1. What aspect of the Denver Nuggets has changed the most since the start of the season?

Kalen: The progression and similar decline between Arron Afflalo and Danilo Gallinari. While neither of these guys had their best showings in the playoffs, there’s no denying that as a whole, they shifted positions between the start of the regular season and its conclusion in April. Remember, through the first month of the season Gallinari was averaging close to 19 points per game while shooting roughly .47 percent from the field and .88 percent from the line. In addition, he set a new career high with 37 points in what was, at the time, the biggest win of the year against the Knicks. It was by far the best month of his career.

Meanwhile Afflalo was a borderline pariah amongst fans and frequent victim of hypothetical trade machine deals after he got off to a slow start averaging only 10 points per game on .415 shooting from the field and .692 from the line over the first month of the season. Fastforward to April (the last month of the regular season) and Afflalo was carrying the team on his back through the midst of a playoff hunt, averaging about 19 points, four rebounds and 3.4 assists per game on .521 percent shooting from the field, .45 percent from downtown and .84 percent from the line.

While many will point to Gallinari’s injuries as the downfall of his season — and rightfully so — you still have to acknowledge the fact that he had close to a month to get back to his original form from the beginning of the year, yet he only averaged 12.6 points per game on .37 percent from the field during this span. Seeing how much these players changed over the course of the season should pose as a harsh reminder to fans that judgement is meal best served with a side of patience.

Jeremy: Expectations. When the Nuggets started off 14-5 there was a good portion of Nuggets Nation that believed the boys in blue were a contender. As the season wore on and injuries took their toll, the focus shifted from winning the West to just making the playoffs. By the end of the season, despite having a full complement of players (sure Wilson Chandler missed the playoffs, but he was never a factor in the season including the 14-5 opening) fans were no longer hoping for a shot at the finals, but rather a couple of wins before being eliminated.

The front office showed they knew the Nuggets were not contenders with the Nene trade, and when Denver forced Game 7, fans who were talking about a deep playoff run were now content to enjoy the second most successful playoff “run” in 18 years. I think heading into the offseason everyone is on the same page, Denver is a very good young team, but they are a player or two away from being a true contender. Some may believe that those players are on the roster and just need to mature, but I doubt anyone will be proclaiming Denver a preseason favorite to make the finals next year.

Charlie: The Nuggets identity. I think this shortened season was the first true test of whether the post-Carmelo model had any prospects for sustained, long-term success. Last summer there was the idea that trading Melo for an ensemble cast of role players was all the rebuilding the Nuggets needed to do in order to start competing for a championship.

Charlie: Hopefully it will teach the Nuggets to never be satisfied with themselves. After being out of the playoff picture at the All-Star break, Denver finished strong to move up to the sixth seed and definitely entered the postseason too complacent with what they had achieved. The result was a Game 1 in which the scared Nuggets didn’t look ready to play and basically laid down while putting the Lakers in the drivers seat for a series win. Even as the Nuggets toughened up and perhaps were the better team in the latter part of the series, they did themselves in by getting behind the 8-ball early. In the regular season, the Nuggets can settle for winning one out of two on the road or having their deep bench make up for some lackluster performances by their best players; in the playoffs, that just doesn’t fly. This team isn’t going anywhere past the first round until the coaches and players take that to heart.

3. What’s must the Nugget do to ensure they improve even more next season?

Kalen: Say the course. Since the Melo trade the Nuggets front office has spent the last year and a half constructing a team with the exact DNA this current Nuggets squad possesses. Now that it’s finally arrived it’s important to see where this roster can go. Obviously the Nuggets will continue to make moves in order to put them in a position to win more games, but outside of moving Chandler and a few other small pieces, I think it’s crucial that the Nuggets keep the starting five in tact and run with this youth movement. Let Jordan Hamilton, Julyan Stone and hopefully another talented rookie (similar to Faried) become vital parts of the rotation in addition to the veteran presence of Al Harrington and a possible stabilizing free agent. Although young, there’s an enormous amount of talent on this roster and it would be disingenuous to break it up before we really get a chance to see how it can play as a cohesive unit.

Jeremy: There are plenty of areas where Denver can improve from their recent campaign. My No. 1 suggestion would be to commit to playing defense. While the Nuggets have had a reputation as a poor defensive team over the years due to their high points per game average, for much of the Carmelo era the Nuggets were a staple in the top ten of defensive efficiency. That changed in 2009-10 when the Nuggets sank to 16^th. This season Denver finished a pathetic 19^th in defensive efficiency, the lowest they have finished in that category in a decade. Denver has size, athleticism and young legs plus George Karl has proven he can coach defense. The Nuggets should be a fantastic defensive team and if they want to be successful in the future, they better make playing defense a priority.

Charlie: The Nuggets just need to keep doing what they’ve been doing — namely building a strong foundation around youth and athleticism. Denver has a good thing going as the kind of farm system where developing players can see their raw talent realized in the form of on-court success. It’s amazing to me how an often ridiculed player like JaVale McGee was able to make huge strides in such a short time and become legit in the basketball community’s eyes with a change of scenery. Beyond that, I just think the Nuggets need to continue adapting their style of play to the personnel and cutting ties with what they were traditionally known for during the Carmelo Anthony era. Even in the span of this one shortened season the Nuggets have gone from a fairly average rebounding team to one of the league’s elite. With a good locker room free of any troublesome egos, this team has the ability to be even more fundamentally sound and assuming they are able to develop their size a little more, the next step might be playing a little bit slower and perhaps even becoming a more defensive-minded team.

Our fellow TrueHoop cohorts over at Cowbell Kingdom have notified the network of a movie titled Small Market, Big Heart. It is an feature-length amateur film produced by Kings fans and bloggers which documents Sacramento’s attempt to keep the Kings stationed in the capitol of California for the foreseeable future. It was made on a budget of close to $10,000 which came from a kickstart campaign and will not gross a profit of any kind. This is nothing more than a all-out, last-ditch attempt by the city and its fans to keep the Kings in Sacramento and it’s done so in a poignant, passionate and artistic manner.

If you have the time, I strongly recommend you watch Small Market, Big Heart. Remember, many of the issues covered in this movie are ones Nuggets fans could potentially see down the road as part of a small market NBA franchise. It’s free to stream on YouTube. You can watch it at Cowbell Kingdom or at the movie’s website. We’d also encourage you to share this through social media, word of mouth or any other way you can think of, as the only way this movie is going to bring awareness to the rest of the world is through thoughtful people like you!

If you have anymore questions or comments, feel free to post them and we’ll try and get back to you in a timely fashion.

About a year ago I was approached by Charlie and Jeremy asking if I wanted to join RMC as a writer. Being a journalism student and a Nuggets enthusiast, I had been looking for some sort of opening to write about the sports, or the Nuggets, for quite some time. Needless to say, I was ecstatic to hear about their proposal and accepted without thinking twice.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous at first. I’d never written for a website or had my work published for a large group of people to see. But knowing the Nuggets inside and out, and being able to discuss my passion with those who felt the same way as I put me at ease. After only a few posts I already felt at home because I was speaking the same language as all of you  — Nuggets Nation language.

Over the last year I feel like I’ve made monumental steps forward with my writing. I’m sure Charlie feels the same way. The crazy thing is that you’ve all been there to witness it right by our side. I don’t necessarily know what the experience has been like from the outside looking in, but I do know that from my point of view, this has been an unforgettable 15 months.

So, thanks. Thank you all, whomever you may be, no matter how many times you’ve made RMC a part of your day — we just want to say thanks. We greatly appreciate it. Without you, this thing isn’t possible. We could write all day long but without anybody to share our experience with, it just doesn’t mean anything. The community that’s migrated to our site since its inception, and especially over the last year and a half, means the world to us. You guys are Roundball Mining Company and we hope you’ll continue to mold the site with your excellent insight and candid storytelling that you can’t find anywhere else.

Over the next several weeks we’ll have all sorts of analysis coming your way. From 3-on-3s to final grades to season recaps — it’s all going to be here. And as always, RMC is your No. 1 site to visit for draft analysis which should get underway sometime later this month.

In the meantime, we hope you enjoy the rest. It’s been a long, roller coaster-ride of a season and though it ended prematurely in the eyes of Nuggets fans everywhere, it was still one of the more enjoyable seasons I can remember being a part of.

We look forward to hearing from all of you in the future and once again, thanks for everything!

Sincerely,

Kalen, Charlie and Jeremy

It Was All a (Nuggets) Dream

Open eyes thinking,

Staring at the ceiling,

Nuggets.

Denver is everywhere,

She has on a blotchy blue and white dress,

The city buildings reach out to touch it.

Going through the motions,

The whole day is monotonous,

8:30…

Two more hours,

Brushing fingers through clothes,

Finding the Ty Lawson throwback.

Hello Trepidation,

Anticipation,

Fear.

7 something,

Not much longer,

KG is ballin…

The whistle finally blows,

Game 6,

Delay the inevitable.

It’s so fast,

Everything’s moving so fast,

Press pause so I can breathe.

Mozgov does play physical defense,

Can’t do anything on offense,

But that defense is real.

And so goes Ty Lawson,

The racecar,

Speeding around the track.

Shots are dropping from everywhere,

A rainy storm builds inside the Pepsi Center,

Tickle that net.

Something is different,

You can feel it,

George must have prayed to the basketball Gods.

The racecar again,

Those wheels are turning and turning,

And burning.

He’s daring the others to try and keep up,

“Come on!” he says,

“Let’s go!” he says.

Kobe is sick,

Said his room looks like a scene from The Exorcist,

But Ty Lawson is the one turning heads.

Manimal is on the prowl,

He’s hungry,

He wants to eat rebounds for dinner.

And Corey Brewer,

The mystery,

Walking on toothpicks.

They bottled him up with all the energy of the Cosmos,

Then uncorked it before the game,

People see a “shooting star” at Pepsi Center.

The arena is illuminated with splendor,

Speckled white stars throughout,

Glistening.

Bucket after bucket,

One, two, three,

The rim swallows them all.

A tableau of purple and gold bodies,

With heads of pallor,

Frozen.

How long we’ve waited for this moment,

Seems like,

Forever?

We’ve dreamed about it,

Oh how we’ve dreamed,

With vague imagination.

But now it’s happening,

Vividly,

Blissfully.

Blue and yellow bodies,

They stand in triumph,

Topped with howling heads.

Bright eyes,

And smiles,

Radiating with unbridled amusement.

This game,

This series,

Has been plucked from our dreams.

No matter what happens next,

Good or bad,

We will awaken.

But the dream will always live on,

And that moment,

Will always be real.

Not much is known at this point in time. Details are sure to emerge as times passes. What we do know is that this is just about the worst time for these issues to surface, yet Birdman is still innocent until proven guilty. Obviously things don’t look good, at all, but it’s important to refrain from jumping straight to conclusions until more information is gathered.

However, heading into game six I have objectively found several reasons why Nuggets fans can feel optimistic encouraged about Denver’s chances to force a game seven.

The Nuggets are scoring in the paint.  The Lakers sole focus on defense is to try to clog the lane and prevent Denver from scoring easy baskets.  In game one, they were relatively successful, mostly thanks to 15 blocked shots.  Even so, half of Denver’s 88 points came in the paint.  While most teams would live to say they scored half their points in the paint, 50% does not cut it for Denver.

The good news is they have surpassed that mark in each of the next four games.  Over the course of the season Denver has seen 51.6% of their points produced in the paint.  In game two, they scored 60% of their points in the paint. In their game three win it actually dropped to 52.5% although that was still a higher ratio than their season average.  Game four saw 59.1% of their points scored in the lane and in their game five victory the figure was 56.9%.

Despite the Lakers’ best efforts, Denver is getting easy buckets.

Sticking with offense we will remain objective and consider one of my favorite laws of nature, the law of averages.  The Nuggets are a bad three point shooting team, but not as horrible as they have shown so far in the playoffs.  Denver has made only 20 three pointers in the five games and are converting on only 23.0% of their attempts from downtown.  The law of averages dictates that has to change.  The Nuggets are averaging 17.4 three point attempts per game.  If we assume they keep that pace they would have to make 14 of those 17 in order to push their success rate back up to their regular season percentage of 33.2%.  Of course, it will most likely take time for their percentage to return to that which is expected.  So while making 14 threes is probably out of the question, consider Denver’s previous low for made threes over a five game stretch this season is 22 in games five through nine. Over the next three games the Nuggets cashed in on 30 made three pointers including their season best 11-18 performance against the Nets.

True the Lakers are much better than the Nets, but with their defensive focus on clogging the lane, Denver has had plenty of open looks from downtown and a breakout game or two or three is on the horizon.

Shifting to personnel, the Lakers are allowing Denver to play Lawson and Miller together, which plays right into George Karl’s hands.  Nuggets fans have groused all season long about the small lineups that Karl prefers.  However, there is no doubt that Lawson and Miller have been probably the two most effective Nuggets in the series.  Fans were horrified at the prospect of Miller guarding Kobe Bryant, but thanks to the lineups that Mike Brown has been using, that fear has not come to fruition.  Due to the fact that Danilo Gallinari has proven that he can at least bother Kobe, Miller can be hidden on Steve Blake, Devin Ebanks or Matt Barnes.

What was supposed to be a major issue for Denver has turned into an even bigger strength.  According to the NBA Stats Tool, Ty Lawson and Andre Miller are Denver’s best duo having outscored the Lakers by 37 points when they are on the court together.  When adjusted to plus/minus per 48 minutes, they are fourth best of all Nugget duos who have been on the court together for more than two minutes with a plus 22.4.  Say what you want about the two point guard lineup, but it is causing the Lakers major headaches.

Sticking with lineups, my biggest concern heading into the series was how Kenneth Faried would survive against Pau Gasol, despite his importance to Denver since being inserted into the rotation I even considered that Denver might be better off bringing Faried off the bench.  Boy was I wrong and glad about it.  Faried has played Gasol to a virtual standstill.  Gasol has a playoff PER of 19.12, fueled by an insanely high assist rate for a PF/C.  Faried is right there with him posting a very solid 18.17 PER while posting better numbers in the categories such as shooting percentages and rebound rates that you look for out of your bigs.

Gasol has begun to take Faried on the block more frequently over the previous couple of games, but Faried has held his ground and Gasol has settled for soft turnaround jumpers instead of trying to aggressively attack the basket where his length is a true advantage over the Manimal.  Faried has been so good that the biggest problem with Denver’s game five win was Karl’s decision to sit Faried in place of Harrington. Faried inexplicably did not play for the final 15 minutes.

Hopefully, that will not become a trend as Faried has proven he can hang with the big boys under the bright lights.

One more lineup observation is that while the two point guard lineup is as prevalent as ever, Karl has actually beginning to shun small ball lineups and the reason is JaVale McGee has earned Karl’s trust.  In game five Denver played without a center on the floor for a mere 2:10.  Who knows what Karl will do in a do or die game six, especially if McGee struggles in his first couple of stints on the court.  Still the evidence points to Karl’s believe that Denver must have a center on the floor at all times against the Lakers.

Finally a couple of Laker observations.  First, Kobe has continued his Pepsi Center struggles in the playoffs.  His EFG% is 10.6% lower in Denver than in L.A. and his TS% is even worse as Kobe has seen a 14.2% differential in his True Shooting Percentage in Denver versus L.A.  Fortunately, his usage rate is basically unchanged despite his atrocious efficiency in the Mile High City.

Finally, we get to the most criticized player in the series, Andrew Bynum.  Bynum’s body language has grown considerably worse throughout the series.  In game one, he only attempted ten shots, but received so many accolades for his triple double that a slight reduction in shots was of no concern to him.  In game two his shots spiked up to 20 as he dominated the Nuggets for 27 points.  Things have changed since game two as Denver has committed to always having a big body on him as well as swarming him as soon as he touches the ball on the block.  His shot attempts have dropped to 11 in game three, 12 in game four and a miniscule 8 in game five.  Bynum was getting visibly upset when his teammates chose not to enter the ball into the post on several occasions in game five and if Denver can continue to frustrate him, he will become less and less dedicated to his duties on defense.

There you have it.  Not optimism, just a few reasons to be encouraged through solid analysis backed by both empirical evidence and raw statistics.  The Lakers are going to come out in game six with more intensity than Denver has seen from them so far in this series.  The Nuggets have done a great job of increasing their own level of intensity following their rude awakening in game one.

I only have one more thing to add…enjoy game six Nuggets fans!