End of Season Projection

March 30, 2009
by Jeremy

By Bill Holicky (from an email on March 27, prior to the Dallas game)

To start:

Currently 46-26

 

@Dallas L

 

Golden State 

New York 

Utah           win 3 of these 4

Clippers  

 

@Minny

Ok City   win 3 of these 4

Lakers

Sacramento

 

@Portland L

 

That takes Denver  to 52-30

 

Next:, tiebreakers

 

Denver wins the tiebreaker with:

SA

Dallas

Portland (because of the secondary tiebreakers, if they finish tied Denver almost certainly beats Portland, if Portland moves ahead in tiebreakers, they almost certainly move ahead in record also)

New Orleans (tie breaker is conf record, and New Orleans has a much tougher slate of conf games left)

 

Denver loses tiebreaker with

Houston (this is a big deal) however, if Denver is tied with Houston, but they win the Northwest Division Denver gets the higher seed because the Nuggets’ division championship would trump the Rockets’ win in the season series.

 

Toss Up

Jazz (Denver is behind one game, but plays them at home.  If Denver wins they are tied in head to head play, tied at that moment for division record each having one game left at Portland, and one game back in the next tie-breaker, conference record, but the Jazz finish with a merciless slate of away division games.)

 

Current Standings:

 

LA –

SA 10

Houston 11

Denver 11.5

NO 12.5

Portland 12.5

Utah 13

Dallas 14

 

Final standings (see below)

1      LA 60+ wins

2      SA 57 wins

3      Houston 53 wins

4      Denver 52 wins (wins tiebreaker with Portland)

5      Portland 52 wins

6      NO 51 wins

7      Jazz 50 wins

8      Suns/Dallas  48 wins (not sure who wins tiebreaker?)

 

Thoughts

·         It’s gonna be tough for Utah to catch Denver if we beat them at home next week. 

·         Because Denver wins the tiebreaker with Portland and we play them the last game of the season, if we win that game we almost certainly finish ahead of them. 

·         Those 4 crappy losses earlier this month probably cost Denver 3rd. 

·         If Denver beats Dallas tonight we have a shot at 3rd (moving into a virtual tie with Houston) and put Suns into 8th ahead of Dallas.

 

——————————————-

Denver should finish with 52 wins

 

Utah has 44 wins

Suns W

Knicks W

@ Portland L

@ Nuggets L

Timberwolves W

@ Hornets L

@ Mavs W

@ Spurs L

Warriors W

Clippers W

@ Lakers L (but could the lakers be shut down?)

Utah finishes with 50 wins

 

Houston has 47 wins

Clippers W

@ Suns L

@ Lakers L

Trailblazers W

Magic L

@ Kings W

@ Warriors W

Hornets W

@ Mavs W

Houston finishes with 53 wins

 

Dallas has 43 wins

Nuggets W

@ Cavs L

@ Timberwolves W

Heat W

@ Grizzlies W

Suns L

Jazz L

NO W

@ NO L

Timberwolves W

Rockets L

Dallas finishes with 48 wins

 

Suns have 40 wins

@ Jazz L

@ Kings W

Rockets W

Kings W

@ Mavs W

@ NO L

@ Grizzlies W

@ Wolves W

Grizzlies W

Warriors W

Phoenix finishes with 48 wins

 

Hornets have 44 wins

@ Knicks W

Spurs L

@ Kings W

@ Clippers W

@ Warriors W

Jazz W

@ Heat L

Suns W

@ Mavs L

Mavs W

@ Houston L

@ Spurs L

Hornets finish with 51 wins

 

Portland has 45 wins

Grizzlies W

Jazz W

@ Thunder W

@ Rockets L

@ Griz W

@ Spurs L

Lakers L

@ Clippers W

Thunder W

Nuggets W

Portland finishes with 52 wins

 

San Antonio has 47 wins

Clippers W

@ NO W

Thunder W

@ Pacers W

@ Cavs L

@ Thunder W

Portland W

Jazz W

@ Kings W

@ Warriors W

Hornets W (although this game could be meaningless to the Spurs and if so they will rest the big three and turn this one into a Hornets win)

San Antonio finishes with 57 wins.  Wow.

Posted on March 30, 2009 at 10:14 pm | filed in | No Comments

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