2014-15 Denver Nuggets minutes projectiions: Don’t expect the rookies to get much burn

 

Predicting the distribution of minutes for any NBA team is in many ways a doomed venture from the start.

One need look no further than the 2013-14 Nuggets to find ample evidence of a team’s inherent unpredictability. A whopping four torn ACLs, an unexpected player-coach meltdown involving seasoned veteran Andre Miller, the addition of Aaron Brooks and Jan Vesely who averaged 29 and 17 minutes per game respectively – none of these things could reasonably have been foreseen by even the sagest NBA experts. Adding an additional layer of complication (one bound to persist in 2014-15) was the large number of middling players competing for limited minutes on an overstuffed roster.

Yet at least one seemingly irresistible force does tend to propel the allotment of minutes toward a predictable pattern: talent. (more…)

Report: Mike Miller visiting Nuggets

Veteran free agent Mike Miller will be visiting the Denver Nuggets on Sunday and Monday, according to ESPN Radio 92.9FM in Memphis.

Denver was rumored to have interest in the 34 year-old shooter, but a two-day recruiting pitch seems to confirm that the Nuggets are closing in on a serious bid to sign Miller, possibly to a multi-year contract.

The news is surprising for a number of reasons. First, Denver already has 14 out of the maximum 15 roster spots earmarked for new and returning players. Second, wing depth didn’t appear to be an area of need for the current roster. This led many to speculate Denver would be relatively quiet in free agency, perhaps using the final roster spot on a third point guard and moving forward with the roster as-is.

Miller seems like an odd fit on the surface, but digging a bit deeper reveals how the sharpshooter might fit on a Nuggets team looking to make some noise the Western Conference right away. With some minor tweaks to the roster, Denver could free up the flexibility and positional logjam to make Miller a contributing piece. Here’s a cursory look at the main arguments for and against adding Miller to this current Nuggets squad.
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Repercussions of moving in different directions

A few nights ago I was watching college basketball. This year’s impressive crop of college freshman were on display, all turning in big performances. One of those players was Jabari Parker. My goodness, Jabari Parker. I’ve been watching college basketball with an eye focused on scouting for three to four years now, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player dominate the way he has right from the start. And the crazy thing? Jabari Parker isn’t even ranked as the top prospect on the few scouting websites I trust most — which kinda got me thinking about the Nuggets, as I often do in life when I start thinking deeply about anything. I pondered the Nuggets draft situation this upcoming year, the fact the Nuggets have only one pick instead of two — which they originally had but changed when they sent one of those picks to Orlando in the Arron Afflalo trade — and how the Nuggets lost a lot more than just Andre Iguodala when he left this past summer. But what I thought about most, what I kept coming back to, was that…

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Five things to watch for this season

As the 2013-14 NBA season approaches, many questions hover around the Denver Nuggets. Almost everything that made the team successful in years past (especially last season) has now departed. There’s no more George Karl, no more Masai Ujiri, no more Andre Iguodala — no more certainty. There’s still a deep and talented roster, however the players that comprise it are less known commodities and more bags of speculation and temptation. The 2013-14 Denver Nuggets are, more than anything, a team mired with uncertainty. Though five topics of concern are presented below, this list could very well expand to seven or even 10. But in honor of brevity and odd numbers, here are the five most compelling storylines to watch for this season.

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2013 salary cap and luxury tax status, part 2: questions and answers

Q: Which players have the Nuggets signed for 2013-14, and what are their total combined salaries?

A: Based on the latest reported offers, the Nuggets have $60.3 million dedicated to 13 players: Lawson, A. Miller, Foye, Fournier, Hamilton, Gallinari, Chandler, Q. Miller, Faried, Hickson, Arthur, McGee, and Randolph. (Foye and Hickson cannot officially be signed until July 10.) The salary cap is $58.6 million.

Q: Can the Nuggets still sign players even though they’re over the cap?
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End of an era: One fan’s struggle to embrace a Hall of Fame coach

I can’t lie. I’ve thought about writing this article for years. Years. After each futile, heartless, disappointing exit in the first round of the playoffs, I was so ready to write this article that I couldn’t sleep. This year was no different. This year I wanted it just as bad as I have for the last several years. And yet, here it is, less than a week since Karl was let go, and I’m not sure I even want to write it anymore.

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Roundball Roundtable: On Ujiri’s departure

Masai Ujiri leaving the Denver Nuggets has the potential to be one of the most devastating franchise decisions the Kroenke family has ever made. Conversely, the Nuggets might hire the next Masai Ujiri and be just fine. Either way, the decision to let him speak with the Raptors and ultimately sign with his former Canadian squad said something about the Nuggets as a franchise. It said something about the Kroenkes and it said something about the order of the Nuggets’ priorities. Our writers have a few ideas about what that something is, which we’ve laid out below in our latest Roundball Roundtable.

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Denver Nuggets off-season to-do list

For the third year in a row Roundball Mining Company has arranged an off-season priority list for the Denver Nuggets. The following items are arranged from least to most important. They are moves which the Nuggets would greatly benefit from, yet none are mandatory. After winning 2012-13 NBA Executive of the Year, it’s safe to assume Nuggets general manager Masai Ujiri will do everything in his power to improve the Nuggets once again — that is, as long as he’s still around.

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Staking A Claim: The Nuggets Recent Success

Staking a Claim is a new column that will be taking a look at all things Nuggets through the eyes of an outsider. As those who follow me on Twitter know I am a Bucks fan, so it will give Nuggets fans an opportunity to see things through the eyes of someone who follows the team closely but isn’t necessarily a fan. Please leave any subjects that you would like to see addressed in the future in the comments below or send them to me on Twitter @Matt_Cianfrone.

As I have gotten to know Nuggets fans more in depth one thing keeps coming up when complaints get voiced, the teams recent run of making the playoffs before flaming out in the first round. While there is understandable frustration, especially as the possibility of it occurring again this season is there, though looking less and less likely, I ask Nuggets fans to do one thing.

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Rapid Reaction: Los Angeles Clippers 112, Denver Nuggets 100

Denver Nuggets 100 Final

Recap | Box Score

112 Los Angeles Clippers
Danilo Gallinari, SF 24 MIN | 1-10 FG | 5-5 FT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 7 PTS | +3

Gallo has been about as inconsistent as you can be to start the season. In seven of the last 10 games he’s scored under 10 points four times and over 20 three times. His shooting stroke seems to be the root of his problems. When he’s hitting shots, everything is great; when he’s not, he’s virtually useless. Gallo is so talented in so many ways, which makes it all the more frustrating seeing him pigeonhole himself into a one-dimensional shooter’s role.

Kenneth Faried, SF 33 MIN | 3-9 FG | 0-0 FT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 6 PTS | -4

Faried is another enigma on the season. He didn’t have a bad game but he started off on pace to have an epic one — then it was as if his motor ran out of gas in only five minutes time. This is becoming quite the trend with Faried. His energy just isn’t what it was most of last year.

Kosta Koufos, C 27 MIN | 8-8 FG | 0-0 FT | 10 REB | 1 AST | 16 PTS | -4

Koufos was the Nuggets’ best player. That’s basically all you need to know to figure out how this game ended. He’s been steadily improving throughout the year and is now legitimately giving McGee a run for his money as to who’s the best center on the team. His defense and toughness were especially impressive against the Clippers.

Ty Lawson, PG 32 MIN | 5-11 FG | 4-6 FT | 3 REB | 5 AST | 15 PTS | -8

It’s hard to dock Lawson too much as he was one of the only players actually trying to make something happen. His passes need to be more precise but other than that he was pretty solid.

Andre Iguodala, SG 27 MIN | 4-9 FG | 1-2 FT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 9 PTS | -1

I still can’t figure this one out. Anybody know what the deal is with Iguodala? Please, share your secret because right now I’m dumbfounded. I knew Nuggets fans overvalued him from the start but I really thought he’d be a lot more impressive than what he’s shown thus far. Against the Clippers he was nearly lifeless. His nine points were a result of easy fast-break points, and that’s about all he did.

Anthony Randolph, PF 4 MIN | 2-3 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 0 AST | 4 PTS | +6

He’s clearly talented. He’s played well this season and had a few nice buckets against the Clippers.

Jordan Hamilton, SF 17 MIN | 7-9 FG | 0-2 FT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 16 PTS | -4

Hamilton was the second best player tonight (maybe the best?) and tied Koufos for the team lead in points despite having played only 17 minutes. If this was not a “wake up” game for Karl and the rest of his teammates, then I don’t know what is. Hamilton played with confidence against the Clippers and it showed. Not only was he scoring at a rate which none of his teammates could match, but his decision-making and vision were in top form. He made some nice passes and didn’t make the “rookie” mistakes he’s been known to fall victim to. The fact is: On nights like this, when nobody is stepping up to score, Hamilton is a great option to play 30-plus minutes because scoring is all he knows.

Quincy Miller, SF 4 MIN | 0-0 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 0 PTS | +6

Miller had a few nice dishes and played good defense. As always, I’d love to see what he could do with a few games of solid playing time.

Corey Brewer, SF 21 MIN | 0-3 FG | 2-2 FT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 2 PTS | -29

Brewer was just not on. He’ll have games like this every now and then where he’s totally MIA.

Timofey Mozgov, C 4 MIN | 0-0 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 1 AST | 0 PTS | +6

Mozgov got hit in the face with the ball because he couldn’t handle the speed of a pass. That’s all I remember from his run.

JaVale McGee, C 19 MIN | 4-7 FG | 1-2 FT | 6 REB | 0 AST | 9 PTS | -23

The stats don’t tell just how frustrating this game was from a fan’s standpoint. McGee made numerous decisions (mostly passes) where I couldn’t even begin to understand what he was trying to do. He also had several incredible blocks and nice post-ups, but I could not escape how bad his decisions were on this night.

Andre Miller, PG 23 MIN | 4-9 FG | 4-5 FT | 2 REB | 6 AST | 12 PTS | -14

Miller started off the game great with lots of aggressions but seemed to fade as it went on. Still, it’s nice having someone who gets up for big games on a consistent basis.

Evan Fournier, SG 4 MIN | 2-2 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 0 AST | 4 PTS | +6

Fournier was impressive as usual. Not a lot of time, but he made the most of it.

George Karl

Many players received bad grades tonight so it doesn’t make much sense to reward Karl. He’s the one who devises this skewed game-plan of being satisfied with playing like crap on the road as long as you can win most of your home games. While the Nuggets have had a tough road schedule, I still don’t understand how a team this deep and talented can be happy with a 7-13 road record. On a different (but similar) note, I ran into my old high school soccer coach a few days ago and he said he hates watching the Nuggets because they always have an excuse to lose. While the Clippers are on one hell of a tear these days, I can’t help but think Karl deemed this loss as considered “OK.”

Rapid Reaction: Denver Nuggets 100 San Antonio Spurs 126

Denver Nuggets 100 Final
Recap | Box Score
126 San Antonio Spurs
Danilo Gallinari, SF 29 MIN | 7-13 FG | 1-1 FT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 15 PTS | -2

It’s a shame Gallo’s best overall effort yet had to come in such a lousy game. Gallo was attacking early and looking to be aggressive while the rest of the team seem to lay down as quick as possible. This should be a normal so-so night for Gallo, not one of his best offensive outings of the year. Defensively, Gallo was the only starter to approach a respectable level of pride and effort so he gets a pass.

Kenneth Faried, SF 27 MIN | 5-8 FG | 4-6 FT | 5 REB | 0 AST | 14 PTS | -15

He got into foul trouble and really couldn’t get a hold on DeJuan Blair early. At some point the Nuggets will have to be competitive in a game without a double-double from their fourth scoring option. Faried had another efficient 14 points and has been the Nuggets’ best offensive player this season.

Kosta Koufos, C 19 MIN | 1-3 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS | -21

Awful. There’s just no two ways about it. He got off to a horrendous start and played most of the first quarter anyway, setting the tone for Denver’s laughable paint defense the rest of the night. He was slow to loose balls and looked just plain out of it most of the night.

Ty Lawson, PG 35 MIN | 5-13 FG | 3-5 FT | 2 REB | 5 AST | 13 PTS | -29

Ty played 35 minutes again and scored this time, so if it’s progress you’re looking for there you go. Ty also had 5 turnovers, bricked his first two free throw attempts and just sort of padded his stats in garbage time while racking up a -29

Andre Iguodala, SG 28 MIN | 3-8 FG | 3-4 FT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 9 PTS | -13

A truly invisible game out of Iguodala, who was not looking to get involved on either end and grew increasingly disinterested as the beating got worse. Iguodala has to show more poise and leadership in difficult circumstances like tonight.

Jordan Hamilton, SF 15 MIN | 1-5 FG | 1-2 FT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 4 PTS | -10

Consider this grade an incomplete, because he played about 6 scoreless minutes in the first half before being benched and never returning again til extended garbage time. The Nuggets just can’t seem decide if they want to play him or not while they try to fix their rotation.

Corey Brewer, SF 28 MIN | 4-9 FG | 3-4 FT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 13 PTS | 0

Brew put up solid numbers but wasn’t able to hit his rhythm when the Nuggets could have made it a competitive contest. He gambles a ton on defense and his inability to stay solid on that end of the floor makes him difficult to play when the Nuggets need to catch up or protect a lead.

Timofey Mozgov, C 13 MIN | 2-2 FG | 0-0 FT | 3 REB | 0 AST | 4 PTS | -22

Mozgov came in early after Faried picked up two fouls. Physically he was moving around much better than we’ve seen since training camp started, but Denver’s defense did not improve with him on the floor. It’s really tough to blame Mozgov for not being all over it in his first meaningful game of the year, but the Nuggets’ frontcourt desperately needed him while Koufos struggled through his worst game yet.

JaVale McGee, C 20 MIN | 6-10 FG | 0-0 FT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 12 PTS | -1

If there’s a bright spot in these losses it’s JaVale’s improving play off the bench. The last few games he’s come into pretty horrible situations and been able to do some positive things. McGee’s earned his minutes and looks ready for a little more run with the Nuggets’ top lineups.

Andre Miller, PG 19 MIN | 1-2 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 REB | 3 AST | 4 PTS | -14

Let’s be honest, he doesn’t look very in shape yet and will throw up a dud every once in a while as he gets ready to play the season. After a poor start to the first half Miller saw essentially all of his minutes in garbage time.

Evan Fournier, SG 8 MIN | 4-5 FG | 1-2 FT | 0 REB | 2 AST | 10 PTS | -3

The Nuggets trailed by 20 most of the night but didn’t insert Fournier till midway through the fourth, where Evan proceeded to pour in 10 quick points in the only quarter Denver managed to win. Evan could get a chance to earn minutes going forward with the Nuggets lineup currently in a state of utter disarray.

One Thing We Saw

  1. It’s hard to learn anything about the Nuggets when they don’t show up and compete with a professional attitude. This is a game in which they got behind early and just decided to pack it in at the first sign of trouble. A bad team showed up to a play good one tonight and the Nuggets honestly didn’t look like they belonged on the same floor. It’s no longer a matter of lineups and potential with this team — it’s about survival. Two tough road games remain on this trip before the Nuggets return home against GSW the day after Thanksgiving.

5-on-5: Iguodala trade talk

With a new contributor, Roundball Mining Company will likely be doing more 5-on-5 pieces in the coming days. This means more opportunities for you, the reader, to participate by being featured as the fifth analyst in this series of articles, however this can only be achieved by following each of us on Twitter. In our first of many new 5-on-5s we highlight, what else, but the Andre Iguodala trade. T.J. McBride joins us this time around, but don’t let that stop you from posting your answers to these five questions in the comments section below!
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adidas Nations Wrap-Up

Ready for something a little different? We’ll continue our extensive coverage of the Iguodala acquisition soon, but the long-awaited conclusion to the Dwight Howard saga presents a great opportunity to change gears a bit and recap the recently concluded 2012 adidas Nations.

As I mentioned in my earlier reports, this year’s Nations had plenty of Denver Nuggets connections despite not being an official NBA event. I caught up with high-school senior Isaac Hamilton, Jordan’s little brother and one of top recruits in the Los Angeles area. On a more somber note, I also witnessed Arron Afflalo attend one of his last official functions as representative of the Denver Nuggets. Here’s the full rundown of these stories and my impression of the talent showcased at the 2012 adidas Nations. (more…)

Trade details

Many readers have asked, specifically, what the Nuggets gave up and received in Friday’s trade. Though I still can’t find a single article that confirms all aspects of the trade, I have been able to gather bits and pieces from various sources across the Internet. Here are my findings:

Received: Andre Iguodala

Sent: Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, a 2013 second-round draft pick (via Golden State) and a 2014 first-round draft pick (either Denver’s own or via New York)

Both of the picks sent to Orlando may end up being ones the Nuggets obtained from New York in the Carmelo Anthony trade. The 2013 second-round pick is from Golden State while the 2014 first-round pick will either be Denver’s own, or New York’s. According to CBSSports.com’s Ken Berger, the 2014 first-round pick conveyed to Orlando will be the least desirable of the Nuggets two picks that year.

Looking towards the future, the Nuggets now have two picks in the 2013 NBA Draft: their own first rounder and a second-round, top-40 protected selection from the Portland Trailblazers. Denver’s own second-round pick is conveyed to the Phoenix Suns and is also top-40 protected. Assuming the Nuggets re-sign Ty Lawson, they will then have three roster openings from the expiring contracts of Julyan Stone, Timofey Mozgov and Corey Brewer. If the Nuggets retain both picks they will then be left with one open roster spot to sign a free agent, however given Masai Ujiri’s penchant for perpetual activity, there’s a good chance the team’s current roster and draft-pick situation will change yet again.

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A new hope for the Nuggets perimeter defense

One cold hard truth the Nuggets were going to have to reckon with sooner or later was the fact that last season their perimeter defense was among the worst – if not the worst – in the league. Although their 103.4 team defensive efficiency rating was a lower-middling 19th in the league, a deeper dig into the numbers confirms what any Nuggets fan who has been paying attention already knows: All season long, opponents drained 3-pointers at will.

The opponent shot location statistics at HoopData.com reveal that Denver put together a respectable interior defense. The Nuggets were 8th best in the league in defending at-rim shots, as their opponents made 61.6 percent of their attempts. Holding steady in 8th place at short range, Denver held its opponents to a percentage of 36.2. Mid-range defense found them faring even better, 5th best with opponents shooting 35.6 percent. But 15 feet out from the basket is where the good news abruptly ends.

In both long range 2-point and in 3-point shooting, the Nuggets were dead last in the league, allowing a long-two field goal percentage of 41.4 and an effective field goal percentage of 57.5 from beyond the arc. None of this should come as a surprise (more…)

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