Nuggets well positioned to seize first round home court advantage

March 29, 2013
by Joel

The Denver Nuggets recently clinched a berth in the 2013 NBA playoffs, meaning that they will soon be making their tenth consecutive postseason appearance. And while this is a very impressive streak, what they’ve managed to do less often is finish the regular season with a good enough record to secure home court advantage in the first round. (more…)

Posted on March 29, 2013 at 9:46 am | filed in Analysis, Playoffs | Tags: , , , , — 15 Comments

Rapid Reaction: Nuggets 81, Hornets 94

January 9, 2012
by Charlie
New Orleans Hornets 94 Final
Recap | Box Score		 81 Denver Nuggets
Nene, C 30 MIN | 3-8 FG | 3-6 FT | 11 REB | 4 AST | 9 PTS | -16
The one knock on Nene has always been his soft demeanor and his uncanny ability to disappear in big moments. That’s been the one caveat to his well-rounded game and tonight we saw all that all his athletic ability and efficiency comes at a price. Nene was a defensive sieve and after looking decent against Kaman and Okafor last Friday, he was dominated inside and couldn’t be bothered to put up much a fight.
Danilo Gallinari, SF 38 MIN | 6-12 FG | 1-2 FT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 15 PTS | -18
Gallinari didn’t play the fourth quarter till the game was well out of hand. Unfortunately that wasn’t the only factor that made his stat-sheet contributions an empty effort. Defensively Gallinari was awful against his fellow countryman Marco Bellinelli and any other Hornet lucky enough to find themselves guarded by him.
Timofey Mozgov, C 11 MIN | 1-3 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 4 PTS | +2
Not enough minutes to be a factor either way, but the Nuggets had some success guarding the rim and played better defense with him in the game. Nene and Mozgov continue to look like an odd pairing in the starting lineup. Karl’s quest to go small no matter how poor the matchup ultimately erased whatever small chance Mozgov had at making a difference against the Hornets dominant front line.
Arron Afflalo, SG 34 MIN | 2-8 FG | 8-10 FT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 13 PTS | 0
Not a good game. He was one of only two Nuggets putting up some kind of resistance on defense and it salvages his passing grade. Afflalo continues to set a poor example with questionable shot selection. Don’t be fooled by the 10 free throw attempts – Afflalo is a poor ballhandler and not a great finisher. The Nuggets need him playing his game and instead he forced offense all night – with poor results.
Ty Lawson, PG 35 MIN | 6-11 FG | 1-1 FT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 15 PTS | -9
Lawson was awful on Jarrett Jack. He made poor decisions with the ball and just couldn’t sustain what little momentum the Nuggets were able to get. There’s a caveat to Lawson’s grade – he injured his ankle towards the end of the first half and looked hobbled the rest of the way. I would’ve liked to see him rest and he probably should have, but Lawson was a warrior and battled through.
Al Harrington, PF 18 MIN | 1-4 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 2 AST | 2 PTS | -11
Is Al Harrington as good as his torrid start to the season suggests? Absolutely not, and it would have been totally unreasonable to believe so. Harrington won’t be able to defend consistently and that limits the impact of his offensive talents. When he can’t hit shots, it’s just pure disaster as we saw tonight. Really awful defense and if Al Harrington’s 13-year career is any indication, there’s more to come.
Andre Miller, PG 22 MIN | 0-5 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 3 AST | 0 PTS | -13
To get an ‘F’ it goes beyond having a bad game. That happens to everyone. You have to be actively hurting the team every minute to be this bad. Miller did just that, making selfish decisions with the ball and doing the same thing he’s been doing all year – shooting too much. Miller’s contributions to this team have been overstated and I don’t like the way he’s played all year. He is an odd fit on this team to be honest.
Chris Andersen, C 5 MIN | 0-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 0 AST | 0 PTS | -1
Incomplete. For whatever reason, he received a few charity minutes from George Karl and didn’t do enough to affect anything. Considering how poorly he’s played as of late, I’m not sure why Koufos didn’t get the call earlier.
Corey Brewer, SF 8 MIN | 2-5 FG | 0-0 FT | 3 REB | 0 AST | 5 PTS | 0
Incomplete. Despite earning minutes, Brewer was another charity case given a few scraps for no apparent reason. Unlike Birdman he probably deserved his shot but just didn’t do enough to make any fair judgement concerning his play.
DeMarre Carroll, F 1 MIN | 2-2 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 0 AST | 4 PTS | +6
He saw a minute in garbage time, perhaps confirming suspicions that Faried won’t see a single meaningful minute of court time no matter what. Incomplete.
Rudy Fernandez, SG 27 MIN | 6-12 FG | 0-0 FT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 14 PTS | -9
Fernandez made shots, but they were awful ones. I really would have liked to see Brewer eat into his minutes. Rudy plays with energy and reckless abandon, but he is not an explosive scorer and I fear that this coaching staff somehow believes he is. Energy and effort were there, but he just took terrible shots and he doesn’t take enough pride on the defensive end. Another empty statline.
Kosta Koufos, C 10 MIN | 0-0 FG | 0-0 FT | 3 REB | 0 AST | 0 PTS | +4
Incomplete. He was called in during the second half, but unfortunately the Nuggets were already getting blown out and had no shot. Like Mozgov, the coaching staff has zero trust in him and refused to give him a chance in a game dominated by size.

(more…)

Posted on January 9, 2012 at 11:07 pm | filed in Game Recap, Rapid Reaction | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , — 31 Comments

Nuggets News: Mini Road Trip Preview

January 6, 2012
by Charlie

After three straight solid home wins, the Nuggets are carrying nice momentum into their second road trip of the season. It’s a quick back-to-back in New Orleans and San Antonio against two teams which provide unique challenges for this new Nuggets team. While the Hornets and Spurs appear to be reeling from injuries, let’s not forget these are still road games against well-rested opponents.

(more…)

Posted on January 6, 2012 at 2:37 pm | filed in Game Preview, News, Random Stuff | Tags: , , , , , , , , , — 5 Comments

2010-2011 Game 62: Denver Nuggets 120 Charlotte Bobcats 80

March 2, 2011
by Kalen

When I sat down tonight to watch the Denver Nuggets take on the Charlotte Bobcats, I certainly did not expect to see the Nuggets pull off the fifth biggest margin of victory in franchise history. But… THAT JUST HAPPENED! (more…)

Posted on March 2, 2011 at 11:37 pm | filed in Game Recap | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , — 16 Comments

Nuggets get stung by Hornets at the Hive

October 30, 2010
by David

(I know, I know, the title is cheesy and overused but why go creative and really long when you can go short and simple?) The Nuggets dreams of an undefeated season were ended in the Bayou last night as they fell 101-95 to the New Orleans Hornets.  Despite a double-double performance from Carmelo Anthony (24 points and 10 boards) and solid outings from Chauncey (20 pts and 5 dimes) and the surprisingly effective Sheldon Williams (8 pts and 13 rebounds, leading the team in the latter category in back-to-back games), Denver couldn’t complete their second-half comeback. After being down by as much as 14 late in the second quarter, Denver took the lead at one point in the third and then jumped out to a six-point lead with 8 minutes to go in the ballgame. Then Chris Paul took over, dropping 10 points and 3 dimes in the last 10 minutes, and David West hit a couple tough fade-away jumpers over Al Harrington to seal the win.

The Nuggets jumped out to a great start early, going up 8-0 and looking good on D, forcing contested jumpers from the Hornets. Then Sheldon and Nene let Okafor have his way in the middle on both sides of the ball, and Emeka had some easy layups and forced contested shots in the paint. Nene knocked down a couple of 18-footers (showing some extended range that this Nuggets fan didn’t know he had) to help the bigs’ cause, but then the pick-and roll defense on Paul (and later Jerryd Bayless and Willie Green) started to fall apart. NOLA’s guards were getting into the paint WAY too easy, leading to some easy buckets (Green’s baseline slam and J-Bay’s and-1 layup on JR) and kick-outs for threes (Marcus Thornton hit back-to-back threes to stretch the Hornets’ lead to 14).

On the positive side Ty Lawson made Chris Paul look like Anthony Carter (which isn’t easy to do), burning him to the basket a few times and doing a respectable job distributing the rock. And despite his struggles on the defensive end, Al Harrington looks good off the bench, giving the 2nd unit some semblance of offense when JR struggles to find his shot.

In the second half Melo took over, hitting his patented mid-range jumpers and getting to the basket a few times as well. And as one RMC writer predicted in his season preview ( I won’t be doing too much self-promotion, I promise) Aaron Afflalo continues to break out of his shell, hitting some shots when his teammates can’t find the range; if he can prove to/remain a viable threat on offense, it will make this team much more dangerous late in games and allow George Karl to keep him in for defense while not losing anything on the offensive end. And while all you JR Swish fans may grimace when I say this, it’s a good thing for this team when Afflalo is in the game late and getting starters minutes over JR, because I’m 99% sure he will not be a Nugget next year.

Next up for the Nuggets is the Houston Rockets, who will welcome Denver to the Toyota Center for their home opener tonight at 6:30 MST. Houston is coming off back-to-back road losses to open the season in two very winnable games against the Lakers and Warriors. Denver needs to play better D against Luis Scola then they did against D-West, because as good as West’s mid-range game is, Scola is a much better back-to-the-basket player, can hit the hook shot with either hand, and is a better passer (which means watch out for the kickout to Kevin Martin or Aaron Brooks). Houston has some absolute snipers on the perimeter  (the aforementioned K-Mart and Brooks), and even if one is cold the other could easily drop 30+.

They signed Erick Dampier yesterday to join Yao and Brad Miller at center, so Nene and Sheldon will have to step it up even more with Rick Adelman being able to rotate those guys at will to keep his bigs fresh. If Denver can control the penetrate and kick better than they did last night, keep their bigs out of foul trouble (so Melvin Ely isn’t matched up with Scola) and get some offensive production from their bench (I’m talking to you JR…and Al needs 15+ too) they have a great chance of coming back home 1-1 on their mini-roadtrip before they welcome Dallas to “The Can” on Wednesday night.

Posted on October 30, 2010 at 5:14 pm | filed in Game Recap, Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , — 2 Comments

2009-10 Game 69: Denver Nuggets 93 – New Orleans Hornets 80

March 19, 2010
by Jeremy

Box Score | Highlights

The Denver Nuggets walloped the tired and lethargic New Orleans Hornets.  Beat them to a pulp.  No contest.  Then the second half started.  The Nuggets saw their scoring output slashed in half from the first half to the second scoring 62 in an impressive first half followed by 31 in an ugly forgettable second.  The second half was nothing new to Nuggets fans.  After playing a near perfect offensive first half scoring in the paint at will, the second half was the polar opposite with plenty of long jumpers that should have never been attempted.

After seeming full of life in the first 24 minutes Denver looked like the solitary day of rest was not enough to recover from their four games in five nights stretch that ended with a win over the Washington Wizards.

The big news from the game was George Karl was forced to miss his first home game due to the effects of his battle with cancer.  If you have not already, read this article by Ricky Reilly that chronicles exactly what Karl is going through.

The other piece of big news is Kenyon Martin said that his knee is feeling better and is scheduled to start riding a stationary bike on Monday in his recovery from a patella tendon injury.  Riding a bike is a long way from returning to the court, but it is progress.

In happier news, Carmelo was spectacular although it was not his scoring that left me all atwitter, but his rebounding.  Carmelo tallied a career high 18 rebounds including another career high 14 defensive rebounds.

For more insight on the game check out the Daily Dime where I participated in the chat and whipped up a little piece on the Nuggets much maligned mental toughness (item number two).

Advanced Game Stats

Pace Factor: 90.5

Offensive Efficiency: 102.8 – lowest rating since the back to back losses in Los Angeles and Phoenix two and a half weeks ago.

Defensive Efficiency: 91.0 – fourth lowest rating of the season and only the second time they have posted back to back sub 100 defensive efficiency ratings this season.

Featured Blogs: Hornets 24/7 | At the Hive

Outdated Bonus Links: NBA Playbook breaks down the Nuggets’ collapse in Houston

Posted on March 19, 2010 at 1:52 am | filed in Game Recap | Tags: , , , — Comments Off

Denver Nuggets Win Two More on the Road

March 15, 2010
by Jeremy

Denver at New Orleans – Box Score | Highlights

Denver at Memphis – Box Score | Highlights

The Denver Nuggets have won six games in a row and are now back above .500 on the road after back to back wins in New Orleans and Memphis. The common denominator in both games was Denver’s ability to make plays in the fourth quarter however both games had different stories to tell.

Through three and a half quarters the Hornets game felt much like the previous loss the Nuggets suffered at the hands of the Hornets in New Orleans earlier this season. A close game where Denver was obviously the better team, but they simply could not get their act together long enough to pull ahead. Then with the score tied at 86 and just under six minutes Denver finally took control of a game that was waiting for one team or the other to claim ownership of the contest.

The Nuggets received a gift when rookie Marcus Thornton drove directly into Darius Songalia, who had just set a screen for him, causing a turnover that triggered a two on one break for J.R. and Melo. The result was a lay in for Anthony. On the other end New Orleans settles for a second jumper by Songalia in about 70 seconds that missed. Chauncey received the outlet, sets up on the left wing, drove left and fed Nene at the rim. Nene is fouled and makes both free throws. The teams trade baskets and then Nene tips two passes on one possession both of which were intended for Emeka Okafor and prevented him from getting an open layup. The ball eventually finds its way to Okafor who misses what is now a contested jump hook instead of a dunk. Nene grabs the rebound and throws a beautiful outlet pass to J.R. who does his best to screw up another two on one break with Carmelo, but Melo is there for the rebound and finishes after adroitly making contact with Okafor to avoid getting his shot blocked. Before New Orleans can catch their breath Chauncey steals the inbounds pass and is fouled. Billups dropped in both free throws the Nuggets then parlay a very good defensive possession into a 30 foot desperation three pointer by Thornton which misses. Chauncey then closed out the game deciding 12-2 run with a drive and dish to Nene for an emphatic dunk that announced to all those watching that it was not going to be the Hornets’ night.

The Hornets were able to stay in the game thanks to a big first half by Thornton and a big third quarter from West. However, once those two options failed to produce in the fourth quarter the Nuggets were able to overwhelm the undermanned Hornets with little plays such as forcing turnovers, deflecting passes, and getting into the lane on offense.

The biggest surprise of the game was the way the Hornets chose to defend Carmelo. New Orleans has typically doubled Carmelo as soon as he would catch the ball and their aggressive scheme has been largely successful. In two games against the Hornets this season Melo had shot only 14-44 and the two teams split two close games, both teams winning at home. For some reason the Hornets decided to go away from that attacking defense and played Carmelo largely one on one choosing to play more of a prerotating scheme that the Lakers have been successful with. The difference is the Hornets do not have the same quality of personnel as the Lakers do. Melo was able to find space for his midrange jumper and scored 32 points on 13-27. The funny thing is as poorly as Denver shot from behind the arc, 3-22 to be exact, had New Orleans been aggressive with Carmelo and not allowed him to play so much one on one they might have cruised to an easy win.

Two other comments that need to be mentioned are, why on God’s green earth do the Nuggets insist on shooting threes on nights when it is obvious none of them can make any? The Nuggets had the advantage all night when they drove into the lane and as I am sure you noticed in the breakdown of their fourth quarter surge above Chauncey was able to get Nene two great looks the two times he drove at the rim. Secondly, J.R. Smith deserves credit for his fourth quarter defense on Thornton. Smith was all over Thornton as New Orleans ran him through and around screens. On one occasion Thronton caught the pass and jumped to shoot only to see J.R. flying at him so close that he had to dump the ball off towards David West and the play nearly resulted in a turnover.

The next night in Memphis instead of a defensive battle, the Nuggets found themselves in a wild shootout.

The Grizzlies jumped out on the Nuggets early on with a combination of layups and dunks to start the game off and then a hoard of threes to close out the first quarter. The Nuggets were obviously out of sync on defense as they allowed the Grizzlies’ bigs to roll into the lane and get great position at will. The Nuggets had just enough offense to stay close while their defense struggled.

Then late in the third quarter the Nuggets found their stride on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets were down 83-77 with two minutes remaining in the third quarter and went on a 20-2 run to smother the any hope that Memphis had for a victory.

The three keys to the Nuggets run were their bigs ability to finally seal off the middle and effectively eliminate the easy shots Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol had been getting all night long. Secondly, Denver got out and ran with Anthony Carter pushing the pace. Thirdly, J.R. Smith turned white hot and splashed three straight threes during the run.

It did not end there though as the Nuggets continued to explode offensively and pushed that 12 point lead up to 24 before taking their foot off the gas. J.R. would convert on five of seven threes over the final 14 minutes including five in a row. Denver wound up outscoring Memphis 48-25 over the closing 14 minutes.

I was growing concerned about Anthony Carter as he has been forced to log minutes in seven consecutive games.  I have believed the key to his effectiveness has been fresh legs and with every passing game that advantage dissipates.  Against New Orleans I though he was starting to look a little sluggish.  Defensively he began reaching which is a sign of fatigue due to the fact it gets more difficult to move your feet.  However in Memphis he was very good, especially down the stretch when his desire to push the pace helped earn Denver some easy scores.  Now if we can just get him to stop shooting threes…

Johan Petro has continued to play respectably.  He did struggled a little defending players like David West and Zach Randolph, but most players do.  Petro continues to rebound pulling down ten boards twice in the past four games.  Plus he has scored 23 points on 14 shots during those same four games.  He has struggled to catch the ball while moving in the past, but has shown some improvement in that area as of late.

One quirky thing to note from the win in Memphis is it was the first game all season where Carmelo attempted fewer than three free throws. In fact, he did not get to the line once. The last time that happened in the regular season was December 12, 2008 in Cleveland although he did have two games in the 2009 playoffs where he did not attempt a free throw, game two against New Orleans and game five against Dallas and somewhat surprisingly both games were wins.

The good news in my mind, apart from winning on the road without two of their top eight players, was that there were no signs of moping or any indication of a lack of purpose as we saw early on in Minnesota. Denver played hard from start to finish in both games. They seem to be comfortable with Adrian Dantley and while Dantley did not have any strokes of genius that swung either game as he did in Minnesota when he went small, he certainly has not done anything to slow the team down.

Denver at New Orleans Stats and Links:

Pace Factor: 96.3

Defensive Efficiency: 97.7

Offensive Efficiency: 105.9

Hornets 24/7 | At the Hive

Denver at Memphis Stats and Links:

Pace Factor: 87.2

Defensive Efficiency: 122.2 – not good, but…

Offensive Efficiency: 143.4 – best efficiency rating of the season topping their 139.1 versus Dallas

3 Shades of Blue

Posted on March 15, 2010 at 1:22 am | filed in Game Recap | Tags: , , , , , , — Comments Off

2009-10 Game 43: Denver Nuggets 116 – New Orleans Hornets 110 OT

January 25, 2010
by Jeremy

Box Score | Highlights

Once again the Denver Nuggets paid the price for not getting the job done. The penalty was not another loss in a game they should have won, the Nuggets were able to defeat the shorthanded New Orleans Hornets, playing without former all-star David West, 116-110 in overtime last night, but it was an ankle injury suffered by leading scorer Carmelo Anthony. With Denver forced to play an extra five minutes in a game that never should have extended past regulation time Carmelo rolled his left ankle coming down from an attempted jumper and is now out for Monday’s game against Charlotte.

To me the Nuggets’ victory was a very frustrating one as I was constantly aghast at the decision making at both ends of the floor. On defense Denver continually slid behind screens and sagged off of shooters on the perimeter continually giving up open shots. On one occasion in the fourth quarter Carmelo had switched onto Chris Paul and was so worried about trying to challenge the pass into the post he kept jumping back and forth getting ready to spring into the air to steal the ball. He continued to drop deeper and deeper off of Chris Paul, a player who shoots almost 41% from behind the arc, and finally Paul, basically left alone as Melo kept crouching and shifting around, took the unchallenged shot. Fortunately for Denver it rimmed out, but it was just one example of some of the curious decisions that were made at that end of the floor.

Honestly, even with the handful of brain farts Denver displayed I thought they played very well defensively. New Orleans had 50 points with 6:39 left in the second quarter, but apart from a flat opening five or six minutes, the Nuggets were hustling, rotating and playing solid defense. The Hornets were just hitting difficult shots. Sometimes that happens, but streaks like the Hornets were on rarely last and after James Posey hit a jumper for their fiftieth point the difficult shots they were taking stopped falling and they only managed to score four more points over the final 6:39 of the half and one of those points was on a technical free throw.  In fact, over the final 41:39, which is 21 seconds short of three full quarters of basketball, the Hornets only scored 60 points.

Offensively, the Nuggets were far to content to hoist jumpers of their own when they possessed a quickness advantage with nearly every matchup on the court. The Hornets played their scheme very well as they doubled Melo, stayed close to the lane and tried to trick Denver into playing a perimeter game. For much of the game Denver complied as evidenced by their 27 three point attempts.

Still, I was encouraged by the Nuggets effort on defense and they absolutely destroyed the Hornets on the boards 61-37. I thought Chris Andersen played his best game of the season as he was all over the glass, played the pick and roll reasonably well and was able to catch a pass in the lane from Ty Lawson that he usually fumbles away.

All in all it was a win, a frustrating one, but a win none the less.

Additional Game 43 Nuggets

  • I believe the play made by Devin Brown that resulted in Carmelo spraining his ankle was a dirty play (see it at the 1:57 mark of this video).  Brown challenged the shot, but then continued to move into Melo’s feet and the result was a sprained ankle and at least one missed game.  Defenders should not have to give ground, but I would like to see the league review plays like that one and hand out a one game suspension with escalating penalties after that if a player is found to have stepped into an opponents legs like Brown did.  It is not good hard nosed defense and it is not something that the league should allow.
  • The Hornets double Carmelo as aggressively as anyone, and I do not know why more teams do not use that tactic more often. The Hornets send a double team as soon as Melo would catch a pass and most of the time he would sit and let the double team come. However, when Carmelo was aggressive and attacked either the on the ball defender or the defender rotating to double him, he was able to get in the lane and get to the rim. If he were to be aggressive like that prior to the arrival of the second defender, it might serve as a deterrent to use that style of defense.
  • I do not know Carmelo Anthony. I have never met him. I have never seen where he grew up or spent a second with anyone who is close to him so take this with a grain of salt, but I think Carmelo was pretty content with his play on offense because he was able to tally 30 points. I am not sure the fact that it took him 28 shots to get there really bothers him. Granted, he had a lot of shots that looked good that just rolled off the rim, but with the way the Hornets were defending him he seemed like he was determined to still get his points. I firmly believe the Nuggets would have been better off had Melo looked to use the aggressive double teaming against the Hornets against them and used his talents to get his teammates open shots instead of working his tail off to find some space against the defense to get off another contested 16 footer. I would be much happier if Carmelo seemed happier to drop in 16 or 18 points, dish out eight or ten assists while taking 13 or 14 shots instead of bagging his 30.
  • In two games against the Hornets Carmelo has only made 14 of 44 shots. Like I said, I do not know why more teams do not aggressively double Carmelo.
  • One turning point in the game was a blown dunk by Ty Lawson. With the Nuggets up 88-80 Carmelo was able to tip the ball away from Posey and the ball bounced to Lawson who passed it up to Melo who stumbled and had to tip it back towards Lawson to keep it away from Chris Paul. Lawson caught the ball at the top of the circle and it was just he and Melo. Ty tried to throw down a two handed dunk instead of either laying it in or handing off to Melo for a dunk. Lawson missed, was called for offensive basket interference as he touched the ball while hanging on the rim, and two minutes later the Hornets had scored six straight points and it would be nip and tuck the rest of the way.
  • Chauncey has made a lot of threes as a Denver Nugget, but had not really been Mr. Big Shot until the past three games. He saved Denver in Golden State with some huge threes down the stretch and again last night he made two huge threes in the last 2:14 to get the Nuggets into overtime.
  • Carmelo has made a hoard of very difficult game winning shots in his career. He missed the easiest one he has ever had at the end of regulation though as the ball bounced back to him after his initial miss and he had a wide open four footer that was a bit too far offline to the right.
  • Jeff Bower deserves a good deal of credit for the way he has the Hornets playing. They were left for dead when the fired Byron Scott and are certainly not the most talented team in the league, but they play unselfishly and together on both ends of the floor, something the Nuggets could take a lesson in.
  • Looking at the stats, there were a lot of numbers that were very un-Nugget like. Despite pulling down 41 defensive rebounds Denver only converted eight fast break points. They only forced eight turnovers, with only five steals, and had but one block. Those are categories Denver used to dominate in the past even though none of them on their own was necessarily a barometer of wins and losses.

Featured Blogs: Hornets 24/7 | At the Hive

Posted on January 25, 2010 at 1:14 am | filed in Game Recap | Tags: , , , , , — 1 Comment

Predicting the 2008-09 Season – How Did I Do?

September 29, 2009
by Jeremy

Before we begin the season previews and start looking forward to next season, I am going to look back at last season. I made a multitude of predictions over the previous 12 plus months and I started wondering how accurate I was. Did I successfully predict how well Chris Andersen played? What about the Nuggets acquisition of Chauncey Billups or how many games the Milwaukee Bucks would win?

The only way to know if I knew what I was talking about is to go back through thousands and thousands of words and pluck out all the things I said would happen no matter how hair brained or how mundane and assign a verdict.

Here is the first of four posts full of things I thought would happen. We will start by looking at my general preseason projections and game by game forecasts. Tomorrow we will look at my projected season records for all 30 teams. We will then move on to my projected personnel moves and then finish with my projections for player performances.

Prediction: I believe the Denver Nuggets must alter their style of play if they are ever to become a true championship contender. I love the Denver Mile High Mystique as much as anyone, but I strongly believe the Nuggets must evaluate the overall philosophy of their franchise.

Verdict: I am going to say correct. The Nuggets still ran, which is fine, but they dropped from their perennial spot of first or second in pace down to fifth, it may not sound like much, but they were closer to the eleventh fastest paced team, Milwaukee, than they were to the second fastest paced team, New York. The greater focus on defense and working for better shots on offense was a great recipe.

Prediction: I might be completely wrong, but if we are ever going to see the best of the Nuggets and the best of George Karl, it has to be this season.

Verdict: Correct, the embarrassing sweep at the hand of the Lakers in 2008 shook the players and forced them to deal with how far away they were from contending. That led them to push themselves to great things last season.

Prediction: The [Western Conference] number eight seed will make the playoffs with 44 to 46 wins next season.

Verdict: Incorrect, Utah was the eighth seed with 48 wins.

Prediction: The lower class [of the Western Conference] will be better. Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Sacramento will fall into the categories of improved to much improved. The Clippers may have lost Elton Brand, but they played most of last season without him anyway and the additions of Baron Davis and Marcus Camby (although I have a difficult time buying them as a playoff contender) will clearly make them more competitive.

Verdict: Incorrect, all three combined to win only one more game than the Lakers, 66 to 65. However, the Wolves were 10-4 in January only to have Al Jefferson suffered a season ending injury in early February and the Thunder were a very improved team going 18-27 from January 10 through the end of the season. The Clippers were simply abysmal, but at least I did not pick them to make the playoffs like many others did.

Prediction: Out of the teams that finished outside the playoffs looking in last season the only team that I believe needs to be taken seriously is Portland.

Verdict: Correct, Portland was the only non playoff team from 2007-08 to win more than 30 games in the west.

Prediction: Some believe Golden State can compete for a playoff spot, but I do not see it.

Verdict: Correct, Golden State finished 19 games out of the playoffs. I need to keep making predictions against nebulous conglomerates such as “some.”

Prediction: I believe the Nuggets and Blazers will make the postseason.

Verdict: Correct, both did.

Prediction: This season is the year that they [Denver] will be better off having a representative in Secaucus, NJ instead of having their representatives massacred at the hands of the Lakers or Hornets in the first round.

Verdict: Wildly incorrect, but had they not made the Billups trade, I think that prediction would have been the truth. I was wrong about the Hornets too.

Prediction: If you are looking for a team to fall apart this season how about the Clippers? They have a point guard who is famous for his horrid shot selection paired with a control freak head coach. They lost their best player in what might have been a far more incompetent negotiating process by the front office than anything the Nuggets have been guilty of and God’s Gift to Defense Marcus Camby is not going to play a single game in the preseason due to a heel injury. Oh yea, and do not forget that Chris Kaman is coming off of a season where he played only 56 games plus he put some extra wear and tear on his body by playing for Germany in the Olympics.

Verdict: Correct, they were without a doubt the biggest disappointment in the West other than perhaps the Suns. By the way, that was in response to ESPN.com’s NBA writers naming the Nuggets the most likely team to self combust.

Prediction: [After game 23] they [the Nuggets] face three straight back to back sets against some very good teams which will tell us a lot about how good this team can really be.

Verdict: Incorrect, Denver was only 2-4 in those six games (at Dallas, at Houston, Cleveland, at Phoenix, Portland and at Portland), but the season turned out OK. Of course, I could go the other way and say they only went 2-4 and that showed us they were not going to be NBA champs.

Prediction: The Nuggets have already clinched a tie with the Mavs for the season series, but I believe they will certainly win at least one of the two games left to clinch the tiebreaker in case it should come into play.

Verdict: Correct, the Nuggets swept the Mavs in the regular season.

Prediction: I do not like their chances against the Spurs or the Hornets (especially now that Tyson Chandler is back in the Big Easy) and I would not be very confident should the Nuggets face off against the Jazz [02/20/09].

Verdict: Incorrect, in defense of my lack of faith, this was following a blowout loss against the Bulls and Tyson Chandler was healthy and looking strong and Manu Ginobili had not yet been injured.

Prediction: A big thanks to Detroit and Boston for blowing games against the Spurs and Jazz tonight.  Way to go bozos.  I will forgive the Celtics as long as they lose to the Nuggets next Monday.

Verdict: Incorrect, Boston beat the Nuggets, but I actually found it in my heart to forgive them, but I am not going to count it one against myself.

Prediction: With the talent on this team and with the schedule providing them with a plethora of winnable games I feel very good guaranteeing that the Nuggets will make the playoffs [03/10/09].

Verdict: Correct.

Prediction: With the stink bomb the Nuggets dropped on us the past couple of weeks they have almost completely destroyed any chance of earning home court advantage in the playoffs. I have a difficult time envisioning a scenario where they catch the Spurs, Jazz or Hornets. Plus with the loss last night they have lost the season series to the Rockets making it even more difficult to surpass them in the standings.  In order to earn home court advantage the Nuggets would have to overtake two of those four teams.  At this point almost any best case scenario we can construct leaves the Nuggets playing either the Spurs, Jazz or Hornets in the first round.  Because of that I am afraid there is little hope of Denver reaching the second round [also 03/10/09].

Verdict: Absolutely 100% incorrect. Out of all the incorrect predictions I made, this is the one that bugs me the most. I wrote it following the Nuggets two point home loss to the Rockets that was their fifth loss in six games. Of course they went on to win 13 of 14 to push themselves into second in the conference. I hate that I wrote it, but thank God I did because it clearly turned the Nuggets season around. Honestly, I try my best to not get caught up in the emotion of a season, but I also have to write what I believe. If I end up with egg on my face, well, when life gives you eggs, break them and drink them like Rocky (Balboa, not the mountain lion or the squirrel).

Prediction: The Nuggets will beat the Hornets in seven games because Chris Paul will not lose game 6 at home.

Verdict: Incorrect, although I still do not think Paul would have let the series end in New Orleans.

Prediction: Should the Nuggets win [Game 4 versus New Orleans], I think they win game five to close out the series.

Verdict: Correct…

Prediction: Logic tells me tonight [Game 5 versus New Orleans] will be nothing short of a formality.

Verdict: Correct, Denver rolled over the Hornets by 19.

Prediction: David West will not make another All-Star team.

Verdict: It may be presumptuous of me, but I am going to call this one correct.

Prediction: The Denver Nuggets will beat the Dallas Mavericks in six games.

Verdict: Incorrect, the Nuggets won in five, but they did win.

Prediction: I expect the Nuggets to close this series out [versus Dallas] just as they did against New Orleans and six hours from now we will be celebrating the Nuggets’ first appearance in the conference finals since 1985.

Verdict: Correct, the Nuggets did indeed close out the Mavs in five games, although it was a little closer than game 5 against the Hornets.

Prediction: My official prediction is the Lakers in seven games.

Verdict: Incorrect, partly due to the Nuggets late game ineptness the Lakers won in six.

Prediction: I do believe the Nuggets will win [game 2 versus the Lakers].

Verdict: Correct, despite literally throwing game one away, Denver won game two.

Prediction: As you would expect I think the Nuggets will win [game 6 versus the Lakers] tonight.

Verdict: Um…really incorrect. The Lakers rolled the Nuggets in game 6 at the Pepsi Center.

The final tally for the first section of projections is 12 out of 23 were correct, good for a rate of 52.2%. Not bad, but not great either. Part two coming tomorrow.

Posted on September 29, 2009 at 12:00 pm | filed in Random Stuff | Tags: , , , , , , , — Comments Off

Nuggets/Hornets Game 5 Additional Thoughts

April 30, 2009
by Jeremy

At this point I do not have a lot to add about last night’s game.  Mentally I have switched over to the next series, which is nice to be able to say. 

 

  • Byron Scott finally implemented some new wrinkles in game five and it was the first time I have ever seen a team stop going to their bread and butter play because the Nuggets’ defense had shut it down.  In the first quarter the Hornets ran almost no pick and roll plays for Chris Paul.  They ran a lot of sets designed to get Peja and David West shots.  It worked for a brief time as both Peja and West made their shots early.  After the first quarter New Orleans went back to their old ways.  I do not know if they wanted to try to get the supporting cast involved early or if the idea was to try to save Paul for what was hopefully going to be a close second half.  Strangely enough it worked as the first quarter of game five proved to be the only quarter that New Orleans outscored Denver at the Pepsi Center.
  • It cannot be overstated how much Melo has grown over the previous four games.  There has been some hay made over his improved defense during the regular season where he basically moved his mindset from we will probably get the ball back at some point in the next 24 seconds to I am supposed to guard that guy there and I am going to make sure I know when he is moving.  In the playoffs we saw Melo’s defensive awareness and effort increase to a whole new level.  We still get the occasional play like the one in game five where he ran at Peja in the corner and ended up in the Hornets’ bench from where he chose to watch the rest of the possession that resulted in Peja cutting to the basket and getting a pass for a layup plus a foul on Dahntay Jones.  Those lapses are becoming few and far between and I believe we can expect more of the same from Melo on defense.
  • Beyond Melo’s defensive improvement we saw a transformation from him on offense as well.  In game one we were subjected to old playoff Melo where he was getting doubled and for the most part took bad shots.  For some reason in game two he suddenly decided that when he was doubled he could get his teammates open shots by passing the ball.  Novel idea, wish I had thought of it.  Going further in Games three and four he was much more aggressive in attacking the defense off the dribble.  In game five, especially in the second half, Melo was a completely different player than we had seen in the past.  Fifteen of Carmelo’s 25 shots came from in close and he made ten of them.  Of the five he missed, three were blocked.  Seeing him slice and dice the Hornets defense was a beautiful sight.
  • I thought Chauncey played a great game even though his scoring was nowhere near the level he produced in the first two games of the series.  I much prefer a Billups who shoots less and assists more and he ended the night with two more assists, 11, than shot attempts, 9.  Denver is now 7-0 when that happens. 
  • Despite the fact that he shot 7-14 from the three point line against the Hornets Linas Kleiza did not get off the bench in game five.  It goes to show how potent the Nuggets’ offense is that they can leave him on the bench and still produce a highly effective and efficient performance.
  • Looking at the defensive numbers the Nuggets posted they held the Hornets to 84.2 points per game for the series on 39.6% shooting.  New Orleans’ effective field goal percentage (taking into account three point shooting) was a lowly 43.9% and their true shooting percentage (accounting for free throw shooting) was a miniscule 51.8%.  Denver’s defensive efficiency was a sterling 95.1.
  • The Nuggets are now riding a 13 game home winning streak and the crowd seemed to be great from watching on television.  Things should only get better in that department as Denver goes deeper and deeper into the playoffs.

There, now that that’s done we can start focusing on Dallas.

Posted on April 30, 2009 at 1:44 pm | filed in Game Recap | Tags: , , , , , — Comments Off

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