No. 439: Melvin Ely

This far down the list, I think most people would be lying if they said, “Bingo, that’s the perfect spot for that guy,” because let’s be honest, whether you’d take the recently China-bound Melvin Ely, or former Nugget, Malik Allen (No. 465), at this point in time is really a toss up. Neither of these guys are going to see consistent minutes on any NBA roster, so it’s hard to evaluate who’s the better player at the moment. What we can do, however, is is look at former Roundball Big Board members, Josh Selby (No. 411), Charles Jenkins (No. 448), Jeremy Tyler (No. 441) and Iman Shumpert (No. 440) and say, “I’d definitely rather have those guys on my team than Melvin Ely or Malik Allen.” This is no slight on either Allen nor Ely, but the fact of the matter is, those two players have each already met the zenith of their respective careers while the rookies mentioned above have their entire NBA lives ahead of them. This doesn’t however take away from the fact that I found it strange that rookies were able to qualify for the #NBArank to begin with, being that none of them have played a minute in the NBA thus far.

Conclusion: N/A

No. 380: Jordan Hamilton

There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that Hamilton deserves, not only to be on this list — since rookies were deemed eligible — but to be ranked fairly high based on his production at Texas and in various competitions this summer. Hamilton finds himself ahead of anonymous NBA players like Antonio Daniels (No. 400), Samardo Samuels (No. 398) and Solomon Jones (No. 389), but behind marginally serviceable guys like Wayne Ellington (No. 364) and Pooh Jeter (No. 366). To me, this is perfectly fine. It’s subjective whether he should be ranked higher, or lower, but in the end I don’t think you can quibble too much with his position considering he beat out many other talented rookies along the way to No. 380.

Conclusion: Just right

No. 348: Kosta Koufos

To be quite honest, I was pleasantly surprised with Koufos’ ranking. It’s so easy, as an NBA fan, to hop on the bandwagon to lambaste the big, white “stiff,” without acknowledging the actual skill set it takes to make it in the NBA. I felt Koufos was undoubtedly primed for this consideration by our TrueHoop peers, but at No. 348, it appears he managed to avoided this label for the most part. As Nuggets fans, we got to see up close and personal what Koufos was capable of when he saw even the most marginal increase in playing time. Put simply: He wasn’t bad… at all. In fact, Koufos was quite impressive the last half of the season when he received extended minutes, which resulted in career highs in nearly every relevant statistical category imaginable on the offensive side of the ball. During the last three contests of the regular season when he saw around 20 minutes per game, Koufos averaged 14 points and seven rebounds per game on 72 percent shooting from the floor. Unfortunately this small sample size likely wont’ persuade #NBArank voters that Koufos deserves to be placed higher, and that’s probably how it should be. Though his on-court production might see an upswing in the future, right now Koufos is still largely unproven.

Conclusion: Just right (for the national audience), too low (for Nuggets fans)

No. 332: Gary Forbes

Each individual player — for the most part — has a random Twitter comment next to their ranking, exemplifying — for the most part — the general consensus the outside world has of that specific player. Gary Forbes Twitter attachment comes from @TheAkronHammer, who says, “Obviously this doesn’t take into account his 78-point game in the Hartford Pro-Am.” I would tend to agree, but I’d also add that it doesn’t take into account his excellent performance at the FIBA Americas Championship in which he outperformed many players listed higher on the #NBArank list, along the way to scoring a tournament-high 39 points against Canada. No, Forbes hasn’t seen a heavy dose of minutes while donning a Nuggets jersey, but on the rare occasion he does, Forbes displays a fairly well-rounded and solid overall game. With J.R. Smith now gone, many Nuggets fans, including myself, have been extremely boisterous in their desire to see Forbes re-signed. That alone says a lot about the un-drafted shooting guard from Panama. Just glancing at some of the names ahead of him, such as Keyon Dooling (No. 328), Fabricio Oberto, (No. 327) and Luke Walton (No. 318), it’s obvious he’s ranked a tad too low for my liking, as I’d take him over all three of those guys any day of the week. But again, I can’t complain too much, and for the most part the TrueHoop Network did a solid job of figuring out about where Forbes belongs.

Conclusion: Just right (for the national audience), way too low (for Nuggets fans)

No. 331: Kenneth Faried

Holy Moses, for the sake of all things… well… holy, where in the hell do I start? I’m not sure when Faried was ranked (was it right after the 2011 Draft that ballots were sent in, or what?), because clearly, and I mean CLEARLY, if you’ve been paying ANY attention whatsoever to the countless number of exhibition games played this summer during the lockout, you’d know for a fact that Kenneth Faried was the biggest steal in the Draft, and is without a doubt going to be a stud in the NBA! Sure, that might sound like a total homer proclamation from a fan who’s loved Faried since Day 1 and almost passed out when the Nuggets drafted him, but the facts simply don’t lie. We’ve chronicled Faried’s 2011 Summer Beastmode Tour since he first debuted at the Drew League in L.A., and it’s been nothing short of the most spectacular rookie display of all 60 players taken in the 2011 Draft. Faried has continuously blown away the Twitter Universe with each outing, garnering a myriad of new fans every time he’s stepped onto the court. He’s wowed experts, analysts and even division rival TrueHoop bloggers of the Denver Nuggets, who’ve given him way more credit than they should (joking, joking). He’s, to my knowledge, been the only rookie to make SportsCenter’s Top 10 Plays reel, not once, but TWICE, during a summer in which no professionally organized, NBA-sanctioned basketball is being played. So I wonder, how in the world can a guy who’s been this explosive, this relentless, this flat-out impressive, be ranked behind such players as Maurice Evans (No. 320), Kyrylo Fesenko (No. 310) and for God’s sake, Vladimir Radmanovic (No. 315)?!?! I would lend some breathing room to my fellow TrueHoop brotherhood had they ranked all rookies, in general, much lower, but somehow Tristan Thompson (No. 319) and Bismack Biyombo (No. 301) — both of whom have accomplished nothing this summer — are ranked directly ahead of Faried. To summarize: Faried’s ranking is the epitome of the flaws that lie nearly everywhere when trying to rank such a copious amount of NBA talent. There’s simply no way this position justifies just how good Faried already is, and will be in the NBA.

Conclusion: Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too low

No. 306: Timofey Mozgov

How Mozgov finds himself ranked above Faried is almost criminal, yet at the same time, justifiable, considering the other players surrounding him. Guys like Kwame Brown (N0. 304) and Mike Bibby (No. 307) are basically in the same category as “The Moz”; the difference, however, between him and many of the players in his realm, is age. Mozgov is young, tall and fairly talented, kind of like the more generic version, and tag-line, of Amare Stoudemire (Standing Tall and Talented). Mozgov still has tons of room for improvement, but has shown flashes of high basketball IQ on a number of occasions. Should Nene flee in free agency after hell freezes over and the NBA lockout concludes, Mozgov will almost certainly move into the starting center role for the Nuggets, unless of course they sign a more established NBA center such as Samuel Dalembert (No. 112). If he can hold his own as a starter, Mozgov will most likely vault to much higher position in next year’s #NBArank, as occupying the starting center position on any NBA team is a position most would deem impressive, and credible.

Conclusion: Just right

No. 168: Al Harrington

Unlike Kosta Koufos and Gary Forbes, I feel the rest of the NBA community has a firm grasp on who Al Harrington is as a player. Surrounded by guys like Boris Diaw (No. 161), Mike Miller (No. 169) and Corey Maggette (No. 162), Al Harrington seems to be right where he belongs: among guys who, at one point in their careers have been unquestionable starters, but now are crossing the void into a more role-player oriented disposition. Big Al can still go out and get you 15 points on any given night, and would even be a solid starter on many NBA teams, but the fact that he has no chance whatsoever of beating out Danilo Gallinari — a career 14 points per game scorer — for the starting small forward gig of the Denver Nuggets says a lot about where he stands at this point in time in his career. At 31, Harrington could go on to have a couple more big years before his career fizzles out, but the odometer is certainly increasing in digits, especially considering how many miles he’s already put on.

Conclusion: Nearly perfect

No. 159: Chris Andersen

At first, No. 159 seemed a bit high for “The Birdman.” Averaging just about five points and five rebounds per game isn’t much; but numbers were never the reason Birdman made it in the NBA to begin with. This guy’s passion for the game, his energy, his explosiveness — are remarkable. I’ve seen Birdman single-handedly win games for the Nuggets (yes, you heard that correctly) and change the entire landscape of the Nuggets in-game mentality with a mighty block. He has the ability to redefine the paradigm of any individual game with his energy alone, especially at home. Though injuries and age have placed a steady draft in front of the Birdman’s path of flight, his wings haven’t been clipped just yet, and I stand by my claim that the Birdman is one of the very best, and most important role players in all of basketball.

Conclusion: Just right

No. 110: J.R. Smith

What is there to say about J.R. that hasn’t already been said 1,000 times before? He’s an enigma, anomaly, prodigy, disappointment, always-has-been, never-will-be, knucklehead and reliable asset all rolled into one. He’s what I love about the NBA, and conversely, what I hate about it. Yet for all the grief J.R. gets, I personally don’t believe he gets enough credit either. You see, in the NBA maybe more than any sport, we’re always waiting, salivating, for some guy to “break out.” Though nearly eight years have passed since J.R. joined the Nuggets, we’re still waiting on him to become that All-Star caliber guy we all know he is. It’s fascinating to be honest with you — the way each and every year Nuggets fans from across the globe predict how this year will be different, how this year J.R. will finally break out of his shell and morph into a consistent scoring machine. But it never happened, and it never will. J.R. is who he is. He’ll always be inconsistent, he’ll always be a knucklehead and he’ll always do things that drive coaches crazy. But this is the NBA, and the year is 2011 — that type of behavior is almost protocol nowadays. So let’s forget about what J.R. isn’t for a moment, and acknowledge what he is: a bench player, and maybe even a starting shooting guard on the right team (remember, J.R. Smith, for all intensive purposes was the starting shooting guard on the 2009 Nuggets squad that made it to the Western Conference Finals) who can go out and put up 20-plus points on any given night… easily. Glancing at the other guards surrounding J.R. in the #NBArank is actually quite interesting. Guys like Aaron Brooks (No. 118), D.J. Augustin (No. 119), Baron Davis (No. 106) and Trevor Ariza (No. 113, not a guard by the way) all have worse field goal percentages than he does, yet none of them obtain the bad wrap for being a “chucker” that J.R. gets, and absolutely none of them are as lethal on the offensive side of the ball either. Even moving into the Top 100 for example, O.J. Mayo (No. 93) averaged not only a worse field goal percentage than J.R. last season, but less points, steals and rebounds, not to mention more turnovers — all in more minutes time. I’m not necessarily saying that J.R. is a better player than Mayo, rather, just pointing out the facts. In summary: J.R. lives under a double-standard because of his character. He’s wild, he’s irresponsible, he’s had his fair share of run-ins with the law off the court, but the fact is, he’s just as talented and gifted as almost anybody on it.

Conclusion: Just about right, but can vary depending on the day

No. 102: Kenyon Martin

Again, just as is the case with J.R., I feel K-Mart is a guy who’s value takes a hit due to his image. I really don’t think people understand the kind of impact this guy has on the court when fully healthy. He’s as mean, and intimidating of a players as you will ever find in the NBA, and can transform any given team’s fortitude simply with his presence alone. I don’t care what anybody says, Kenyon Martin’s one-on-one defense is some of the best in the entire NBA, and quite possibly the best of any power forward — Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett included. I mentioned the role J.R. played on that 2009 Western Conference Finals team, but if you want to know the real reason the Nuggets were so tough to beat, look no further than Kenyon Martin. It’s really too bad K-Mart decided to sign in China this past month, as he would have made an excellent addition to a title-contending team this season, and still could in time for the Playoffs, I guess. The bottom line: There are a lot of players around K-Mart in the #NBArank that you could place on a title contender such as the Heat, and none would have the impact K-Mart would. I’m sorry, but there’s no way I’d take J.J. Barea (No. 92) or Roy Hibbert (No. 96) over K-Mart, even at this point in his career. No way.

Conclusion: Too low

Stay tuned, as we’ll reveal our analysis for the Denver Nuggets who managed to crack the Top 100 of ESPN’s #NBArank in Part 2 of this series.

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1. Kenneth Faried

Estimated availability: 35 percent

Greatest strength: Rebounding, defense

Concerns: Offensive ability

Best case scenario: Denis Rodman

Followers of this blog know how high we’ve been on Faried since Day 1. His greatest strengths have been the Nuggets most glaring weaknesses for years. A four-year student-athlete, Faried would likely be able to contribute right off the bat and patch up the Nuggets rebounding woes for many seasons to come. Unfortunately for Nuggets fans, Faried’s stock has sky-rocketed over the last few months, and the most illustrious draft analysts (Chad Ford and Jonathan Givony) have him going to the division rival Trailblazers just one pick prior to ours. If Faried does however manage to find his way past the Trailblazers, to put it simply: Nuggets fans should be ecstatic.

2. Jeremy Tyler

Estimated availability: 80 percent

Greatest strength: Athleticism, potential

Concerns: Attitude

Best case scenario: LaMarcus Aldridge

Tyler is undoubtedly a prospect that raises more questions than he does answers. Standing 6-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and incredible athleticism to boot, Tyler is the prototypical franchise center every NBA team dreams of… physically at least. Conversely, what lies between his ears is more of an enigma. But recently, Tyler has shown a revived sense of dedication and professionalism to the game of basketball, which has resulted in many teams considering him in the mid to late-first round. The Nuggets have to be one of these teams, as the chance to land a center as talented as Tyler does not come along that often. Bottom line: I can’t remember the last time somebody with the skill set and physical attributes this kid possesses let an attitude problem totally derail their career. At worse, Tyler is another freakishly talented athlete (a la J.R. Smith and Allen Iverson) that causes George Karl to lose more hair than he already has, while simultaneously helping us reach the 50-win plateau in the process.

3. Nikola Vucevic

Estimated availability: 40 percent

Greatest strength: Size, skill level

Concerns: Athleticism

Best case scenario: Vlade Divac

Vucevic finds his way to No. 3 on Roundball’s Big Board for strictly one reason: his rare combination of size and versatility. His potential is relatively grounded, his athleticism — mundane, but at a legitimate 7-feet with shoes on and a skill set not often paired with his frame, Vucevic is an enticing package. Although other diminutive prospects might offer more production down the road, I continuously find myself coming back to the old aphorism that size matters in the NBA. But what I like most about the idea of having Vucevic on the Nuggets, is the fact that he’d be an excellent contrast to our other bigs. While Nene, Birdman, Mozgov and Koufos thrive relatively close to the basket, Vucevic has the ability to stretch the floor, evident by his 35 percent shot-making ability from downtown last year at USC. Further evidence of his versatility includes his averages of 1.6 assists, 1.4 blocks and PAC 10-leading 10.3 rebounds per game.

4. Marshon Brooks

Estimated availability: 25 percent

Greatest strength: Scoring

Concerns: None

Best case scenario: Joe Johnson with shades of Manu Ginobili

With so much uncertainty surrounding J.R. Smith, and even the slight possibility of Afflalo not returning, shooting guard is an area of need for the Nuggets and Brooks is one of the best in the entire draft. But before you accuse Roundball of placing Brooks at No. 4  solely based on need, realize that (A) he’s one of the fastest risers in this year’s draft, (B) he might very well go down as the best shooting guard in this year’s draft, (C) he’s got an extremely impressive body of work and (D) he’s drawn comparison to Kobe, Jamaal Crawford and Nick Young — all of which have averaged at least 17 points per game for a full season in their NBA careers. Of all the prospects who managed to land a spot on the Nuggets Big Board 2.0, Brooks likely has the best chance of being selected before the 22nd pick, but if he is still available, he’d be hard to pass up on.

5. Charles Jenkins

Estimated availability: 85 percent

Greatest strength: Shooting efficiency

Concerns: Inflated numbers due to level of competition

Best case scenario: Jamaal Crawford meets Rodney Stuckey

There’s a really good chance that by the time the Nuggets select, everyone above our No. 5 ranked player will already be off the board, therefore, this player presents a very real possibility of being drafted by the Nuggets. Jenkins was detailed in Roundball’s most recent Prospecting column in which he received the prestigious honor (*sarcasm*) of being ranked as the No. 1 point guard prospect next in line to replace the disgruntled Raymond Felton. As mentioned there, Jenkins’ strength is his scoring, in which he manages to take advantage of by using a copious amount of different methods. From creating off the dribble, to spotting up outside the arc, to executing the mid-range game with precise accuracy — Jenkins can do it all, and would be a great fit next to Ty Lawson in the two-point guard lineup Karl is seemingly obsessed with.

6. Josh Selby

Estimated availability: 70 percent

Greatest strength: Scoring, athleticism

Concerns: Character

Best case scenario: Monta Ellis

If team needs were totally thrown out of the picture, Selby might very well be atop our big board. In terms of being an NBA athlete, this kid’s got it all: scoring, athleticism, speed, ball handling, etc. There’s really nothing Selby can’t do on the floor. The only problem: We kind of have this guy named… um… I don’t know if you’ve heard of him, but… Ty Lawson, who does everything Selby can but better (almost), and he’s already established himself as an NBA franchise point guard, which isn’t an easy thing to do. The dilemma with the Nuggets is whether or not they want to draft strictly based on the “BPA” (Best Player Available) strategy, or make team needs a priority as well. When you’re drafting outside the lottery this is an extremely tough call to make, as –unlike in the lottery — it’s much harder to distinguish between the guys that offer a tremendous amount of upside and the guys that would be solid additions to your team based on collegiate accomplishments. Nevertheless, Selby looks like one of the very few that has that type of exceptional upside.

7. Tobias Harris

Estimated availability: 40 percent

Greatest strength: Versatility, maturity

Concerns: Athleticism

Best case scenario: Lamar Odom

Of all the players outside Faried, I’d say Tobias Harris is the most likely player destined to be donning a powder blue Nuggets jersey this fall… err.. whenever the 2011-12 NBA season gets underway. It’s been reported that the Nuggets are extremely interested in the utility man out of Tennessee, even going so far as to invite him back for an additional one-on-one workout after his initial visit. Though I’ve admittedly never been the biggest fan of Harris — if only for the simple fact that small forward is the last position we need to be concerning ourselves with (see: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Al Harrington) — I’m starting to warm up to the idea of drafting him after repeatedly hearing how impressed scouts are with his game. At only 18 years of age and with a vast amount of growth yet to be had — both physically and skill-wise — the potential of packaging Felton with Chandler, then grooming Harris behind Gallinari seems enticing as any strategy the Nuggets brass could concoct. Will this master plan soon come to fruition? All signs are pointing towards “yes,” but in the end, only time will tell.

8. Iman Shumpert

Estimated availability: 85 percent

Greatest strength: Athleticism, defense

Concerns: Outside shot

Best case scenario: Shannon Brown meets Tony Allen

I can’t, for the life of me, figure out why Shumpert isn’t ranked higher in most mock drafts. Chad Ford doesn’t even have him slated to go in the first round, and only after he had his notoriously impressive showing in Denver did Draft Express move him — although briefly — into the top 20 (since then, they’ve had him going to the Nuggets for quite some time). He’s the best athlete in this draft bar none, he’s one of the best defenders, his versatility is up there with guys like Harris and Leonard, and yet, Shumpert can’t seem to catch a break even while he continues to impress in team workouts. Granted, his shooting and overall shot selection is a bit questionable, but you’d be hard pressed to find another player asked to carry the bulk of his team’s offense who’s shot selection isn’t questionable. My whole deal: Elite athleticism, a penchant to play defense and natural basketball instincts are all things that can’t be taught; shooting on the other hand, simply takes a lot of practice. Just ask Derrick Rose.

9. Reggie Jackson

Estimated availability: 85 percent

Greatest strength: Athleticism (as you can see from above)

Concerns: Knee issues

Best case scenario: Jrue Holiday

Truth be told, Jackson is as solid of a prospect as the Nuggets could possibly hope to get with the No. 22 pick in the Draft. He likely won’t be a home run — rather a solid double — but at 22 could end up being a steal when it’s all said and done. OK, enough with the innuendo. The point is, I like Jackson… a lot. From what I can see he has no fatal flaws, or even weaknesses for that matter, and his game should translate very well to the next level as he’s able to do most everything on the floor, including shoot at an efficient rate from behind the arc. His athleticism is top-notch and when paired with his length (7-foot wingspan), creates an uncanny ability to finish and rebound, for his size, around the rim. It’s been reported that the Celtics have grown very fond of Jackson, but he was considered a consensus selection by the Nuggets for quite some time before getting injured, so don’t rule out the possibility of him playing in the Mile High City next year much to the dismay of Danny Ainge and the rest of the Celtics faithful.

10. Chandler Parsons

Estimated availability: 100 percent

Greatest strength: Versatility

Concerns: Scoring

Best case scenario: Mike Miller

I was torn on who to include for this final spot, as there are many candidates worthy of making the list. JuJuan Johnson, Tyler Honeycutt, Nolan Smith, Justin Harper and Jimmy Butler all received heavy consideration but at the end of the day Parsons was the most intriguing. This isn’t to say that any of the other candidates considered won’t go on to have better NBA careers than Parsons — in fact, there’s a very good chance all of them could — it’s just that, Parsons is probably the one guy I want to see succeed at the next level most (next to Jimmy Butler, who has a pretty amazing personal story). Come on, how awesome would it be to see a 6-10, floppy-haired, beach-boy looking small forward who has the handle of a point guard, come along and actually have a successful career in the NBA in route to posting a handful of triple-doubles along the way? OK, so maybe it wouldn’t be as cool as I’m attempting to make it out to be, but nevertheless, Parsons does have some talent. In his final season at Florida, he won SEC Player of the Year by averaging 11.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game, all while shooting .370 percent from behind the arc and .480 from the field. According to Draft Express, his adjusted stats per 40 minutes rank him top ten amongst NCAA small forwards in rebounding and first overall in assists. But the biggest reason I’m a fan of Parsons: He can play point guard, which means when George Karl decides he wants to run his security blanket two-point guard offense, we’d be able to trot a near 7-footer out there. On second though, this is probably wishful thinking.

Two days ago, the Miami Heat looked unbeatable as they tore through the schedule with ease, winning 19 of 20 games including 13 in a row on the road. Meanwhile, the Nuggets shaky season was starting to come off the rails. After a 3 game losing streak, Josh Kroenke and Masai Ujiri seemed all but certain to blow the lifeless roster up, punching fans in the gut by trading their 2 best players away for future assets and savings. Last night the Miami Heat were the vulnerable ones and the Nuggets were the team doing the punching.

I said in the preview yesterday that the Nuggets seemed to be catching the Heat at their weakest, off a west coast back to back in which their best player was injured. Lebron didn’t play last night and the Heat didn’t have the energy or depth to overcome it. For the second straight game, the Nuggets execute a balanced offensive attack and ride a scoring explosion from the bench to an easy blowout win.

The Heat looked to control tempo and used a zone defense early to start the game. The Nuggets responded with great passing to find the open man but were missing a lot of shots. On the other end, Miami’s offense looked flat footed and settled for too many jumpers.  The Nuggets ball movement was superior, and thanks to 9 early assists they took a 3 point lead into the second quarter despite the slow pace and neither team playing very well.

In the second quarter, George Karl again went to a small lineup featuring Arron Afflalo and four subs. Melvin Ely and Al Harrington did an admirable job defending Erick Dampier and the Heat “bigs”, with Ely filling the Chris Andersen role nicely. On Miami’s end, their already lethargic offense died when Dwyane Wade went to the bench. Mike Miller was passive, Chris Bosh couldn’t get his hands on the ball and the disinterested Heat couldn’t get anything going at all. A key stretch occurred around the 6 minute mark when Ty Lawson hit a driving layup in traffic, then stole the inbounds pass, grabbed an offensive board off his own miss and passed out to JR Smith for an open three. This gave Denver their first double digit lead and they never looked back.

The pace of the game picked up furiously and a confident Nuggets team couldn’t be stopped. An unconscious JR Smith started flame-throwing triples from deep. Arron Afflalo got physical with a tired Wade early and never allowed him to get going. Nene destroyed Ilgauskas and Dampier.  The Nuggets didn’t stop passing and playing hard en route to 31 assists and another 30-point lead going into the fourth. It was a total team effort and a sobering loss for Miami knocking them back down to earth.

It’s easy to look past these wins with the gloom of a post-Melo world hanging over. Denver is a good team at home and bad on the road. The Heat were on a tough back to back and missing the league MVP. Inspired by Jeremy’s post earlier, I can’t put together a clear case against anyone for the current dilemma all Nuggets fans face. I’ve been as cynical as my mind will allow me about this team’s future and the fact Melo won’t be a part of it. I know what the harsh reality of rebuilding means. Yet as a fan, against my best judgment I can’t help but believe in how special this team is – a team with a star at its core that can blow out Miami without really surprising anyone.  Time may be running out for this inconsistent, road weary, small-market underachieving team. But these are the best of times and the worst of times too, and I can’t help but enjoy every fleeting moment we have left.

Additional Nuggets

• Birdman didn’t play and will miss a week to rest his ailing back and knee. Shelden Williams and Melvin Ely stand to pick up the slack and the Nuggets might not miss much. Since he started breaking down last year, Birdman hasn’t had an impact defensively.
• During the TNT broadcast, “The Czar” Mike Fratello stated he had spoken to Nets front office people who disputed reports that Denver backed out of a trade they thought was agreed to. He said it was “not true at all. It never happened and nothing was agreed to.” Fratello is currently part of the local TV broadcast crew for New Jersey.
• JR Smith could have seriously boosted his shooting percentages, as he had a game going similar to Afflalo’s 31 point, 11-14 shooting performance vs Phoenix. Entering garbage time, JR smith chucked a few too many threes early in the shot clock and ended up “only” making 10/17 shots total
• During another point in the broadcast, the TNT cameras caught Masai Ujiri and Josh Kroenke in their club level seats, texting away furiously on their cell phones. I can only imagine TV sets all over the New Jersey area suffered verbal and physical abuse as a result.

We all know these are not normal circumstances, but from a purely numbers standpoint the game looks like an intriguing offensive showdown. Miami is 2nd in Offensive Efficiency and Denver is tied for fourth. The Nuggets lead the league in free throw rate with Miami coming in second. Miami is 7th in eFG% with Denver in 9th. The teams are tied for second in True Shooting percentage at 56.8, trailing only the 57.3 TS% of Boston.

Where the teams differ greatly of course is defense and pace. Miami owns the second best defense in the league, but they’re solidly first in effective field goal percentage allowed. They play at a slower pace and are built to stop fast breaking teams trying to beat them at their own game. They don’t allow threes and suffocate you with a methodical half court defense knowing they’re gonna get more foul shots and transition buckets than you by relying on D.

It’ll be interesting to see how Denver defends with Kenyon Martin back and looking as spry as he has all season last game. Him and Arron Afflalo can take some of the defensive workload off of Melo. The Heat are not a deep team, and with Lebron out are going to rely exclusively on Dwyane Wade to create offense. Mike Miller stands to get playing time if Lebron can’t go, but he hasn’t gotten into the rotation since returning from injury and Miami’s not sure how he fits in. If the Nuggets have a chance, they have to do it with smart shot selection and transition defense. If Melo and crew fall into their familiar habits of jogging back on defense while jawing at the officials, this won’t be close. They also need to attack Miami’s bench