he hardly ever slows down the offense. When he gets the ball at the arc, it’s go time, one way or the other. And one need look no further than his 40 percent 3-point percentage and 70 percent at-rim percentage for confirmation that even though he’s making quick decisions, it’s usually the correct decision.

Transition offense

• Always quick to run up court, good speed helps him get past or stay in front of defenses
• Can take it coast to coast
• Again, unselfish. Keeps his head up, looking to create for his teammates
• As on his half court drives, great at finishing in transition as well

The only thing to add here which hasn’t already been addressed above (after all, many of these categories overlap each other in reality) is Fournier’s speed in getting up the court. He’s not the fastest guy on the team, but when Lawson’s in the mix that’s not a diss. He runs the floor well, but perhaps more importantly than that he has great timing, and gets off to a quick start (this applies to the defensive end as well). His compatibility with a team built on speed is, yet again, more evidence that Ujiri didn’t just draft Fournier for a reason, but for all the right reasons.

In closing, I think it’s safe to say that Nuggets Nation has a lot to be excited about when it comes to Evan Fournier. The impact he’s already made, the contributions he may make this postseason, and what now appears to be an extraordinarily bright future ahead of him.

C’est magnifique!

Statistics from Basketball-Reference.com and HoopData.com.

Denver Nuggets

113

Final Recap | Box Score

96

Utah Jazz

	Danilo Gallinari, SF 33 MIN | 6-10 FG | 7-8 FT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 3 TO | 21 PTS | +8 As I posted on Twitter during the game, I feel like every game I recap is the same story with Gallo. He does virtually nothing in the first half, starts to get going a bit in the third quarter and scores five to seven points in the fourth quarter. It makes it really difficult to grade him at times, but his scoring binge in the second half (16 points) helped the Nuggets finally put the game away.
	Kenneth Faried, SF 26 MIN | 8-10 FG | 3-5 FT | 8 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 2 BLK | 2 TO | 19 PTS | +10 Faried was absolutely dominant tonight, purely based on his energy and effort. He rebounded the ball well, flashed to the right spots in the paint and finished  something that he can struggle with at times. In a game where the team didn’t play great in the first half, Faried’s energy helped the Nuggets still get to halftime with a 5 point lead.
	Kosta Koufos, C 24 MIN | 1-2 FG | 0-0 FT | 13 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 1 BLK | 0 TO | 2 PTS | +15 Kosta’s work on the glass in a this game was incredibly impressive. In a game against a big team he was able to make Al Jefferson work for every shot and along with Faried helped keep the Jazz off the offensive glass. Thirteen rebounds in 24 minutes is just terrific.
	Andre Miller, PG 27 MIN | 6-12 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 6 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 13 PTS | +18 Miller did what Miller normally does on offense, creating shots for himself and others. While all the shots he took weren’t great he still shot 50 percent from the field and knocked down a three and another long jumper. On the other end he did nothing that really stood out in hurting the Nuggets. The best part of the whole night though was the fact that he only had to play 27 minutes on the first night of a back-to-back.
	Andre Iguodala, SG 32 MIN | 4-10 FG | 1-4 FT | 0 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3 TO | 10 PTS | +9 The boxscore will not show the impact that Iggy had on the game tonight. He played great minutes at point forward hitting cutter after cutter along the baseline, including Miller and Fournier on back-to-back possessions in the third quarter as the Nuggets pulled away. He had many more passes that turned into missed open shots and others that could be called hockey assists. On defense he was active in the passing lanes and running shooters off the line. It was just a great example of how much Iggy means to this team even with the struggles shooting the ball.
	Anthony Randolph, PF 3 MIN | 0-0 FG | 4-4 FT | 1 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 4 PTS | -1 Incomplete, though he decked Alec Burks on a screen late in the game. It was the right basketball play but one that could lead to bad blood down the road.
	Jordan Hamilton, SF 1 MIN | 0-0 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 0 PTS | -4 Incomplete
	Quincy Miller, SF 1 MIN | 0-0 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 0 PTS | -4 Incomplete.
	Corey Brewer, SF 28 MIN | 4-7 FG | 5-6 FT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 14 PTS | +16 Like Faried, Brewer’s energy in the first half was one of the main reasons that the Nuggets were able to be ahead at the half. The biggest takeaway for me was that Miller refused to settle for the corner threes when he got the chance and instead attacked the basket hard as players closed out on him. He got to the line six times and into the paint a ton. On defense he was able to contain his gambling a bit, and did a great job running the Jazz shooters off the three point line which is an important part of beating them.
	JaVale McGee, C 18 MIN | 1-3 FG | 0-0 FT | 3 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 2 BLK | 2 TO | 2 PTS | +10 JaVale was a defensive presence, made a bad decision on a 2-on-1 break and threw down an incredible alley-oop dunk. All in all it was a solid day for McGee.
	Timofey Mozgov, C 2 MIN | 0-0 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 0 PTS | -1 Incomplete.
	Evan Fournier, SG 21 MIN | 7-9 FG | 3-3 FT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 3 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 18 PTS | -1 Another great night from Fournier, as he did all the little things he needed too. He attacked the basket and finished when he got there, played sound fundamental defense and was in complete control of the game. As Ty Lawson’s availability sits in question the recent play of Fournier is a very encouraging sign.
	Wilson Chandler, SG 25 MIN | 4-10 FG | 1-2 FT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 0 STL | 2 BLK | 0 TO | 10 PTS | +10 Chandler settled for a bit too many jumpers for my liking but he did battle with Paul Millsap and even a bit with Al Jefferson in the post and held his own. It wasn’t a great night but there was nothing all that bad from Chandler either.
	George Karl Whatever Karl said at halftime worked incredibly. The Nuggets came out and just put the Jazz to bed, a difficult thing to do on the road against a team that is in a fight for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. More importantly, Karl was able to keep the minutes on most of his rotation players pretty low going into tomorrow’s game against Dallas.

Two Things We Saw

1. Urgency: The Nuggets came out in a road game against a team in the fight for the final playoff spot and flat out played harder than the Jazz did. It is an encouraging sign as the Nuggets fight for the three seed with a Clippers team that has played flat recently and a banged up Grizzlies team.
2. Encouragement: Evan Fournier played great the other night against the Nets and followed it up with another great effort against the Jazz. He finally seems comfortable after floating through games earlier in the year and with Lawson being hurt, it is a great sign for the Nuggets that Fournier is seemingly able to be counted on.

Please follow me on Twitter. 

Much to my surprise one day I received an email from Matt at Blog a Bull and he offered me an opportunity to be the Nuggets blogger at SB Nation.  I was thrilled beyond words because it was the first evidence that anyone had read anything I wrote.  Needless to say, I jumped at the opportunity and Pickaxe and Roll was established.  I knew at the very least people would be able to find my work.  At SB Nation I was able to come into contact with other exceptional bloggers and started making video breakdowns.

Other people were indeed reading my work.  Two of those people were Henry Abbott and Kevin Arnovitz.  After a great year with SB Nation Kevin contacted me and offered me a spot with a brand new network that he and Henry were putting together called the TrueHoop Network.  Although I was completely happy with SBN I leapt at the possibility to be associated with ESPN.

Being a part of the TrueHoop Network is one of the coolest things I have ever experienced.  I have had a chance to do things I never through were possible when I started concocting my drivel six years ago.

I write this now because I have reached a point in my life where I no longer have the time or energy to continue to blog about the Nuggets.  In reality I have been done for a while as anyone who frequents RMC knows.  I rarely post anything anymore so this really does not change much of anything around here.  There may be some who read this wondering who I am and who let me write this.

It pleases me greatly to know that I leave behind me a great team of writers to carry RMC into the future.  Kalen will take over as the administrator/owner of the blog and he, Joel, Charlie, Matt and Tom will continue to provide the day to day content.

In conclusion I would like to thank everyone who has helped me along the way.  Thank you to Matt at Blog a Bull for my opportunity at SBN.  Thank you to Henry and Kevin for my time with the TrueHoop Network.  Thank you to Howard Beck who offered me a chance to contribute to Off the Dribble.  Thank you to ESPN for the opportunities to have my work on ESPN.com.  Thank you to my fellow bloggers who I have had the pleasure of collaborating with over the years and for those who linked to my work.  Thank you to the Nuggets for the times I have been credentialed and for opening up to bloggers.  Thank you to Kalen, Charlie, Joel, Matt and Tom for providing great Nuggets coverage when I no longer could.  Thank you to my family for putting up with me when I was sleep deprived and grumpy from writing until 3:00 or 4:00 in the morning.

Finally, thanks to the readers.  I appreciate the time you all spend reading our work and without you, there is no need for us.  You have no idea how happy I am that so many of you have found my work worthwhile.

I am excited to see how RMC continues to grow.  I know the best is yet to come.

With that I only have one more thing to say.

Go Nuggets!

In the Nuggets fan community there are a few questions that have groups of fans divided on the answer.

Who deserves more minutes, JaVale Mcgee or Kosta Koufos? Is Andre Miller worth it? And who has the highest ceiling Gallo or Ty seem to be some of the most common.

But no debate brings out more opinions, or more intense debate, than if George Karl is the right coach for the Nuggets.

Some fans want him gone as soon as possible, while others defend him against a seemingly constant onslaught, based on the way a player or two plays in a game, or even the level of talent on the roster.

I have found myself falling in between the two camps, disagreeing with some decisions Karl makes, mainly rotation ones, while still feeling that Karl is a good coach and one that is going to get the most out of the current Denver roster.

On the bad side most of the problems seem to stem from too much trust in certain players and not enough in others. That problem is the most evident in the minutes of Andre Miller and the three main bigs on the roster.

In short, mainly because the both topics will likely be a “Staking a Claims” for another day, I believe Kosta Koufos and or JaVale McGee need more minutes and Kenneth Faried needs less minutes at center and more at power forward. In the Miller situation he just does not fit the team makeup and his bad decision making has cost the Nuggets games. Also, if Karl really feels that Miller needs to play as many minutes as he does then it is time that Ty Lawson gets a bit of a break. This season Lawson is averaging 35 minutes a game, a number that is entirely too high when the backup point guard is also averaging 25 a game. But again, those two topics will be more for other days.

One of the other criticisms of Karl is the way he handles his timeouts when other teams start making runs. Karl typically will not call a timeout to stop an opponent’s run; instead hoping to let his team play themselves back into the game. While this rubs many fans the wrong way I am not actually bothered by this tactic.

It would be one thing if the Nuggets were a young team full of rookies playing important minutes, but the Nuggets rotation players for the most part, are all guys who have been through many game situations before. They should be able to handle things, and if they do those timeouts are able to be saved an important late game situation. Obviously though, this can be taken to an extreme. If the Nuggets are on the wrong side of a 15 or 20 point run a timeout needs to be taken, but I have no issue with trying to avoid burning a timeout because of an eight or 10 point run, especially with the explosiveness of the Nuggets offense.

While Karl does have his faults in the end I believe that he is the right coach for the Nuggets, and much of that has to do with his offensive system. In an era of advanced statistics Karl has built his offense around the three most efficient shots in basketball; layups/dunks, free throws and three pointers. This has allowed the team to become one of the best offenses in basketball despite not having a super scorer on the roster.

At the moment the Nuggets have the fifth most efficient offense in the league behind only the Thunder, Heat, Spurs and Knicks, all teams with at least one better offensive weapon than the Nuggets best (Durant, Westbrook,Wade,LeBron,Parker,Melo and arguably Duncan and Bosh).

That offensive firepower is very much attributed to the Karl dribble drive offense, especially since there are not a lot of floor stretchers on the roster. The ability to have an offense that is able to get into the paint so often despite not having a reliable shooter outside of Gallinari on Lawson drives or Lawson on Gallo drives, is very much due to how Karl schemes his attack. The spacing is very effective and his new compromise to allow Lawson to shoot mid-range jumpers shows flexibility to making his attack the most effective it can be. This kind of scheme and spacing is a critical thing in Denver where the ability to gain and keep an elite scorer on the roster may always be a difficult thing.

One of the other big criticisms of Karl and his tenure in Denver is the lack of postseason success. While Karl’s past is not an encouraging sign this roster is clearly the best that Karl has ever had in Denver, and while it is already battling for a possible third seed, it is clearly still growing. With another year of growth for important players such as Lawson, Gallinari and Faried and the addition of a knockdown shooter or two this team can be extremely dangerous next year with Karl at the helm.

What makes it even more encouraging is the growth of young players under Karl. While some people point to the handling of Evan Fournier and Jordan Hamilton as reasons that Karl is not good for young players much of the Nuggets roster speaks otherwise.

Lawson, Faried, and Gallinari have all shown great strides in their game since they entered the league or the Nuggets organization and all seem like possible All-Star berths are, at the very least, possible in the future. Even other players have shown a smaller amount of growth into valuable rotation players like Kosta Koufos and Corey Brewer or even JaVale McGee who has grown greatly as a player since he arrived in Denver.

The final thing that has to be taken into account when assessing Karl is the other head coaches in the league and who could replace him. Gregg Popovich is clearly the best head coach in the league and the only one who has shown a great handling of defense and offense. A look around the other elite coaches in the league show that they struggle with things too.

In Boston the Celtics offense has consistently been below average under Doc Rivers, the same with Tom Thibodeau in Chicago. The fact of the matter is that even really good coaches aren’t perfect and Karl fits that mold.

If the Nuggets do fire him, who is the replacement that can keep this team at the level they are at? Stan Van Gundy needs shooters to fit his system and the next best coach available at the moment is probably Alvin Gentry. Is Gentry really an upgrade from Karl? I doubt it, especially when the roster is so well constructed to fit Karl’s schemes.

Sure Karl may not be Popovich but come playoff time I like my chances in a Lionel Hollins/George Karl coaching matchup. Or a Karl/Vinny Del Negro duel. In fact I like Karl’s chances to outcoach, or at least not get outcoached in any possible playoff matchup in the West outside of Popovich. If he does that the game decided by the players on the floor, which is what fans want.

Is Karl perfect?

No. But the problems he has can be fixed by the strong Nuggets front office. Get rid of his crutch of Andre Miller, and maybe even Wilson Chandler forcing Karl to play a bit bigger more often. But given what the Nuggets have built, and it is a great foundation, Karl needs to be around if they want to reach their highest ceiling in the next couple of years.

Starting with tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Lakers, the Nuggets have 25 games left in their regular season schedule. Here we’ll take a look at how the final stretch breaks down, what we might expect to see if Denver continues on its current trajectory, and the critical importance of improving their performance in road games.

The overall schedule picture looks pretty good for the Nuggets, who should be able to capitalize on their home dominance with 15 more home games but just 10 more on the road. Of the games at the Pepsi Center, seven will be played against teams currently over .500, and eight against teams with losing records. The breakdown is even more favorable for the away games, with four against winning teams and six against the under .500 crew.

In terms of the actual scheduling, too, things look fairly favorable. There are no more 4-in-5s remaining, and just four back-to-backs. Of the B2Bs, only one is against an over-.500 team. In two, Atlanta/Sacramento and Portland/Milwaukee, the first game is at home and the second on the road. In one, Chicago/Oklahoma City, both are on the road. The other has them on the road against Utah, returning home to face Dallas the next day. The Thunder game will obviously be tough, but the others are should-wins.

The Nuggets currently have the league’s third best home record at 23-3 (.885), but their road record of 12-19 (.387) ranks just thirteenth. If they continue winning at these respective percentages, it projects to finishing the season with 52 wins and 30 losses, after going 13-2 at home and 4-6 on the road down the final stretch.

Unfortunately, this may not be good enough for Denver to secure the fourth seed and home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. ESPN’s Playoff Odds, based on John Hollinger’s Power Rankings, currently project the Memphis Grizzlies finishing the season at 52-30, with Denver in the fifth seed at 51-31. Obviously this is not set in stone. They still need to play the games, and there’s plenty of opportunity for surprising developments to go down.

But Hollinger’s model increases in accuracy as the season progresses and increased sample sizes give the data more predicative power. So it’s instructive in demonstrating, based on the stats up to this point, the probability that if the Nuggets status quo continues, the Grizzlies will end up with a better record. Which means that in order for Denver to pass Memphis and claim the fourth seed, they will have to start winning games at a higher percentage.

The Nuggets are currently three games back behind the Grizzlies, but actually have four more losses. And even more daunting is the prospect that ESPN’s projectiions may be underestimating the Grizzlies.

if Memphis closes out their final 27 games at their current winning percentage of .673, they will win 18 of them and finish with 55 wins. Rolling with the hypothesis that the Grizzlies indeed reach 55, that means Denver has two paths to the fourth seed: They must either win 55 games and the tiebreaker with Memphis, or win 56 games.

Of course, the best way to secure the tiebreaker would be to beat Memphis at the Pepsi Center on Mar. 15 in what may well be the most important game of the season. In their season series thus far, Denver has two wins and Memphis one, so a win in that game would clinch the tiebreaker. If the series ends up 2-2, the next tiebreaker will be conference record.

Fortunately, the Nuggets are well positioned on this front, too. Their current conference record is 22-11 (.667), and the Grizzlies’ is 19-13 (.594). 19 of Denver’s last 25 games are against Western Conference opponents. Of these, eight are against over-.500 and eleven are against under-.500 teams.

In Memphis’ case, 17 of their last 27 games are against conference rivals, with seven against winning and ten against losing teams. So schedule wise, both teams are in a pretty similar situation. But if the Nuggets continue their current winning percentage against conference opponents, then to pass Denver for the tiebreaker Memphis will have to drastically improve their performance against the rest of the Western Conference teams they face.

But whether the Nuggets get the tiebreaker or not, the more pressing issue is that, based on their current home and road records, they are currently on pace to win just 52 games, well short of the 55 or 56 that may be needed to grab the fourth seed. But it is implausible that they’ll improve on their home performance, which is essentially in elite territory already.

So room for improvement will only be found on the road.

It is on the road where the Nuggets have suffered their biggest failures, and when it comes to the schedule, it is only on the road where they really have the wiggle room to claim a greater share of success.

Denver can no longer afford road losses like Washington and Boston, where wins were in reach but slipped away. They must properly dispense with inferior teams like the Wizards, coming out prepared and starting games more strongly.

And a noble battle for four quarters and 2½ out of three overtimes against formidable opponents like the Celtics is simply not good enough. They have to fight to the hilt, staying focused, energetic and unselfish (yes, Andre Miller, I’m looking at you) all the way to the final buzzer.

Nuggets fans have every reason to feel confident that Denver will continue its winning ways at home. They have been dominant there all season long and, barring injuries, there’s no reason that should change.

But if they cannot find a way to reverse their inefficacious ways on the road, they will find themselves having to go up against the Grizzlies or Clippers in the first round, without the benefit of home court advantage, and facing dim prospects of advancing.

The Nuggets are a laboratory project of sorts. A team without stars trying to go against the grain and prove it can hang with the best of them. And in that sense they have had some measure of success, surpassing the low expectations of doubters and naysayers by making a solid case on the court for being a legit second tier team.

But if they fail to reach the second round for the third consecutive postseason of their post-Melo incarnation, it will not bode well for the future success of their bold experiment. And pressure from fans and the media will start mounting on Masai Ujiri and Josh Kroenke to chart a clearer course for real success, as opposed to settling for “mediocrity is good enough because we’re [insert excuse here].”

So as they play out the remainder of their schedule, how the Nuggets face the challenge of winning more road games than they’ve been able to so far this season will largely define who this team really is. Is it just a mirage, pretenders putting on an act that impresses in the regular season but has little chance of succeeding beyond that? Or is there real potential in their madness to create something special, an unconventional team that truly is working its way toward becoming a legitimate contender?

If we do get answers to these questions, they will most likely be found on the road.

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