The quote from Chandler’s agent, Chris Luchey, that caught my attention was this one:

“The ball is in their court. If Wilson is comfortable, he will be a part of their core group.”

Let’s look at the facts. Denver is without their leading scorer Danilo Gallinari for the next three to four weeks.  They have lost six of their last seven and have fallen from a solid second to a precarious sixth in a week and a half. Chandler cannot threaten to sign the qualifying offer for leverage for a long term deal.  No team is likely to throw a large offer sheet at him that is worth considering.  (Detroit, Sacramento, New Orleans? Please.  He is not risking getting stuck with any of those rebuilding squads.  The other possibility is Indiana, but with Danny Granger and the ascending Paul George in place, I doubt they want to spend money to bring in Chandler.)  OK, back to our facts.  If Chandler cannot return to the NBA until after March 1, by rule, he cannot even sign an offer sheet.

The bottom line as Kalen has pointed out is Chandler has almost no leverage.  If he wants to get paid now, his best hope is to make his return sound inevitable and put the onus on Denver to get a deal done.  With the fans desperate to see the team stop their slide and Gallo out, bringing Chandler back is their number one priority. There is just a minor hurdle to overcome.

Money.

Denver has made long term commitments to Arron Afflalo, Nene and Gallinari this summer.  They still have room to add another one or two above league average players into their salary structure going forward.  In all likelihood one of those two slots will go to Ty Lawson.  That means the Nuggets have one more bullet in their free agent magazine.  Should it be expended on Chandler?  A player who will back up the team’s best player?

I completely believe Masai Ujiri when he proclaims the following:

“Our goal is to re-sign Wilson Chandler,” Ujiri said. “We like everything about him. Wilson was one of the key players we got in the trade with New York and he’s a phenomenal player, shooter and defender.”

At what cost will they look to bring him back into the fold?  I have no doubt Chandler is going to be seeking at least Arron Afflalo money, though maybe not a full five seasons.  As we have discussed here previously, Chandler would love to get a one year deal which would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent following the season.  I highly doubt the Nuggets go down that road.

The most likely outcome in my mind is the two sides come to an agreement on a three year, $18-$21 million deal.  It puts some money in Chandler’s pocket.  The Nuggets completely lock in their core of the post-Melo team. Chandler is not stuck in Denver long term, plus Denver could have some financial wiggle room in the summer of 2014 with Birdman,

However, there is a good possibility that Denver is not prepared to offer Chandler enough to seal the deal.  There is a possibility the Chandler sits out the remainder of the season and then hits restricted free agency this summer. If that happens, Luchey has fired the first salvo in the PR battle.  Chandler is just waiting to suit up for Denver and if it does not happen, it is the Nuggets’ fault.

Other Links

Nate Timmons makes a good point at Denver Stiffs.  Do not forget that Chandler has been bothered with ankle issues in his young career.

Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post has comments from George Karl on the rumored return of Wilson.  Plus he steals my Nuggets fans second favorite team joke (kidding, I am only kidding, he would have to read RMC to steal it).

Guangsha won their game today and is 16-13 and holding the eighth and final playoff spot.  However, they only defeated the third worst team by a single point and are 7-12 since their 9-1 start with two of their three final games against good teams.  Chandler apparently came off the bench and shot 4-14.  There is still hope for Guangsha to miss the playoffs!

Charlie’s Perspective

Jeremy did a great job spelling out this particular piece of non-news reported by Marc Spears. While on the surface it seems like a fantastic development that Wilson plans to return to the Nuggets, you need only but read the piece in detail to realize this is little more than a negotiating tactic by Chandler’s agent. Denver and Chandler are no closer on a contract than they were months ago. Nothing has changed outside of Wilson’s willingness to play for the Denver Nuggets, and I always believed Wilson would be amenable to playing in Denver with the right contract.

As we found out yesterday (thanks to the help of our commentors), Chandler is an a very unique situation thanks to his restricted status and his inability to control his fate while he toils away in China.

Chris Luchey said it best in his statement — “it’s a unique situation.” What is unique about is that Chandler is essentially out of options. The only bit of leverage he had left is the threat of signing an offer sheet with another team by March 1. Luchey’s statement is essentially a confession of what was already painfully obvious — there will be no offer sheet in Chandler’s immediate future and he isn’t even eligible to sign one until granted a FIBA letter of clearance (unobtainable until his Chinese team’s season is over).

Luchey’s statement also reveals Wilson is indeed itching to return to the NBA this season, following Kenyon Martin’s path to a latter of clearance and a new NBA contract. The only realistic way to accomplish that is to join the Nuggets so naturally, that’s his plan.

It’s like walking into the only Ford dealership in town and trying to haggle the price down with the threat of walking away. They have the exact car you want and can safely ignore the empty threat of you walking away because nobody else is selling that car. If you want it, there is only one supplier with which you can negotiate and nothing except honor and goodwill is preventing them from totally ripping you off.

Chandler is in the same situation with the Nuggets. He is counting on them to honor his market value despite there being no market forces at work.

The Nuggets are in a difficult situation where they have to be cold-hearted and take advantage. They must offer a below-market contract to Wilson while there are still zero ramifications for doing so. They have to protect their long-term intersts.

The question becomes how much of a discount is Wilson willing to give them? By doing so, he gains a prorated amount of salary for playing this season versus sitting out and earning nothing. On top of the lost potential earnings he still faces the uncertainty of restricted free agency next summer. If the difference between a below market value contract is less than or equal to the prorated potential earnings, then it makes sense to sign the discounted contract. This is what makes Jeremy’s idea of a two or three year deal with a smaller total amount a likely compromise.

It’s clear Wilson’s only viable strategy is to make the Nuggets so desperate to get him they would act as if they are bidding against other teams to lock him up, despite the fact it’s physically impossible for anyone else to  bid. Ideally, the Nuggets would become so pressed for his services that they relent and grant him a one year deal allowing him the holy grail of freedom for NBA players – unrestricted free agency.

Only in dreams would Denver be so foolish to allow that to happen. I think it’s a non-starter to even consider it. Unfortunately, this is the scenario Chandler’s agent is hoping will come to fruition should contract negotiations eventually come to a halt.

That means there is a sizable chance Denver doesn’t sign Chandler this season and he goes into restricted free agency in July. Denver will look like the big bad bully and the oppressive cheapskate, but such is the cost of doing cutthroat business in the N.B.A.

I still believe there is a good chance Wilson signs a cap-friendly shorter-term deal to remain in Denver. It makes financial and basketball sense for everyone involved. There should be no more doubts about his willingness to reside in the city of Denver and accept millions of dollars to play basketball there.

Unfortunately, Wilson just made his first move in the dangerous game of chicken that will be contract negotiations to bring him back. The game is rigged in Denver’s favor however and how much they choose to abuse that will determine whether or not Chandler actually joins them.

Dallas Mavericks

105

Final Recap | Box Score

95

Denver Nuggets

	Nene, C 36 MIN | 6-12 FG | 4-5 FT | 10 REB | 2 AST | 16 PTS | -10 Nene had a harmless double-double. I was surprised he produced this much because he continues to have trouble finishing at the rim. Nene had an incredibly difficult cover in Dirk Nowitzki but that is not an excuse to completely neglect defending the weak side. No blocks, no steals, and too many turnovers. The one thing Nene did well was keep his head in the game instead of expending all of his energy arguing calls.
	Julyan Stone, G 7 MIN | 0-0 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 0 PTS | -8 I don’t know why the Nuggets went away from Stone. Karl keeps putting him in a terrible situation where he’s not in a position to make plays or develop his point guard abilities. I like the way Stone defends, but it’s hard to ignore how he helped the Nuggets get off to a horrid start on both ends of the court. I’ll give Stone an incomplete. The starting lineup experiment couldn’t have gone much worse and Stone suffered the most for it. He was not given a chance to play after 8 uneventful minutes.
	Chris Andersen, C 14 MIN | 1-4 FG | 0-2 FT | 2 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS | -13 Birdman is like that cheap, no-name vodka occupying the bottom shelf of your favorite liquor store. Are the cheap thrills of a good night once in a while worth the ensuing week-long headache? No, and consistently going there is a sign you may have a serious problem. Starting him was Karl’s strangest decision yet. He hasn’t started since 2008 against the Hawks, where he also struggled mightily and the Nuggets lost. I like Birdman in small, infrequent doses when the team is exceptionally flat. Starting him flat out didn’t work.
	Arron Afflalo, SG 34 MIN | 4-12 FG | 2-2 FT | 0 REB | 1 AST | 12 PTS | -21 It’s tough to settle on a good grade for Afflalo, because he showed some fight coming off another horrendous start. There was a stretch in the third quarter where he looked to be asserting himself as a leader while imploring the Nuggets to work harder on the defensive end. Unfortunately, Afflalo was just way too up and down. He missed every big shot he took and just didn’t consistently play up to his talent. He finished with a game worst -21, a stat not indicative of his true play but a strong sign that he just doesn’t have it together. There are signs he is getting there.
	Ty Lawson, PG 38 MIN | 5-16 FG | 4-5 FT | 1 REB | 10 AST | 16 PTS | -4 Lawson wasn’t aggressive enough, but it’s totally unreasonable to expect him to just start taking over games while trying to grow into his long term role as a starter. A double-double from your starting PG should be more than enough for any good team in the league to get a win, especially one with as much depth and scoring talent as Denver. It’s imperative that Lawson get way more aggressive going to the rim, but at least he is improving. The main problem is the defense and Lawson can’t fix that. Ty has the right idea in trying to make this haphazard offense work by not forcing too many shots, but he simply needs to get meaner and be relentless attacking the paint.
	Al Harrington, PF 33 MIN | 6-10 FG | 3-5 FT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 17 PTS | -5 Great stats, but just one of those hollow efforts as you never got the sense he had much of an impact on the game. To be fair, the game was pretty out of hand by the time he came in. Al Buckets is at least making shots and not afraid to take them when needed. With the Nuggets suffering a crisis of confidence at the moment, you have to appreciate what Al brings to the table. Unfortunately Harrington is a big part of the Nuggets giving back way more points than they are able to put up. I had to dock Harrington’s solid production because he ultimately didn’t make plays when the Nuggets needed it most. Al’s effort does not go unnoticed though, I love how hard he’s playing and this team’s problems are much bigger than him.
	Andre Miller, PG 29 MIN | 3-5 FG | 4-4 FT | 7 REB | 6 AST | 11 PTS | +4 His defense is so bad, you need a nightly double-double just to compensate. Miller can’t guard anyone and the team seems to know it. Karl seems okay with having him lay off his man while praying he can cut off drives to the rim. The problem is teams are finding the open shooter and Miller can’t be bothered to close out. Outside of the defense, Miller struggled again with turnovers but played about as well as he can offensively. This may be the best you can get out of Miller in a nightly bench role and I’m not sure giving a 36 year old this many minutes is the wisest idea.
	Rudy Fernandez, SG 29 MIN | 6-9 FG | 3-4 FT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 17 PTS | +4 Fernandez had the hot hand early and helped close out the second half on a mini Denver run. The Nuggets then curiously went away from him while the starters lost all momentum. His shot selection was much better and his gambling defense continues to be frustratingly hit or miss. Still, Rudy played with a lot of passion and showed resolve on a night the rest of the Nuggets looked scared.
	Kosta Koufos, C 20 MIN | 2-4 FG | 0-0 FT | 8 REB | 0 AST | 4 PTS | +3 Koufos is impressing me more with each game. He still makes a lot of mistakes getting caught on switches and trying to guard the perimeter, but the guy is only 22 years old and still learning the most difficult position in the NBA. He usually produces whenever he gets minutes, so I don’t understand why he was removed from the starting lineup. Koufos may have been the only positive in terms of the defense tonight and he barely played. I was wrong about the guy — he’s a surefire rotation player and the Nuggets need to live with some rookie mistakes while developing him.

Five Things We Saw

1. A new low: In my game preview, I praised the Nuggets for playing hard against terrible circumstances. I expected them to play desperate and make their own luck with a heroic home effort against the defending champs. I am shocked at the way Denver is playing at home this season. This team is clearly making excuses and not resolved to fight through the injuries. The Nuggets were never legitimately in this game. They did not have a chance and for me, it qualifies as the worst effort of the year. They are shorthanded and perhaps they should have lost, but there is no excuse not to fight hard.
2. Adversity: The Nuggets are embarrassing themselves but still need fan support. This is the worst stretch of the George Karl era I can remember, but the Nuggets still sit with a decent playoff seed and a great chance to turn things around. This team is probably not a contender, but that is not a reason to give up on the season. There is too much at stake and too much time to make amends. This stretch doesn’t have to hurt the Nuggets too badly if they can find the resolve to fight through it. Keep supporting the Denver Nuggets.
3. Son of a switch: The Nuggets again reverted to switching screens in an effort to simplify a defense they have no idea how to fix. I hate switching because it does not promote any sort of accountability in terms each player taking pride on that end of the floor. A lot of bad teams resort to switching because their personnel is inexperienced or unable to grasp team concepts on defense. Tonight we saw Afflalo matched up on Marion and Lamar Odom, Andre Miller and Ty Lawson on Dirk, and countless other mismatches the Mavericks exploited at every opportunity. The only solid defensive stretch came with Koufos in the lineup yet the Nuggets did not reward him.
4. Zoned out: The Mavs often played 3 players wide near the basket with 2 defenders roaming the perimeter outside. They conceded threes to Nuggets shooters and dared them to make shots. It was so effective the Nuggets offense often had trouble even finding an open look. The worst part is Denver hesitated to shoot against the zone and often dribbled around aimlessly or bulldozed their way into double and triple teams. The Nuggets were great against Miami’s zone earlier this year and now this team hardly bares any resemblance. This crisis of confidence on the offensive end has to end. The team lacks mental toughness needed to fight through this right now.
5. WILSOOOON!!!!: For those looking for any good news tonight, Yahoo Sports is reporting that Wilson Chandler has decided to re-sign with the Denver Nuggets upon his return from China. Unfortunately, this turned out to be little more than a ploy by Chandler’s agent to put the onus on Denver to bid against themselves and deliver Chandler to fan base desperate for good news. See Jeremy’s post here for full details and my thoughts on the matter.

Game 26 Advanced Stats

Pace Factor: 93.9 – No energy. A totally flat performance
Offensive Efficiency:  101.1 – Tough to judge because the game was a laugher. Nuggets didn’t get close
Defensive Efficiency:  111.8 – It’s time to start getting worried. Denver is a really bad defensive team

Candid notes by Kalen

I have to agree with Charlie about Stone, Birdman and specifically Karl’s rotations altogether. At this point, it’s just getting tough to understand his point of view. He desperately wants to keep his bench in tact (even though it’s essentially just Miller and Harrington) so he resorts to starting a rookie point guard at small forward who’s hardly played a single stretch of significant minutes all season. Then, after starting Koufos for a few games and even Faried, he tries out Birdman who’s largely been relegated to “DNPs” for the last 10 days. I understand tinkering with lineups once injuries strike but isn’t this the same guy who utterly refuses to play rookies no matter how good they may be and basically preaches to the media about the importance of keeping his rotations tight?

Starting Stone, a point guard who never once played a full season at small forward while in college, just doesn’t make sense and again as Charlie says, doesn’t put him in a position to succeed. Stone isn’t an effective scorer and needs the ball in his hands to distribute, which is his strength. What’s even the point of playing him a measly seven minutes at a position he’s entirely uncomfortable playing in the first place? If it is, as Karl says, just to keep his bench rotation intact then that’s nothing more than an idiosyncrasy with no real strategy behind it. And of course, this goes directly against what Karl has traditionally lauded in terms of why he likes smaller rotations and avoids rookies. He’s always said he prefers giving regular rotation guys a few extra minutes rather than letting someone at the far end of the bench take them, yet here he is going staunchly against that very notion.

At this juncture, it’s just hard to buy what Karl’s selling, especially in terms of the talented crop of young rookies on the roster. Now would be an excellent time to tap into the deep bench the Nuggets possess to see just how promising these rookies really are. Instead, Karl will likely end up messing with their heads and sending mixed signals regarding his confidence level in them.

During the recent six-game losing stretch the Nuggets are allowing 104 points per game while only scoring 96. That’s a scoring differential of negative eight. The Nuggets usually average 104 points per game, which despite this most recent struggle, is still first in the entire league. Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball the Nuggets give up, on average, 99 points per game. In summary, not only are the Nuggets letting teams score way more points than they typically do, but they’re also failing to make up for it by scoring more points themselves. Even the one go-to aspect of the Nuggets team that you though you could always count on — scoring — finally appears to failing them.

This is probably the most troubling statistic you will dig up regarding the Nuggets most recent woes and while there’s no doubt injuries have contributed to this startling trend you’re still left to wonder who exactly this Nuggets team really is. Is it the team that won six straight games on the road for the first time in franchise history, or the team that lost six of its last seven to most of the same Western Conference teams it will likely face in the playoffs? Is it the highest scoring, most unselfish, offensively potent team in the league, or the team that can’t even buy an open 3-pointer nor find a way to score a bucket when it needs it most? The fact of the matter seems to be, that while the Nuggets have a lot of talent on the squad it also has a very simplistic way of doing business that often times malfunctions in the face of adversity. Nuggets fans can only hope that these issues are soon realized and resolved.

As for the ongoing Wilson Chandler saga that’s caused quite the confusion within Nuggets Nation, it appears we finally have some clarity and resolution thanks to a few loyal Roundball Mining Company readers and primarily salary cap guru, Larry Coon. According to Coon:

Restricted free agents can’t sign offer sheets after March 1 of any season, and this season is no exception… If Chandler wants to play in the NBA after March 1, his only option will be to return to the Denver Nuggets… A sign-and-trade arrangement, in which one of these players is signed by his previous team and immediately traded to a new team, is out of the question. The new collective bargaining agreement prohibits sign-and-trades after the season starts… So if [Wilson Chandler and Aaron Brooks] return to the NBA after March 1 and don’t sign with their previous teams, they likely must wait until this summer – when they again will be subject to restricted free agency. It’s potentially a no-win situation for both.

In summary, if Chandler is to return and receive his FIBA letters of clearance before March 1, he can sign an offer sheet from any team in the NBA which Denver has the option to match; however, the Nuggets cannot complete a sign-and-trade with Chandler and another team since the season has already gotten underway. Conversely, if Chandler’s team in China is to make the playoffs and therefore postpones his return until after March, he then has two options: either re-sign with the Nuggets or wait until this summer when he can sign an offer sheet with another team which Denver would still have the option to match.

The scenarios that could possibly play out in the next month will be fascinating from a Nuggets perspective. If Chandler is to return before March 1 and in turn, signs an offer sheet from another team, it will likely be one the Nuggets are less than thrilled about matching. In fact, it’s entirely possible that a team with ample cap space could offer Chandler a contract north of the $10 million per season range which would put the Nuggets roughly that same amount over the cap threshold this year. Would Stan Kroenke be willing to pay this? If not, the Nuggets could theoretically lose Chandler — by far its best trade asset — and get nothing back in return. But if Kroenke does give the green light to match, then the Nuggets would almost certainly explore trade options sometime next year in order to free up what would be an unnecessary contract from its payroll, which in turn would create much needed cap room to re-sign Ty Lawson.

The most beneficial scenario from a Nuggets standpoint is, without question, Wilson Chandler returning after March 1. This would prevent him from signing a potential catastrophe of a contract from another team and would guarantee that if he wanted to play in the NBA this year, he’d have to re-sign with the Nuggets. Masai Ujiri and Josh Kroenke won’t be foolish either. Signing Chandler to a one or two-year deal, even if inexpensive, will subtract all future trade value he may possess after entering the market as a restricted free agent. Ideally if March 1 passes and Chandler still greatly desires to play in the NBA this season, the Nuggets should use their leverage and coax him into signing a frugal, long-term deal that undersells his current value but ensures him the right to play this season. Not only would this make the decision to keep Chandler long term much easier, but if the Nuggets did ever decide to trade him, he’d be an extremely valued asset due to his cap-friendly contract. If Chandler and his agent don’t go for the relatively moderate payday the Nuggets offer up and instead decide to wait until summer to cash in, the Nuggets also benefit as they’ll still have the right to match whatever offer he receives and in all likelihood will be able to pull off a sign-and-trade that sends an asset or two back Denver’s way.

Lastly, here’s a pretty cool video featuring Wednesday’s starter at small forward, Julyan Stone.

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A note on the recent struggles (by Charlie)

With the team currently mired in their worst slump in years, morale is predictably low among Nuggets faithful. There’s no doubt things don’t look good and figure to get worse before getting any better. While losing 5 out of the last 6 games has been no fun for anyone, I do think fans are jumping the gun on declaring the Nuggets’ season in jeopardy.

The fact that the Nuggets are struggling at home only makes losses hurt worse. The Nuggets’ best basketball has been played in other arenas and fans aren’t witnessing the signature mile-high blowouts the Pepsi Center is known for. Fans have every right to be upset and demand the Nuggets find a way to fix this. They simply cannot afford to squander one of the best home court advantages in the N.B.A. during a season like this.

There are legitimate concerns about the Nuggets poor play as of late. While I hate making excuses for losses, the impact of the recent losing streak has been way overblown. Scheduling woes and injuries have much more to do with the losses than the Nuggets simply being a bad team.

What’s getting lost in the shuffle is how hard the Nuggets are playing despite the losses. They nearly squeaked out a win against the Lakers after being on the wrong end of a national TV back-to-back in Denver (a loss for the traveling team something like 80% of the time). Andre Miller gave away a big lead in Memphis with turnovers and missed free throws. Gallo went down with a chip fracture at the worst possible time.

The only totally bad game in this recent stretch was a double digit loss in Portland. I’m convinced no team in the N.B.A. had a legitimate shot of winning such a brutally scheduled game. It was the third in three nights and a stretch of four in five in which the Nuggets traveled and switched time zones every game. In all honesty that loss could not have been realistically avoided. In all likelihood it didn’t matter who played and that’s why I argued most of the regular rotation should have sat out.

The Nuggets badly need a win right now. The defense is in total freefall and remains a big-time concern, but they are still a deep team with a winning brand of basketball. I expect the Nuggets to come out desperate tonight and eventually right the ship despite the ridiculously difficult schedule ahead.

Fans are also ignoring a lot of the good developments coming out of these hard times. The rookies are seeing their first real action and showing promise. Although Kenneth Faried didn’t have the spectacular double-double debut many were somehow predicting, he gave us a great glimpse of what makes him such a unique and promising player. Kenneth gave a tremendous effort every possession and he plays defense with pride. Faried will endear himself to George Karl and have a bright future in Denver, it just can’t come soon enough for Nuggets fans who want to see more right now.

It’s no secret the Nuggets are in a defensive rut. Karl is responding with one of the wackiest starting lineups all season against the Mavericks. It’s clear his aim is to get the Nuggets off to a better start so the defensively-challenged Andre Miller isn’t asked to dig the bench out of a hole. Assuming Birdman and Stone get the defense off to a better start, you have to wonder about where the offense will come from considering there are no shooters and scorers surrounding Nene. Right now, it’s better to worry about fixing the defense and let the offense figure itself out later. While I find it strange, I have  great respect for what Karl is hoping to accomplish.

Julyan Stone is going to pull the illustrious honor of starting and defending Vince Carter and Jason Terry. Although I was harsh on Stone for his lack of production against the Rockets, he held Kevin Martin to 1-9 shooting and made him a complete non factor throughout the game. Stone is another rotation player coming out of his shell before our eyes, but it’s just hard to keep a starter on the floor if he’s unable to put any points on the board. I expect Stone to eventually figure it out and come through with a big time performance if Karl continues to show this kind of confidence in him.

The Nuggets have to defend the perimeter and start running a more fluid offense immediately. Like I said, they are desperate for a win right now and despite everything working against them, they’re going to figure it out and play much better. Whether or not that happens tonight remains to be seen, but their fortunes will change so long as they keep playing hard and developing talent. There is still much of the season left and great things to be found if you can stomach looking beyond this depressing spat of losing.

As everyone who cares about the Nuggets knows, Wilson Chandler chose to sign a contract to play in China despite the lack of an opt-out clause which would allow him to return to the N.B.A. should the lockout end prior to the cancelation of the 2011-12 season.

Projections for Chandler’s availability have ranged from March to April.  The way I understand it, Chandler will be freed from his service to the Zhejiang Guangsha Lions as soon as their season ends.  While the truth is that could be anywhere between February 15 and sometime in April, there is an ever so slight chance that the Lions season could end on the fifteenth.

Eight of the 17 teams in the Chinese Basketball Association make the playoffs.  Right now despite Chandler’s average nightly output of 26.0 points and 11.3 rebounds Guangsha is ninth.  If they fail to move up into the top eight, their season will be over in eight days.  If that happens, it is certainly possible Chandler could be playing for the Nuggets before the All-Star break.  Guangsha is 6-9

(Editors note:  The initial version of this post included a few paragraphs on how Chandler would sign the Qualifying Offer and become an Unrestricted Free Agent after the season.  Charlie found out from Larry Coon that Qualifying Offers had to be signed by December 25, 2011.  Thus the next couple of paragraphs are inaccurate.  I will leave them up though so you can all enjoy how dumb I am.  Coon assures us that he will have an article up on this very topic tomorrow.)

Kalen provided some projections as to what might happen to Chandler upon his release from China .  The fact that the Qualifying Offer is in place makes him a Restricted Free Agent, but he cannot actually sign the Qualifying Offer.  That means the following options are on the table.

1.  Chandler can sign a long term deal with Denver.

2.  Chandler can sign an offer sheet with another team as long as he can do it by March 1.

3.  Chandler can be sign and traded.

4.  Chandler can sign a one year deal with Denver that would set him up as an Unrestricted Free Agent this summer.

5.  Chandler is not offered a contract that is palatable to him and he goes into next season as a Restricted Free Agent as long as Denver ponies up another Qualifying Offer.

(Editor’s note: As commentor nugzin2040 pointed out in the comments and as has been confirmed by Larry Coon in this article (which I sure wish he had posted yesterday and thanks to commentor Steve for the link) players cannot be signed and traded during the season.  So feel free to ignore any more mention of option three in this post.)

Denver will likely match any offer sheet thrown Chandler’s way knowing they need him in the short term and can move his salary off their books in the long term.  I suspect other teams know that and there will be no offer sheet in Chandler’s future, plus none of the teams who have room to sign Chandler would be an appealing destination for him.

If Chandler signs a one year contract it will be as if he had signed his Qualifying Offer and will become an Unrestricted Free Agent next summer.  However, Denver would have to offer him that one year contract as he can no longer sign the Qualifying Offer.  Do not expect the Nuggets to make that mistake and risk losing Chandler for nothing.  The threat of signing the Qualifying Offer is the big leverage players have, but that leverage for Chandler is now gone.

I have no idea what the Nuggets’ plans are from a financial standpoint.  They can afford Chandler without threatening the luxury tax.  They will not want to lose him for less than he is worth, but if they are paying in the high teens for Chandler and Gallinari, they will restrict their ability to improve other areas of the team.

Look for Denver to either sign Chandler to a palatable deal for two or three seasons or for him to sit out the remainder of the season and try again this summer.  If Chandler is released prior to the March 1 deadline, there are not many teams that are likely to give him an offer sheet that is appealing to him.  If I had to put money on it, I would expect Denver and Chandler to come to an agreement on a shorter contract that would pay him without locking him into Denver for his entire prime, but I have a long history of losing money on the rare occasions I put any down on one of my “educated guesses.”

If Chandler wants to recapture the leverage the Qualifying Offer provided him as well as open up the door to more teams to provide offer sheets he could sit out the remainder of the season.  He would only be sacrificing two months of playing time at the most and that might be palatable for him.  I believe he wants to play and that is why he went to China in the first place.  I expect him to play this season.

We may get an idea of how far along management thinks this team is.  If they jump at the chance to sign Chandler and overpay him just to get him on the floor, it shows they think they have a shot to win it all this season.  If they wait, do not sign him and push his restricted free agency into the summer, it shows they believe what they have been saying publicly all along; this team is not a title contender this season and there is no need to rush into a deal with Chandler to help the short term at the expense of the long term plan.

Whether or not there is a quick resolution to Chandler’s contract following his release from China, with the Nuggets currently in desperate need of a small forward Nuggets fans now have a new second favorite team, whoever is playing Guangsha.  If they miss the playoffs, Chandler will be back playing for Denver well before Gallo can return.

Guangsha is currently 15-13, tied for eighth, but listed as ninth so I assume they lose the tiebreaker to the team they are tied with, Shanghai.  To make things even more exciting there are six teams within a game and a half of each other hovering around the eighth spot.  In their four remaining games (I have no idea how they have fared in the two games that have been played since the standings were updated) Guangsha plays two of the bottom three, the second place team and a team that they train by half a game.  They are only 6-9 over their previous 15 outings and If they manage to only win two of those games, they very well may miss the playoffs and Chandler could be delivered.

For the first time ever, we will keep a close eye on the final week of the CBA regular season.  It very well could mean a big difference in Denver’s playoff seed.

Reader Input

RMC reader Wayne Pan sent in this report on Wilson Chandler quite some time ago and I completely failed to post it in a timely fashion.  Now is as good a time as ever.  Thanks to Wayne for the email!

My name is Wayne and I have been working in China for the past 5 years. I have a been a long time reader for your blog and recently I had a chance to watch a CBA game featuring Zhenjiang, the team Wilson Chandler is playing on, at Dongguan. So I thought I would share my experience of watching Wilson Chandler play in CBA and what it’s like to attend a CBA game.

Before The Game

- Despite some research, I wasn’t able to buy any tickets through internet or by phone. Fearing I wouldn’t be able to get tickets, I drove 45 mins to the arena the day before the game to get tickets for my friend and I. I brought the VIP seats at around 80 US each, which is right behind the scorer keepers. When I brought my tickets, I checked out the monitor of the tickets, there were still tons of tickets left (about 80%)

- When my friend and I arrived on at the arena 30 mins before tip off, I asked the ticket counter and there were still a lot of tickets left, including the VIP seats. That would explain the inabilities to buy tickets online or by phone, there were no needs to.

- The gymnasium itself isn’t much, its quality is about a North American high school gym with more seats, which is expected consider they are playing at a town in Dongguan.

- Despite the lack of tickets sales, the seats were about 70% full by the time game started.

- The other foreign player for Zhenjian is Peter Ramos, a 7’3, 280lbs center drafted by the Wizard in 2004. He is massive even in NBA standards, he also suffers “Greg Oden Syndromes”, meaning he’s 26yrs old but looking like 46.

- Dongguan team has the tallest player in the CBA, Sun Hao, a 7’4 center who’s only 21 years old and weighs only about 21lbs as well.

The First Half

- It seems CBA has a rule of not allowing two foreign players on the court at the same time in the first half, at least that’s what happened for both teams.

- Wilson Chandler plays point guard a lot as he often brings the ball up but he’s not that good of a passer as he averages only a little more than 2 assists a game.

Wilson Chandler warms up before a game in China.

Wilson Chandler Lines up for a free throw.

Wilson Chandler gives a post game interview after leading his team to a win.

Thanks to Wayne for the info.  Now you know what it is like to check out a game in China!

Houston Rockets

99

FinalRecap | Box Score

90

Denver Nuggets

	Kenneth Faried, F 18 MIN | 2-4 FG | 2-4 FT | 8 REB | 0 AST | 6 PTS | +1 Time to temper the high expectations surrounding the Manimal. All things considered, he had a very solid debut in his first real NBA game. Despite some foul trouble, he showed a lot of promise defending Scola and Dalembert. Faried even skied high for a spectacular block and his high energy play energized the crowd in a painfully ugly game. It was not the most productive jaw-dropping debut, but Faried simply needs to take baby steps towards becoming a better player and he did so tonight.
	Danilo Gallinari, SF 20 MIN | 4-9 FG | 6-7 FT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 14 PTS | -5 I thought Gallo still showed signs of fatigue but battled hard in the 20 minutes he was able to play. He rolled his ankle badly in the third quarter and it was later revealed he suffered a possible chip fracture. It’s just a terrible injury at the worst possible time. Gallo hasn’t always played like the Nuggets best player but he’s clearly been one of the toughest. Assuming he’s out for a few weeks this is an incredibly costly loss.
	Kosta Koufos, C 23 MIN | 3-3 FG | 1-2 FT | 3 REB | 0 AST | 7 PTS | +1 Koufos couldn’t keep up his solid production as a spot-starter. Despite having a size and quickness advantage over the Rockets front court, he clearly doesn’t know how to assert himself on the block. What’s worse is he fouled out in 23 minutes. Despite notching some impressive blocks, 2K showed he’s a work in progress on the defensive end. Although Koufos is in his fourth year it’s hard to forget just how raw he still is.
	Ty Lawson, PG 39 MIN | 5-14 FG | 2-3 FT | 1 REB | 7 AST | 13 PTS | -2 Lawson had a tough time matching Lowry, one of the most overlooked guards in the league. It was tough for him to create with Houston packing the paint and doing a solid job getting back in transition. There was no post up threat on the floor and no consistent pick and roll options to work with. Ty tried his hardest to get others involved without forcing shots, but he could have been a lot more assertive with his own offense. Considering how talented he is, it’s tough to see him go passive even for small stretches of game.
	Julyan Stone, G 21 MIN | 1-5 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 2 PTS | -4 Stone has trouble hitting an open jump shot and I thought it was a curious decision to start him. Although I’m a big Stone fan, Andre Miller seems more motivated as a starter and has played poorly off the bench. Stone’s length and quickness contributed to a solid defensive performance, but he had trouble fitting in on the offensive end where Miller and Lawson assumed most of the point guard duties, relegating him to becoming a spot up shooter.
	Al Harrington, PF 33 MIN | 5-16 FG | 2-6 FT | 15 REB | 0 AST | 12 PTS | -8 Harrington was asked to step way outside of a reasonable role yet again. He played close to 40 minutes twice in the past week and tonight he pulled the majority of the duty at power forward. 15 rebounds is pretty fantastic, but it cost him on the offensive end where Al couldn’t hit a shot or make free throws down the stretch. I give All all the credit in the world for his effort, but he just didn’t look good in the defense and rebounding glue guy role. Buckets is at his best when he’s living up to his namesake as a reliable bench scorer.
	Andre Miller, PG 31 MIN | 5-10 FG | 1-2 FT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 12 PTS | -13 I get a lot of criticism for being hard on on Miller, but I expect a lot of out of him. He’s clearly capable of orchestrating the offense and yet consistently puts up duds every couple of games. He’s supposed to be the steady veteran hand guiding this young squad and showing them how to win. Miller opened the game with four first quarter turnovers, three of which were credited to him but all due to errant Andre passes. Miller just didn’t look like he was into it tonight and he just can’t set that kind of example for this team.
	Chris Andersen, C 19 MIN | 4-4 FG | 2-3 FT | 9 REB | 0 AST | 10 PTS | -7 Birdman clearly took exception to being benched and responded with one of his most productive outings of the season. As the game wore on Birdman’s defense faded a bit, but for a guy who hasn’t been playing his energy was a valuable shot in the arm to a lethargic defensive team. All in all Bird made the most of his minutes and you can’t say that for anyone else who received significant playing time
	Rudy Fernandez, SG 35 MIN | 5-13 FG | 3-6 FT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 14 PTS | -8 Fernandez used up a ton of crucial possessions this game and just didn’t deliver enough. It was a huge opportunity for him to assume a larger role and play big minutes with no Brewer and Gallo out with an injury. Rudy doesn’t offer spacing and hasn’t developed into a potent playmaking threat. The worst part of his game is the defense where he inexcusably jumps the passing lanes without regard for his teammates. Rudy was abused by every Rocket he attempted to guard tonight.

Five Things We Saw

1. Ugly: It’s hard to imagine a more disheartening way to lose. The Nuggets shot a higher percentage than Houston and handily out-rebounded them. They failed to defend the three and hit free throws. This was another night to forget, as you just never sensed the Nuggets possessed the same will to win as their rivals. These kind of efforts shouldn’t happen at home, especially for good teams who generally don’t outwork their opponents yet still manage to lose
2. Home Alone: The crowd was dead tonight as the shorthanded Nuggets struggled to keep up the energy. This is the third home loss this season in which the Nuggets came out lethargic and the energy in the building was flat. Denver traditionally has a great home court advantage and the Nuggets are not taking advantage.
3. Costly loss: The Nuggets already have a losing record against the Western Conference and they drop even further to 7-10. Denver is 1-3 in the northwest division. Looking at the rest of the schedule this was one of the more favorable games in February and one the Nuggets should have figured out how to win. It gets harder from here, and Denver has now lost five of six including three straight at home
4. Scheduling woes: Even though the Nuggets did have a day off, they just came off of three straight games on top of four in five nights. It was clear they could have used more rest, but there’s only so much to complain about when losing at home. The Nuggets have now been beaten handily by the Hornets, Jazz, and Rockets at home where they never seriously threatened to win. That tells me the schedule is far from the only factor in the Nuggets recent struggles.
5. We have a problem: Houston just seems to have the Nuggets number. They have won 3 of the last 4 meetings at the Pepsi Center. Give credit to the Rockets, but the Nuggets are just in a bad funk right now. They are playing poorly; they seem to know it and when they get in position to win or seize momentum they manage to play worse. There’s nothing to do but wait it out, and this may be the wrong time considering Gallo just went down and the rest of the schedule in February doesn’t get any easier.

Game 25 Advanced Stats

Pace Factor: 101.5 – Nuggets had no problem controlling pace and outrebounded Houston
Offensive Efficiency:  88.6 – Bad, laughably bad. Like 20 turnovers bad.
Defensive Efficiency:  97.5 – Actually one of the better ratings of the past week, but it comes in a 9 point loss at home

Candid Notes by Kalen

As Charlie already mentioned, the fracture in Danilo Gallinari’s foot couldn’t have come at a worse time and not just because the Nuggets are already without three of its four starters. Nene, Afflalo and Mozgov will come back soon, but Gallinari is likely out for a while. His “chip fracture” will require at least a couple weeks to heal, but chances are Galliari could be out until March. George Hill of the Indiana Pacers recently suffered the exact same injury and reports are his fracture will keep him sidelined for roughly one month. If this injury is serious, Gallinari is going to miss the most crucial stretch of the season. February is by far the toughest month the Nuggets will have to endure this year and considering how bad they’ve played of late, this was a month where things essentially needed to go perfect in order for them to keep playing at a high level. Harrington should be able to step in and make up for the loss of production coming from the starting small forward spot Gallinari occupies, but that in turn leaves quite a hole in terms of production off the bench. Corey Brewer should see an expanded role and will likely fill in just fine, but it doesn’t change the fact that losing your leading scorer in the midst of the toughest stretch of the season creates a sizable and perilous obstacle to overcome.

Which leads me to my next point: If the Nuggets struggle mightily in the coming weeks, it will only (erroneously, if I might add) increase management and the fans’ desire to secure Wilson Chandler even more. If Denver had Chandler right now, Gallinari’s injury wouldn’t be near as costly — on the court at least. As I mentioned in my recent Nuggets News post, Chandler’s contract is going to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in terms of flexibility moving forward. It’s absolutely imperative that no matter how many games the Nuggets lose in the month of February, Ujiri and Josh Kroenke do not re-sign Chandler to a hefty contract based solely on a knee jerk reaction in an attempt to get a few extra wins this year. Again, depth is NOT the problem with this team. Adding one more small forward in the long line of wing men the Nuggets already have will certainly help, but it won’t fix the perimeter defense, one-on-one defense, atrocious three-point shooting/shot selection, offensive rebounding, turnovers and desire to win down the stretch. If Wilson Chandler wants to be in Denver and is willing to settle for a reasonable price, great; but at this moment the last thing the Nuggets need to do is get in a bidding war over his services because they’re myopically focused on getting the team back to playing dominant basketball this year without regarding the structure of the franchise in the future.

Which leads me to my final point on this issue: Injuries are not an excuse to lose basketball games. This is the time where coaches truly shine. This is where we’re going to see what George Karl is really made of. Winning with the deepest team in the league is one thing; winning in the face of adversity is a whole nother story. Nobody is asking Karl to go undefeated on road trips or come out the other side of February looking sprightly and untarnished. What fans are asking for however, is that the Nuggets get back to playing the type of basketball that landed them the two seed in the Western Conference to begin with. Denver has played awful during this recent losing streak, and yet, most of the issues the team faces are ones that can be fixed as long as they’re addressed. If the Nuggets continue to ignore trends that obtrusively rear their ugly heads, Karl is the only one that can be blamed. It’s the coaches job to find ways to fix problems, and if nothing else (and I mean nothing), at least attempt to get your team to play the way they need to in order to win. Formulating a better defensive game plan, demanding better one-on-one defense and above all, figuring out a way to execute down the stretch should all be atop the Karl’s “To-Do” list and about the only things the Nuggets focus on every day in practice from here on out until they are resolved.

As for those problems, it’s starting to become more and more evident that the Denver Nuggets are a team that does a few things well, followed by bevy of other things not so well. While the Nuggets rank near the top of the league in points, assists and steals, they also rank near the bottom in several critical statistical categories. As of now the Nuggets rank 25th in opponent’s steals per game, 26th in opponent’s points per game, 27th in turnovers, 29th opponent’s 3-pointers attempted and 29th in opponent’s 3-pointers made. Bottom line: The Nuggets are turning the ball over way too often and then giving up 3-pointers on the other end of the floor. That is exactly what we saw against Houston, exactly what we’ve seen the entire season and exactly the type of basketball that absolutely will not win you many games in the NBA no matter how good your offense is!

One last note: Can Rudy Fernandez please (A) take less contested, unbalanced three-point shots and (B) make the ones he gets that are wide open? That would be awesome. Thank you.

Now, while die-hard fans — like those who frequent this blog — may be thrilled at the concept of Faried and Stone playing big minutes, it’s important to keep in mind just how paramount this upcoming home stand will be for the Nuggets. After playing four of the next five games at home, Denver will once again hit the road for a Western Conference swing very similar to the one the Nuggets just went 1-4 on. In addition to facing the Thunder, Mavericks, Grizzlies and Clippers at their home arenas, the Nuggets will also travel to Indiana to take on the Pacers who currently have the fifth best record in the entire league; therefore, taking care of business at home will be imperative, and it starts tonight.

Houston is a team the Nuggets cannot afford to overlook. Although the Rockets sit on a moderate 13-11 record, they’re also one of the hottest teams in the entire league having won 11 of their last 16 games. They also have a handful of very underrated players capable of inflicting unforeseen damage like perhaps no other team in the NBA. Starting with 6-11 center and former member of Roundball Mining Company’s “Players the Nuggets should consider signing” list, Samuel Dalembert, in addition to the hard-working power forward, Luis Scola, the Rockets will trot out a front court with lightyears more experience than than Nuggets. Dalembert has already recorded 10 or more rebounds on nine different occasions this year, including four occasions in which he hauled in at least 15 boards. He also ranks ninth in the NBA in both offensive rebounds and total rebounds per 48 minutes as well as sixth in blocks — three categories the Nuggets are sorely lacking in at the moment. Scola on the other hand, while having somewhat of a down year numerically, still has the ability to fill it up and has always given the Nuggets problems with his hustle and refined post game.

Although their front line is certainly nothing to scoff at, the real test for the Nuggets on Monday will come from Houston’s back court. Kevin Martin and Kyle Lowry combine to form one of the best back-court tandems in the league and are both legitimate backup candidates for the All Star team. While Martin ranks third in points per game and PER among all shooting guards, Lowry ranks first among players at his position in rebounds, fourth in steals, fifth in 3-pointers made and eighth in assists per game. Julyan Stone and Ty Lawson must hold these two in check in order to give Denver a fighting chance at winning the game. Seeing how both Stone and Faried play against starting-caliber NBA players on Monday should go a long way in understanding where these players stand at the moment, as it will be the first time all year that both players will have logged heavy minutes together outside of garbage time.

Denver Nuggets

97

FinalRecap | Box Score

117

Portland Trail Blazers

	Nene, C 27 MIN | 1-5 FG | 2-2 FT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 4 PTS | -18 It’s no secret Nene tends to struggle against taller, more talented big men. We saw it against the Lakers and again Saturday night against LaMarcus Aldridge and the Blazers. Early on Nene attempted to go after Aldridge down low in the post but got turned back on nearly every occasion. From that point on he disappeared and never really attempted to get back in the game.
	Danilo Gallinari, SF 36 MIN | 7-14 FG | 5-5 FT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 20 PTS | -20 Gallinari drove aggressively to the hole and for that I commend him. This was a solid bounce-back performance after a few disappointing outings in which he took far too many outside jump shots. Gallo gave it his all for most of the game and looked completely pale on the sidelines at the end of the fourth quarter.
	Kosta Koufos, C 34 MIN | 7-11 FG | 2-2 FT | 12 REB | 1 AST | 16 PTS | -5 This was by far Koufos’ best game as a Nuggets and quite possibly the best game of his career. He logged at least 30 minutes for the first time in a Nuggets uniform and put up season highs in both points and rebounds as a result. More than anything, against the Blazers Koufos proved that if he receives enough playing time, he’ll produce. His 12 boards were a career high and the most of any Nuggets since Nene had 13 against the New York Knicks. His 34 minutes were also a career high.
	Arron Afflalo, SG 20 MIN | 0-5 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 0 AST | 0 PTS | -1 Something has to be up with Afflalo. Nuggets’ radio announcer Jason Kosmicki tweeted after the game that he might have a groin injury, which leads one to question why he’d be playing in the first place. Even if he was truly injured it still doesn’t change the fact that Afflalo has struggled mightily up to this point in the season and is without question the biggest disappointment of the year so far. This was his second game in the last six where he received at least 20 minutes of playing time and has gone scoreless in the process. Maybe Afflalo should just take a few games off, get refocused and come back when he’s ready.
	Ty Lawson, PG 32 MIN | 7-14 FG | 1-2 FT | 4 REB | 5 AST | 16 PTS | -19 Lawson was a standout in terms of effort. He was flying around the court all night, looking as if he was the only one who hadn’t succumbed to chronic fatigue like most of his teammates. He penetrated with precision and either ignited or got out on the break every time he was presented with the opportunity. This was clearly one of Lawson’s most effective games in the last week.
	Al Harrington, PF 22 MIN | 3-6 FG | 2-2 FT | 6 REB | 0 AST | 9 PTS | -15 Harrington didn’t take a lot of shots but found a way to contribute in other areas, especially on defense where he played solidly against the much taller LaMarcus Aldridge. Once again Harrington’s passion for the game overflowed on to the court as he could be seen giving 110 percent even in the waning minutes of the game when the Nuggets didn’t have a shot at winning.
	Andre Miller, PG 14 MIN | 1-3 FG | 0-0 FT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 2 PTS | -8 Miller looked absolutely lost. Granted, his 14 minutes didn’t allow him to make the type of impact he’s capable of, but there was probably good reasoning behind his lack of playing time in the first place. Batum’s career night began when Miller “attempted” to guard him, and in his first handful of buckets that went in from beyond the arc Miller didn’t even put a hand up to contest the shot. We’ve known Miller struggles on defense at times, but not even attempting to contest a shot is absolutely inexcusable. Because of this, Miller gets the first “F” I’ve handed out all season.
	Corey Brewer, SF 20 MIN | 4-10 FG | 6-7 FT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 14 PTS | -7 Although a good chunk of his minutes came in garbage time, it’s hard to ignore just how energetic Brewer was in his time on the floor. Fourteen points in 20 minutes to go along with five boards, two assists, two steals and a block is nothing more than pure hustle numbers. His defense continue to impress, although he needs to work on not turning the ball over quite as often as he does.
	Rudy Fernandez, SG 23 MIN | 3-8 FG | 2-2 FT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 9 PTS | -19 Fernandez seemed somewhat hidden. Even in 23 minutes of action it was hard to tell what exactly he was doing on the floor. I did notice him playing stingy defense on a few occasions yet I also couldn’t help but look at the box score and “smh” at his five three-point attempts. Rudy simply isn’t hitting 3-pointers at a high clip, so why he continues to take so many is baffling. It would be nice to see him drive to the basket more than just once in a blue moon.
	Julyan Stone, G 3 MIN | 0-0 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 1 AST | 0 PTS | +5 Stone, like all the rookies, didn’t play very much even though he should have. Still, his defense was great and his willingness to find nearly all of his teammates on offense continues to be a good sign from a young point guard. It’s hard to see Stone play with so much enthusiasm on the defensive side of the ball and not want to see more of him.
	Kenneth Faried, F 5 MIN | 1-2 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 4 PTS | +2 Faried definitely still has a ways to go before he’s a sound NBA player and more than likely this is going to take a while. He’ll go through some growing pains in the process, although I cannot stress enough how his energy, defense and rebounding will cover up most of these flaws. Right now he should be focusing on making the right basketball play rather than the most electric ally oop; nevertheless, just like Stone it’s almost frustrating watching Faried play because you’re always going to want more.
	Jordan Hamilton, G 3 MIN | 1-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 0 AST | 3 PTS | +5 You can tell, Hamilton has some offensive fire power up his sleeve. He hit yet another 3-pointer in the final seconds of the game to show off his range and displayed a fairly decent handle to go along with it. After seeing him get a little more comfortable each time out, you’re left to wonder just how effective he might be alongside the second, or first, unit in the heat of a real game.

Game 24 Advanced Stats (and notes by Charlie)

Pace Factor: 94.9 – Hardly matters, it was a blowout
Offensive Efficiency: 102.2 – The Nuggets never led and the bench was non-productive
Defensive Efficiency: 123.3 – Blame fatigue, but the defense remains in total freefall and reached a new low

• Kalen did a great job breaking down the game, but I don’t have much to add except the fact that Nuggets just couldn’t climb this ridiculous mountain. As the game started they did a decent job keeping up and with Koufos in the lineup they actually rebounded quite well. The Nuggets just could not get up and down the court after a while and lacked energy all night. Players gave what they could and with the regular rotation it was never going to be enough. That being said…
• George Karl has to loosen up on the starters. No professional athlete likes to get embarrassed and blown out. Nene in particular was just simply over-exhausted tonight. It was evident in the first quarter that just getting up and down the court was was a problem. After a physical game against the giant L.A. Lakers, Nene just didn’t have enough in the tank to run full speed with Lawson or battle down low with Camby and Aldridge. He needed a break badly, and Karl left him out there for 27 minutes to suffer the worst game of his career. There’s no reason for this George – it’s borderline cruel letting Gallo and Nene suffer through an embarrassing blowout deep into the fourth quarter. Not only is it unsafe but the players deserve better than that.
• There’s something physically wrong with Afflalo. We know mentally he’s in a bad place and fatigue was a huge factor. Watching the game I felt he just looked wrong moving around the court and Jason Kosmicki may have confirmed it by tweeting that Arron’s groin was bothering him. AAA isn’t playing well, but I’m beginning to fear he’s pushing it too hard and exposing himself to further injury.
• The Nuggets defense hit a new low point. Karl had them frantically running around trapping and looking to force turnovers despite the fact no one had energy to get up the court and finish. Andre Miller coming into the game is where plane crashed into the mountain. He just didn’t put forth any effort in terms of contesting shots or picking up his man.
• This was a game to forget. It’s easy to blame the circumstances, but the Nuggets knew that approaching this game as if it were any other normal game would result in them losing 100% of the time. I did not expect a win, but I thought Karl needed to do something differently to give his team a fighting chance. I would like to see him protect certain players when they clearly can’t give any more on the court.

The next month is going to be extremely telling for the identity of the 2011-2012 Denver Nuggets, and in turn, whether Denver chooses to keep Wilson Chandler or explore sign-and-trade options. Of all the future opponents the Nuggets will face throughout the month of February, only two teams are currently more than one game below .500 (with the Timberwolves sitting at 11-12 and on the rise as we speak). Should Denver struggle — which at this point appears likely — there’s a good chance management will be influenced to try and re-sign Chandler in order boost the Nuggets depth and talent level even more. However, there are a few key factors outside of “win total” that Denver will heavily weigh in the decision-making process before reaching a conclusion regarding where to go with Chandler.

First and foremost, the Nuggets need to figure out how open Wilson Chandler is to the idea of playing a backup role behind Danilo Gallinari and more than likely, Arron Afflalo. Even if the Nuggets are able to give Chandler the type of money he desires, and deserves, there’s still a large possibility that starting on an NBA team is just as important to him as receiving the type of contract that truly reflects his talent level.

The second biggest factor in determining where Chandler ends up playing ball for the next handful of years in the NBA is, in all likelihood, Stan Kroenke. Though son and current president of the Nuggets, Josh Kroenke, is undoubtedly calling his fair share of shots these days, in reality it’s Papa Kroenke that has the final say on all financial dealings that occur within the Nuggets organization, including the team payroll. As of right now the Nuggets are sitting roughly $1 million under the salary cap. Should Chandler re-sign with the Nuggets his contract would put the team well over the cap which would force Kroenke to pony up quite a bit of his own cash in order to comply with league regulations of paying one dollar for every dollar your team is over the cap threshold. Even with the Nuggets sitting near the apex of the Western Conference’s elite, you have to wonder how willing Kroenke will be to paying a hefty sum of his own hard-earned cash for a team that struggles to win games resembling those they will surely see come playoff time.

Finally, depth, financial flexibility and playing time moving forward will need to be strongly considered by the Nuggets before committing to Chandler long term. As was written by Charlie several days back, the Nuggets are already facing issues with the copious amount of depth on the roster. Adding yet another wing player who deserves 30 minutes per night will only exacerbate whatever current problems the Nuggets are facing. Though Chandler would without question pose as a significant upgrade to the Nuggets second unit, it’s worth noting that Denver (if it chooses) already has three talented small forwards locked up through at least the 2015-16 season with Corey Brewer also on the books until the end of next year. Between Nene, Gallinari, Afflalo and Harrington alone the Nuggets have roughly $37 million on the books for next year and this isn’t even taking into account Koufos, Andersen, Stone, Faried, Hamilton, Mozgov Brewer and the money the Nuggets will need to pay Ty Lawson in order to retain his services for the foreseeable future. Including Gallinari’s contract, the Nuggets are set to distribute close to $55 million to 12 different players next year, with the cap likely coming down or remaining about the same.

Considering all the factors mentioned above, as much as the Nuggets may want to re-sign Chandler, it’s difficult to see this idea coming to fruition. The Nuggets simply do not have the cap room, roster flexibility nor minutes in the current rotation to add yet another wing scorer to the equation. Though it is possible to re-sign Chandler — by using the amnesty provision on Andersen which would free up much-needed cap room — it must remain absolutely imperative that the Nuggets move beyond loyalty and think ahead for the future, especially in regards to roster construction and possible missing links that will still need to be conjured up in the coming years. In the present scenario, it just doesn’t make sense to hand out yet another bulky contract to a wing man when the Nuggets are already committed to three small forwards for the next four seasons.

Keep in mind that, if for some reason, Chandler truly wants to return to Denver, the Nuggets will not hesitate to make it happen. Masai Ujiri’s track record (including his scheduled meeting with Chandler in China) has proven he’s a “players” general manager who likes to establish friendly relationships with his clientele and, evident by the more recent free agency period, believes in re-signing his own players above all else. Ujiri and Josh Kroenke know Chandler is young, talented and improving and certainly will not see re-signing him as a move in the wrong direction (after all, some assets are better than no assets); however, the best basketball decision — which at this point in the game should reign supreme in the decision-making process — is to move Chandler for draft picks or possibly a big man that could come in to Denver and start immediately.

The Toronto Raptors are reportedly set on making “life hard” for the Nuggets when it comes to re-signing Chandler, according to HoopsWorld.com. In the scenario which Chandler is to re-sign in Denver, the last thing the Nuggets need is another team willing to drive up the asking price for his services. Denver simply cannot afford to overpay Chandler, no way no how. That said, it’s crucial Denver refrains from showing any inkling of reluctance to shell out the pretty penny it might very well take to get Chandler back in a powder blue uniform. This will ensure Toronto doesn’t get the vibe that Denver is desperate to make a deal which should keep most of their top flight assets on the table.

Above all else, Denver must look to “steal” Toronto’s first-round pick in this year’s draft if at all possible. This should be, without question, the centerpiece of the deal from Denver’s perspective. The upcoming 2012 draft is littered with the types of franchise-changing players Denver is in desperate need of and when playing ESPN’s Lottery Mock Draft, the Raptors (as projected by their current record) come out in the top 10 nearly every time, often landing inside the top five. Though the Raptors would likely be reluctant to part with such a potentially impressive asset, the Nuggets could sweeten the deal by offering up their first-rounder along with a second-round pick (Denver has two this year) and additional players from their roster if necessary.

In order to make salaries match the Nuggets will likely have to consider taking on the contracts of either Amir Johnson or Leandro Barbosa (whom the Raptors are reportedly willing to shop), depending on how many other players get included. It would of course help if Toronto would somehow commit to taking on Chris Andersen in the process, as it would rid the Nuggets of perhaps its worst current contract on the books. Unfortunately, to make this happen Johnson’s lengthy contract would also have to be absorbed by Denver which would essentially negate that move all together, however its important to keep in mind how much younger (24 as apposed to 33) offensively talented and capable of playing heavy minutes Johnson is compared to the Birdman at this point. Ideally, if Toronto would accept Chandler and a first and second-round pick from Denver in exchange for Barbosa and their unprotected first-round pick in this year’s draft, the Nuggets will have had it made. If Toronto demands more Denver can always consider throwing in Jordan Hamilton or another future first-round pick being that the Nuggets aren’t in debt in this aspect of the franchise.

Though it does indeed seem illogical for Toronto to give up their lottery pick in what’s perceived as the best draft since 2003, keep in mind just how desperate the Raptors are for a small forward and how willing general managers are to obtain the assets they covet most. Last year for example, the Clippers traded away what turned out to be the No. 1 pick in the draft just so they could banish Baron Davis’ undesirable contract, which in the end could have simply been amnestied at no charge (other than paying his salary) had they waiting nine more months for the new Collective Bargaining Agreement to kick in. Bottom line: Never underestimate the cost a team is willing to pay in order to obtain whatever it desires most.

Links

In case you haven’t heard, Kenyon Martin agreed to terms with the Clippers for a few million dollars recently.

ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh breaks down a lot of the things we discuss on a daily basis here at Roundball Mining Company (INsider).

John Schuhmann of NBA.com has a great piece with all sorts of video analysis on the potency of Denver’s offensive attack.

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Los Angeles Lakers

93

FinalRecap | Box Score

89

Denver Nuggets

	Nene, C 31 MIN | 5-12 FG | 2-4 FT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 12 PTS | -6 Nene had trouble defending and scoring on the Lakers’ bigs down low. Los Angeles has always been a bad match-up for the Brazilian big man, and Friday proved no different.
	Danilo Gallinari, SF 29 MIN | 1-9 FG | 3-4 FT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 6 PTS | -1 Gallinari started off the game scoring a few buckets but went ice cold from there on out. This is another among a handful of bad performances Gallinari has had recently and the second game in the last three where he’s been relegated to the bench late in the fourth quarter of a tight game. Even considering his struggles, it’s hard to understand why he wasn’t at least on the floor for the final play of the game.
	Timofey Mozgov, C 7 MIN | 2-3 FG | 0-0 FT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 4 PTS | +3 Mozgov was playing great yet again until he went down with an ankle injury. He was defending well and made several nice shots in the post. As weird as it sounds, the Nuggets missed him greatly once he exited the game.
	Arron Afflalo, SG 24 MIN | 3-7 FG | 0-0 FT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 7 PTS | -7 Afflalo played good defense for most of the game and came up with a few steals in the process. His struggles continue and naturally so does his erratic insertion into the lineup.
	Ty Lawson, PG 36 MIN | 6-12 FG | 2-3 FT | 3 REB | 7 AST | 14 PTS | -4 Ty Lawson was one of the strong points to a Nuggets team that had difficulty doing anything well against the Lakers. While Gasol and Bynum offer up an intimidating combo for the diminutive guard to score against, he still found ways to affect the game in other areas.
	Al Harrington, PF 37 MIN | 8-16 FG | 5-6 FT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 24 PTS | -8 Big Al came up “big” in the fourth quarter where he scored 10 straight points to keep the Nuggets alive. His passion and desire to win are proving to be some of the most valuable intangibles this Nuggets team has to offer. Unfortunately, the rest of his teammates couldn’t quite bring it the way Al did against the Lakers.
	Andre Miller, PG 30 MIN | 5-6 FG | 6-6 FT | 3 REB | 7 AST | 16 PTS | +1 Miller had a solid night numerically but once again had trouble guarding his opponents. Even though he may be one of the better players on the Nuggets roster its perplexing as to why he always closes out games even when he’s pitted against much larger shooting guards where Afflalo might have more success.
	Corey Brewer, SF 9 MIN | 1-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS | -4 Brewer didn’t see much time but in the minutes he did receive he brought the standard infectious energy level that Nuggets fans have become accustomed to seeing.
	Rudy Fernandez, SG 21 MIN | 1-7 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS | +4 This was by far one of Rudy’s worst games of the season. His three-point shot was not falling, yet he continued to hoist up countless jumpers which almost never made it through the rim. Again, it’s imperative that Rudy makes an impact in other areas of the game besides just shooting 3-pointers.
	Kosta Koufos, C 16 MIN | 1-2 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS | +2 Koufos wasn’t exactly having his way against the Lakers bigs and finished the night off on the bench for most of the second half as a result. Similar to Nene, this was a tough match-up for the young center even though he gave his best effort in the minutes he was given.

Game 23 Advanced Stats (and thoughts by Charlie)

Pace Factor: 92.1 – Maybe it was tired legs. Either way L.A. controlled pace all game
Offensive Efficiency:  96.7 – Really disjointed effort and sloppy play
Defensive Efficiency:  101.0 – Not good at all. No consistency on this side of the ball.

• George Karl said after the game that Gallo’s vision was blurred and he had trouble seeing after being smacked in the face on a drive to the rim. Although Gallo had a horrible game up until the point World Peace clobbered him, he never looked right after the injury and it certainly played a part in his benching.
• That being said, fans need to jump off Karl for benching Gallo again. There wasn’t any reason to bring him back in. Gallo will close games in the playoffs and he needs to learn how to be tougher and earn the trust of his teammates in tight situations. Please, do not give me the argument he opens up the offense or scares opposing defenses in any way. He needs to make good decisions with the ball to do that. Once again, as soon as Gallo went out Karl’s decision paid off and the Nuggets made a run to get within one possession.
• Afflalo’s defense on Kobe was very good. As Kalen mentioned nobody else did a good job guarding him and the Nuggets double and triple teaming came back to bite them. Kobe has seen that a million times and knows how to beat it. Karl needed to play Afflalo more. Why he didn’t I’m not sure other than the fact Karl wanted Andre Miller in the game and the Nuggets had serious size problems going that small. It’s frustrating, we know AAA isn’t playing his best but 24 minutes is far too little especially with the coach begging for defense throughout most of the game.
• Give the Lakers credit, they were motivated and completely controlled Nene. The Nuggets got nothing going in transition and every shot was contested. Add in the tough scheduling factor with the Nuggets flying in after a late west coast game and it’s hard to complain about losing on a last second shot that may have won it.
• Speaking of the last shot, you’d like better execution in that situation. Spread the floor with 4 shooters and give Nene the ball. I was begging for the Nuggets to shoot a three and steal a game they had no business winning. Overtime would have been bad idea with another tough game in Portland tomorrow. Harrington’s attempt wasn’t the play we all wanted but lets give Al some credit. He’s played hard all year and earned the right to take that shot.
• Looking at the schedule, it’s impossible to have a more difficult game than the one tomorrow. Three games in a row, all with travel in bad weather. Not only that, they are traveling after late starts and getting in around four in the morning twice in a row. To top it all off they face one of the most dominant home teams in the league who are angry and highly motivated after a loss to the lowly Kings. Oh yeah, and they’re fully rested. Pray for a watchable game tomorrow night.